Articles | Volume 17, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1623-2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1623-2017
Research article
 | 
25 Sep 2017
Research article |  | 25 Sep 2017

Effects of sample size on estimation of rainfall extremes at high temperatures

Berry Boessenkool, Gerd Bürger, and Maik Heistermann

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Cited articles

Asquith, W. H.: Distributional analysis with L-moment statistics using the R environment for statistical computing, CreateSpace Independent Publishing Platform, http://scholar.google.com/scholar?cluster=4144393830145643403&hl=en&oi=scholarr (last access: 15 September 2017), 2011.
Asquith, W. H.: lmomco: L-moments, Censored L-moments, Trimmed L-moments, L-comoments, and Many Distributions, https://cran.r-project.org/package=lmomco (last access: 15 September 2017), 2016.
Berg, P. and Haerter, J. O.: Unexpected increase in precipitation intensity with temperature. A result of mixing of precipitation types?, Atmos. Res., 119, 56–61, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2011.05.012, 2013.
Berg, P., Haerter, J. O., Thejll, P., Piani, C., Hagemann, S., and Christensen, J. H.: Seasonal characteristics of the relationship between daily precipitation intensity and surface temperature, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 114, D18102, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD012008, 2009.
Berg, P., Moseley, C., and Haerter, J. O.: Strong increase in convective precipitation in response to higher temperatures, Nat. Geosci., 6, 181–185, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1731, 2013.
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Short summary
Rainfall is more intense at high temperatures than in cooler weather, as can be seen in summer thunder storms. The relationship between temperature and rainfall intensity seems to invert at very high temperatures, however. There are some possible meteorological explanations, but we propose that part of the reason might be the low number of observations, due to which the actually possible values are underestimated. We propose a better way to estimate high quantiles from small datasets.
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