Articles | Volume 16, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2287-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2287-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Towards thresholds of disaster management performance under demographic change: exploring functional relationships using agent-based modeling
Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ, Department of
Ecological Modelling, Leipzig, 04318, Germany
University of Osnabrück, Institute for Environmental Systems
Research, Osnabrück, Germany
Birgit Müller
Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ, Department of
Ecological Modelling, Leipzig, 04318, Germany
University of Osnabrück, Institute for Environmental Systems
Research, Osnabrück, Germany
Karin Frank
Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ, Department of
Ecological Modelling, Leipzig, 04318, Germany
University of Osnabrück, Institute for Environmental Systems
Research, Osnabrück, Germany
Christian Kuhlicke
Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ, Department of
Urban and Environmental Sociology, Leipzig, 04318, Germany
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Cited
11 citations as recorded by crossref.
- On the beer wagon: the past, present and future of Celtic craft brewing and its policies J. Wilson et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/21681376.2022.2158751
- How demographic developments determine the management of hydrometeorological hazard risks in rural communities: The linkages between demographic and natural hazards research C. Clar https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1378
- Modeling stakeholder interactions for post-disaster electric power restoration: A multi-agent and game-theoretic approach R. Shao & C. Fan https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2025.104307
- Population dynamics and natural hazard risk management: conceptual and practical linkages for the case of Austrian policy making C. Clar et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04376-z
- Introduction of integrated decision support system for flood disaster management H. Hsu & P. Gourbesville https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/1136/1/012019
- Estimation of the Evacuation Time According to Different Flood Depths P. Suwanno et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15076305
- Floodplains and Complex Adaptive Systems—Perspectives on Connecting the Dots in Flood Risk Assessment with Coupled Component Models A. Zischg https://doi.org/10.3390/systems6020009
- Agent-based modelling and flood risk management: A compendious literature review L. Zhuo & D. Han https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125600
- The impact of demographic developments on flood risk management systems in rural regions in the Alpine Arc C. Clar et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2023.103648
- Editorial to the special issue on resilience and vulnerability assessments in natural hazard and risk analysis S. Fuchs et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1203-2017
- An enhanced discovery of multiple natural disasters using machine learning model T. J T https://doi.org/10.1007/s12145-025-01793-1
11 citations as recorded by crossref.
- On the beer wagon: the past, present and future of Celtic craft brewing and its policies J. Wilson et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/21681376.2022.2158751
- How demographic developments determine the management of hydrometeorological hazard risks in rural communities: The linkages between demographic and natural hazards research C. Clar https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1378
- Modeling stakeholder interactions for post-disaster electric power restoration: A multi-agent and game-theoretic approach R. Shao & C. Fan https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2025.104307
- Population dynamics and natural hazard risk management: conceptual and practical linkages for the case of Austrian policy making C. Clar et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04376-z
- Introduction of integrated decision support system for flood disaster management H. Hsu & P. Gourbesville https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/1136/1/012019
- Estimation of the Evacuation Time According to Different Flood Depths P. Suwanno et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15076305
- Floodplains and Complex Adaptive Systems—Perspectives on Connecting the Dots in Flood Risk Assessment with Coupled Component Models A. Zischg https://doi.org/10.3390/systems6020009
- Agent-based modelling and flood risk management: A compendious literature review L. Zhuo & D. Han https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125600
- The impact of demographic developments on flood risk management systems in rural regions in the Alpine Arc C. Clar et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2023.103648
- Editorial to the special issue on resilience and vulnerability assessments in natural hazard and risk analysis S. Fuchs et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1203-2017
- An enhanced discovery of multiple natural disasters using machine learning model T. J T https://doi.org/10.1007/s12145-025-01793-1
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 03 Sep 2026
Short summary
Disaster management is a core feature to protect communities against floods. But what happens if a loss of resources or an increased flood frequency puts its performance at stake? We use a simulation model as a "virtual lab" to explore the impact of change processes on disaster management performance. Demographic change, causing a loss in manpower, has the most profound impact on the performance. Performance might be at risk in particular in rural, upstream regions with very short lead times.
Disaster management is a core feature to protect communities against floods. But what happens if...
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