Articles | Volume 17, issue 8
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1393–1409, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1393-2017

Special issue: Risk and uncertainty estimation in natural hazards

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1393–1409, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1393-2017
Research article
11 Aug 2017
Research article | 11 Aug 2017

Vulnerability of bridges to scour: insights from an international expert elicitation workshop

Rob Lamb et al.

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Cited articles

Arneson, L. A., Zevenbergen, L. W., Lagasse, P. F., and Clopper, P. E.: Evaluating Scour at Bridges, 5th Edn., Federal Highway Administration Hydraulic Engineering Circular No. 18, Publication No. FHWA-HIF-12-003, US Department of Transportation, Washington, D.C., 340 pp., 2012.
Aspinall, W. P. and Cooke, R. M.: Expert Elicitation and Judgement, in: Risk and Uncertainty Assessment in Natural Hazards, chap. 4, edited by: Rougier, J. C., Sparks, R. S. J., and Hill, L., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 64–99, 2013.
Aspinall, W. P., Cooke, R. M., Havelaar, A. H., Hoffmann, S., and Hald, T.: Evaluation of a Performance-Based Expert Elicitation: WHO Global Attribution of Foodborne Diseases, PLoS ONE, 11, e0149817, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0149817, 2016.
Bamber, J. and Aspinall, W. P.: An expert judgement assessment of future sea level rise from the ice sheets, Nat. Clim. Change, 3, 424–427, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1778, 2013.
Coleman, S. E., Lauchlan, C. S., and Melville, B. W.: Clear-water scour development at bridge abutments, J. Hydraul. Res., 41, 521–531, https://doi.org/10.1080/00221680309499997, 2003.
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Short summary
Scour (erosion) during floods can cause bridges to collapse. Modern design and maintenance mitigates the risk, so failures are rare. The residual risk is uncertain, but expert knowledge can help constrain it. We asked 19 experts about scour risk using methods designed to treat judgements alongside other scientific data. The findings identified knowledge gaps about scour processes and suggest wider uncertainty about scour risk than might be inferred from observation, models or experiments alone.
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