Articles | Volume 16, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2287-2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2287-2016
Research article
 | 
26 Oct 2016
Research article |  | 26 Oct 2016

Towards thresholds of disaster management performance under demographic change: exploring functional relationships using agent-based modeling

Gunnar Dressler, Birgit Müller, Karin Frank, and Christian Kuhlicke

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Cited articles

Albrecht, M., Gutsche, J.-M., Meier, M., and Müller, J.: Kurzexpertise: Auswirkungen des demografischen Wandels auf die Organisation der Gefahrenabwehr und Notfallrettung als Mindestleistung der öffentlichen Daseinsvorsorge, Bundesministerium des Inneren, Hamburg, Germany, 1–17, 2010.
Banitz, T., Frank, K., Wick, L., Harms, H., and Johst, K.: Spatial metrics as indicators of biodegradation benefits from bacterial dispersal networks, Ecol. Ind., 60, 54–63, 2016.
Barredo, J. I.: Major flood disasters in Europe: 1950–2005, Nat. Hazards, 42, 125–148, 2007.
Barredo, J. I.: Normalised flood losses in Europe: 1970–2006, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 97–104, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-9-97-2009, 2009.
BBSR: Wachsende und schrumpfende Städte und Gemeinden in Deutschland, Bundesinstitut für Bau, Stadt und Raumforschung, download file available at: http://www.bbsr.bund.de/BBSR/DE/Raumbeobachtung/Raumabgrenzungen/wachsend-schrumpfend-gemeinden/karte-wachsend-schrumpfend.pdf (last access: 25 October 2016), 2014.
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Short summary
Disaster management is a core feature to protect communities against floods. But what happens if a loss of resources or an increased flood frequency puts its performance at stake? We use a simulation model as a "virtual lab" to explore the impact of change processes on disaster management performance. Demographic change, causing a loss in manpower, has the most profound impact on the performance. Performance might be at risk in particular in rural, upstream regions with very short lead times.
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