Calibration and evaluation of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI)  System for improved wildland fire danger rating in the United Kingdom

de Jong, Mark C.; Wooster, Martin J.; Kitchen, Karl; Manley, Cathy; Gazzard, Rob; McCall, Frank F.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1217-2016

Articles | Volume 16, issue 5

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1217-2016

© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1217-2016

© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 16, issue 5

Research article

|

30 May 2016

Research article |

| 30 May 2016

Calibration and evaluation of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System for improved wildland fire danger rating in the United Kingdom

Mark C. de Jong, Martin J. Wooster, Karl Kitchen, Cathy Manley, Rob Gazzard, and Frank F. McCall

Data sets

Numerical weather prediction data Met Office http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Meteorological observation station data Met Office http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

National Forest Inventory data Forestry Commission England http://www.forestry.gov.uk/datadownload

Incident Recording System for Fire and Rescue Services DCLG (Department for Communities and Local Government) https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/incident-recording-system-for-fire-and-rescue-authorities

Incident Recording System (IRS) data for fire and rescue authorities DCLG (Department for Communities and Local Government) https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/incident-recording-system-for-fire-and-rescue-authorities

MasterMap® Topography Layer Ordnance Survey https://www.ordnancesurvey.co.uk/business-and-government/products/topography-layer.html

Land Cover Map 2007 (LCM2007) Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (CEH) http://www.ceh.ac.uk/services/land-cover-map-2007

Short summary

We present a percentile-based calibration of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System for the United Kingdom (UK), developed from numerical weather prediction data, and evaluate it using historic wildfire records. The Fine Fuel Moisture Code, Initial Spread Index and final FWI component of the FWI system show the greatest predictive skill for UK wildfires. Our findings provide useful insights for any future redevelopment of the current operational UK fire danger rating system.