Articles | Volume 18, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2127-2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2127-2018
Research article
 | 
10 Aug 2018
Research article |  | 10 Aug 2018

Understanding epistemic uncertainty in large-scale coastal flood risk assessment for present and future climates

Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Dimitrios Bouziotas, Alessio Giardino, Laurens M. Bouwer, Lorenzo Mentaschi, Evangelos Voukouvalas, and Luc Feyen

Related authors

Numerical modelling framework for assessing dune effectiveness against coastal inundation
Italo R. Lopes, Ivan Federico, Michalis Vousdoukas, Luisa Perini, Salvatore Causio, Giovanni Coppini, Maurilio Milella, Nadia Pinardi, and Lorenzo Mentaschi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1695,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1695, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Short summary
Transformed-Stationary EVA 2.0: A Generalized Framework for Non-Stationary Joint Extremes Analysis
Mohammad Hadi Bahmanpour, Alois Tilloy, Michalis Vousdoukas, Ivan Federico, Giovanni Coppini, Luc Feyen, and Lorenzo Mentaschi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-843,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-843, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS).
Short summary
Assessing storm surge model performance: what error indicators can measure the model's skill?
Rodrigo Campos-Caba, Jacopo Alessandri, Paula Camus, Andrea Mazzino, Francesco Ferrari, Ivan Federico, Michalis Vousdoukas, Massimo Tondello, and Lorenzo Mentaschi
Ocean Sci., 20, 1513–1526, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1513-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/os-20-1513-2024, 2024
Short summary
Sea Level Rise in Europe: Impacts and consequences
Roderik van de Wal, Angélique Melet, Debora Bellafiore, Paula Camus, Christian Ferrarin, Gualbert Oude Essink, Ivan D. Haigh, Piero Lionello, Arjen Luijendijk, Alexandra Toimil, Joanna Staneva, and Michalis Vousdoukas
State Planet, 3-slre1, 5, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-5-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-3-slre1-5-2024, 2024
Short summary
Merging modelled and reported flood impacts in Europe in a combined flood event catalogue for 1950–2020
Dominik Paprotny, Belinda Rhein, Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Paweł Terefenko, Francesco Dottori, Simon Treu, Jakub Śledziowski, Luc Feyen, and Heidi Kreibich
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3983–4010, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3983-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3983-2024, 2024
Short summary

Related subject area

Risk Assessment, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies, Socioeconomic and Management Aspects
Unravelling the capacity–action gap in flood risk adaptation
Annika Schubert, Anne von Streit, and Matthias Garschagen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1621–1653, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1621-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1621-2025, 2025
Short summary
Mapping vulnerability to climate change for spatial planning in the region of Stuttgart
Joanna M. McMillan, Franziska Göttsche, Joern Birkmann, Rainer Kapp, Corinna Schmidt, Britta Weisser, and Ali Jamshed
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1573–1596, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1573-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1573-2025, 2025
Short summary
Assessing the impact of early warning and evacuation on human losses during the 2021 Ahr Valley flood in Germany using agent-based modelling
André Felipe Rocha Silva, Julian Cardoso Eleutério, Heiko Apel, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1501–1520, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1501-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1501-2025, 2025
Short summary
Modeling Regional Production Capacity Loss Rates Considering Response Bias: Insights from a Questionnaire Survey on Zhengzhou Flood
Lijiao Yang, Yan Luo, Zilong Li, and Xinyu Jiang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3923,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3923, 2025
Short summary
Adaptive behavior of farmers under consecutive droughts results in more vulnerable farmers: a large-scale agent-based modeling analysis in the Bhima basin, India
Maurice W. M. L. Kalthof, Jens de Bruijn, Hans de Moel, Heidi Kreibich, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1013–1035, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1013-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1013-2025, 2025
Short summary

Cited articles

Alfieri, L., Burek, P., Feyen, L., and Forzieri, G.: Global warming increases the frequency of river floods in Europe, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2247–2260, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2247-2015, 2015. 
Alfieri, L., Feyen, L., Salamon, P., Thielen, J., Bianchi, A., Dottori, F., and Burek, P.: Modelling the socio-economic impact of river floods in Europe, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1401–1411, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1401-2016, 2016. 
Alfieri, L., Bisselink, B., Dottori, F., Naumann, G., de Roo, A., Salamon, P., Wyser, K., and Feyen, L.: Global projections of river flood risk in a warmer world, Earth's Future, 5, 171–182, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016EF000485, 2017. 
Almeida, L. P., Ferreira, Ó., and Pacheco, A.: Thresholds for morphological changes on an exposed sandy beach as a function of wave height, Earth Surf. Proc. Land., 36, 523–532, 2011a. 
Almeida, L. P., Ferreira, Ó., Vousdoukas, M. I., and Dodet, G.: Historical variation and trends in storminess along the Portuguese South Coast, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 2407–2417, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-2407-2011, 2011b. 
Download
Short summary
We examine sources of epistemic uncertainty in coastal flood risk models. We find that uncertainty from sea level estimations can be higher than that related to greenhouse gas emissions or climate prediction errors. Of comparable importance is information on coastal protection levels and the topography. In the absence of large datasets with sufficient resolution and accuracy, the last two factors are the main bottlenecks in terms of estimating coastal flood risks at large scales.
Share
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint