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Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Previous evaluation of rainfall estimation by satellite algorithms showed an insufficient over Northern Tunisia. That was why we tried the WRF. We selected four heavy rainy days. For each day, 99 combinations of Cu and PBL are simulated. The sensitivity study highlighted the large difference in the estimation by the different schemes. The use of several verification techniques was extremely helpful to choose the best combinations for each event. The ensemble method gave very satisfying results.
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https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-376
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-376

  05 Jan 2021

05 Jan 2021

Review status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal NHESS.

Sensitivity of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) to downscaling extreme events over Northern Tunisia

Saoussen Dhib1, Víctor Homar2, Zoubeida Bargaoui1, and Mariadelmar Vich2 Saoussen Dhib et al.
  • 1Laboratory of Hydraulic and Environmental Modeling (LMHE), Université de Tunis El-Manar (UTM), Ecole Nationale d’ingénieurs de Tunis (ENIT), Tunis, 1002, Tunisia
  • 2Meteorology Group, Physics Department, Universitat de les Illes Balears, Palma de Mallorca, 7003, Spain

Abstract. Rainfall is one of the most important variables for water and flood management. We investigate the capacity of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) to dynamically downscale the ECMWF Re-Analysis data for Northern Tunisia. This study aims to examine the sensitivity of WRF rainfall estimates to different Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) and Cumulus Physics (Cu) schemes. The verification scheme consists of three statistical criteria (Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Pearson correlation, and the ratio bias coefficient). Moreover, the FSS coefficient (fraction skill score) and the quality coefficient SAL (structure amplitude latitude) are calculated. The database is composed of four heavy events covering an average of 318 rainfall stations. We mean by heavy event, each event occurred a rainfall of more than 50 mm per observed day at least in one rainfall station. The sensitivity study showed that there is not a best common combination scheme (PBL and Cu) for all the events. The average of the best 10 combinations for each event is adopted to get the ensemble map. We conclude that some schemes are sensitive and others less sensitive. The best three performing schemes for PBL and Cu parametrizations are selected for future rainfall estimation by WRF over Northern Tunisia.

Saoussen Dhib et al.

Status: open (until 18 Feb 2021)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse

Saoussen Dhib et al.

Saoussen Dhib et al.

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Short summary
Previous evaluation of rainfall estimation by satellite algorithms showed an insufficient over Northern Tunisia. That was why we tried the WRF. We selected four heavy rainy days. For each day, 99 combinations of Cu and PBL are simulated. The sensitivity study highlighted the large difference in the estimation by the different schemes. The use of several verification techniques was extremely helpful to choose the best combinations for each event. The ensemble method gave very satisfying results.
Citation
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