Articles | Volume 16, issue 5
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1217–1237, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1217-2016
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1217–1237, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1217-2016

Research article 30 May 2016

Research article | 30 May 2016

Calibration and evaluation of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System for improved wildland fire danger rating in the United Kingdom

Mark C. de Jong et al.

Data sets

Numerical weather prediction data Met Office http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Meteorological observation station data Met Office http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

National Forest Inventory data Forestry Commission England http://www.forestry.gov.uk/datadownload

Incident Recording System for Fire and Rescue Services DCLG (Department for Communities and Local Government) https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/incident-recording-system-for-fire-and-rescue-authorities

Incident Recording System (IRS) data for fire and rescue authorities DCLG (Department for Communities and Local Government) https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/incident-recording-system-for-fire-and-rescue-authorities

MasterMap® Topography Layer Ordnance Survey https://www.ordnancesurvey.co.uk/business-and-government/products/topography-layer.html

Land Cover Map 2007 (LCM2007) Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (CEH) http://www.ceh.ac.uk/services/land-cover-map-2007

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Short summary
We present a percentile-based calibration of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System for the United Kingdom (UK), developed from numerical weather prediction data, and evaluate it using historic wildfire records. The Fine Fuel Moisture Code, Initial Spread Index and final FWI component of the FWI system show the greatest predictive skill for UK wildfires. Our findings provide useful insights for any future redevelopment of the current operational UK fire danger rating system.
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