In March 2015, a new international blueprint for disaster risk reduction (DRR) has been adopted in Sendai, Japan, at the end of the Third UN World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction (WCDRR, March 14–18, 2015). We review and discuss the agreed commitments and targets, as well as the negotiation leading the Sendai Framework for DRR (SFDRR), and discuss briefly its implication for the later UN-led negotiations on sustainable development goals and climate change.

We present a model parameter sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the Delft3D model for the simulation of storm hazards. The sensitive model parameters include wind drag, depth-induced breaking, and bottom roughness. Several parameters show no sensitivity and can therefore be excluded to reduce the computational overburden of probabilistic surge hazard estimates. A comparison of the model performance with forcings from three different wind models is also presented.

Avalanche hazard assessment requires a very precise estimation of the potential starting zone, which nowadays still depends, to a large extent, on expert judgement of avalanches. Therefore, a new algorithm for automated identification of potential avalanche release areas was developed. Potential avalanche release areas can be defined for varying snow accumulation scenarios, improving the automated estimation of release areas, in particular for frequent avalanches.

This paper presents the results of avalanche risk assessment methods research. The suggested method includes formulas to calculate collective and individual avalanche risk. The results of risk analysis are shown in quantitative data that can be used to determine levels of avalanche risk (appropriate, acceptable and inappropriate) and to suggest methods to decrease the individual risk to an acceptable level or better.

Devastating floods are a rare and unique phenomenon that prompts an in-depth hydrological analysis. The paper addresses the May 2014 flooding of the Bosna River. In May 2014, flooding occurred as a consequence of precipitation that continuously fell for several days over the Sava River and its lower reach tributaries in the territories of Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Serbia. The precipitation in some places exceeded a 5000-year return period and discharges a 100-year return period.

We measured particulate levels at distances ranging from 50 m to 20 km from two prescribed fires and compared the values to those predicted from an atmospheric dispersion model. The model performed well during the day but not for areas close to the fire (under 1 km), which experienced high pollution peaks and did not predict night-time pollution in one of the fires over an area of 120 000 ha caused by a temperature inversion.

We studied the impact of projected climate change on the risk of snow-induced forest damage in Finland. Although winters are projected to become milder over the whole of Finland, our results suggest than in eastern and northern Finland the risk may increase while in southern and western parts of the country it is projected to decrease. This indicates that there is increasing need to consider the potential of snow damage in forest management in eastern and northern Finland.

Human-induced changes in semi-arid regions could be responsible for modifications in ephemeral streams. Our results confirm that in-channel gravel mining and aquifer overexploitation over the last 50 years in the study area have changed the natural stability of the Nogalte stream and its geomorphic parameters. A comparison between flood events of the past and a recent one recorded in 2012 reveals changes and a new flooding pattern with a transition from an alluvial to a confined fluvial pattern.

Disaster management is a core feature to protect communities against floods. But what happens if a loss of resources or an increased flood frequency puts its performance at stake? We use a simulation model as a "virtual lab" to explore the impact of change processes on disaster management performance. Demographic change, causing a loss in manpower, has the most profound impact on the performance. Performance might be at risk in particular in rural, upstream regions with very short lead times.