Calibration and evaluation of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI)  System for improved wildland fire danger rating in the United Kingdom

de Jong, Mark C.; Wooster, Martin J.; Kitchen, Karl; Manley, Cathy; Gazzard, Rob; McCall, Frank F.

doi:10.5194/nhess-16-1217-2016

Articles | Volume 16, issue 5

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1217-2016

© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1217-2016

© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 16, issue 5

Research article

|

30 May 2016

Research article |

| 30 May 2016

Calibration and evaluation of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System for improved wildland fire danger rating in the United Kingdom

Mark C. de Jong, Martin J. Wooster, Karl Kitchen, Cathy Manley, Rob Gazzard, and Frank F. McCall

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Total article views: 6,568 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)

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PDF: 2,741
XML: 237
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BibTeX: 166
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Views and downloads (calculated since 23 Nov 2015)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
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Feb 2016	25	10	2	37
Mar 2016	9	4	0	13
Apr 2016	17	5	1	23
May 2016	27	16	0	43
Jun 2016	40	14	1	55
Jul 2016	25	11	2	38
Aug 2016	22	14	0	36
Sep 2016	27	17	0	44
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Jan 2017	12	17	1	30
Feb 2017	13	9	1	23
Mar 2017	49	34	7	90
Apr 2017	35	53	0	88
May 2017	37	16	4	57
Jun 2017	32	15	5	52
Jul 2017	20	14	1	35
Aug 2017	16	22	1	39
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Oct 2017	8	20	0	28
Nov 2017	12	23	4	39
Dec 2017	10	25	2	37
Jan 2018	16	30	3	49
Feb 2018	6	20	1	27
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Apr 2018	7	26	0	33
May 2018	12	19	0	31
Jun 2018	12	21	0	33
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Oct 2018	13	30	1	44
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Feb 2019	10	11	1	22
Mar 2019	11	48	0	59
Apr 2019	7	26	0	33
May 2019	10	16	1	27
Jun 2019	19	28	0	47
Jul 2019	36	27	0	63
Aug 2019	19	21	3	43
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Oct 2019	10	14	2	26
Nov 2019	10	22	1	33
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Jan 2020	10	17	3	30
Feb 2020	19	9	0	28
Mar 2020	7	12	0	19
Apr 2020	14	13	0	27
May 2020	27	22	1	50
Jun 2020	28	18	5	51
Jul 2020	37	32	17	86
Aug 2020	7	65	12	84
Sep 2020	16	31	0	47
Oct 2020	137	18	1	156
Nov 2020	26	26	0	52
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Feb 2021	30	11	3	44
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Apr 2021	35	14	0	49
May 2021	21	15	5	41
Jun 2021	23	15	0	38
Jul 2021	24	16	0	40
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Nov 2021	25	36	2	63
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Mar 2022	24	23	3	50
Apr 2022	30	24	5	59
May 2022	23	16	1	40
Jun 2022	15	16	2	33
Jul 2022	33	13	0	46
Aug 2022	32	35	3	70
Sep 2022	18	21	1	40
Oct 2022	18	11	1	30
Nov 2022	22	18	1	41
Dec 2022	33	15	4	52
Jan 2023	28	27	5	60
Feb 2023	16	22	2	40
Mar 2023	59	36	2	97
Apr 2023	27	38	1	66
May 2023	40	25	6	71
Jun 2023	117	28	0	145
Jul 2023	29	22	2	53
Aug 2023	41	28	2	71
Sep 2023	39	22	1	62
Oct 2023	72	26	4	102
Nov 2023	68	14	3	85
Dec 2023	37	15	3	55
Jan 2024	30	19	2	51
Feb 2024	30	18	3	51
Mar 2024	74	48	3	125
Apr 2024	74	31	3	108
May 2024	38	35	6	79
Jun 2024	73	21	3	97
Jul 2024	42	23	5	70
Aug 2024	48	54	5	107
Sep 2024	48	20	1	69
Oct 2024	42	17	1	60
Nov 2024	24	17	0	41
Dec 2024	34	18	3	55
Jan 2025	27	16	0	43
Feb 2025	46	27	1	74
Mar 2025	44	27	0	71
Apr 2025	37	25	0	62
May 2025	50	27	1	78
Jun 2025	68	24	0	92
Jul 2025	43	22	3	68
Aug 2025	47	21	2	70
Sep 2025	58	27	4	89
Oct 2025	51	37	3	91
Nov 2025	62	34	2	98
Dec 2025	6	6	0	12

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 23 Nov 2015)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Nov 2015	22	14	1	37
Dec 2015	20	22	2	44
Jan 2016	31	13	0	44
Feb 2016	25	10	2	37
Mar 2016	9	4	0	13
Apr 2016	17	5	1	23
May 2016	27	16	0	43
Jun 2016	40	14	1	55
Jul 2016	25	11	2	38
Aug 2016	22	14	0	36
Sep 2016	27	17	0	44
Oct 2016	26	21	1	48
Nov 2016	12	12	1	25
Dec 2016	20	8	0	28
Jan 2017	12	17	1	30
Feb 2017	13	9	1	23
Mar 2017	49	34	7	90
Apr 2017	35	53	0	88
May 2017	37	16	4	57
Jun 2017	32	15	5	52
Jul 2017	20	14	1	35
Aug 2017	16	22	1	39
Sep 2017	14	18	0	32
Oct 2017	8	20	0	28
Nov 2017	12	23	4	39
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Feb 2018	6	20	1	27
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May 2018	12	19	0	31
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Jan 2021	32	19	0	51
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Feb 2022	30	34	6	70
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Jan 2023	28	27	5	60
Feb 2023	16	22	2	40
Mar 2023	59	36	2	97
Apr 2023	27	38	1	66
May 2023	40	25	6	71
Jun 2023	117	28	0	145
Jul 2023	29	22	2	53
Aug 2023	41	28	2	71
Sep 2023	39	22	1	62
Oct 2023	72	26	4	102
Nov 2023	68	14	3	85
Dec 2023	37	15	3	55
Jan 2024	30	19	2	51
Feb 2024	30	18	3	51
Mar 2024	74	48	3	125
Apr 2024	74	31	3	108
May 2024	38	35	6	79
Jun 2024	73	21	3	97
Jul 2024	42	23	5	70
Aug 2024	48	54	5	107
Sep 2024	48	20	1	69
Oct 2024	42	17	1	60
Nov 2024	24	17	0	41
Dec 2024	34	18	3	55
Jan 2025	27	16	0	43
Feb 2025	46	27	1	74
Mar 2025	44	27	0	71
Apr 2025	37	25	0	62
May 2025	50	27	1	78
Jun 2025	68	24	0	92
Jul 2025	43	22	3	68
Aug 2025	47	21	2	70
Sep 2025	58	27	4	89
Oct 2025	51	37	3	91
Nov 2025	62	34	2	98
Dec 2025	6	6	0	12

Latest update: 06 Dec 2025

Short summary

We present a percentile-based calibration of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System for the United Kingdom (UK), developed from numerical weather prediction data, and evaluate it using historic wildfire records. The Fine Fuel Moisture Code, Initial Spread Index and final FWI component of the FWI system show the greatest predictive skill for UK wildfires. Our findings provide useful insights for any future redevelopment of the current operational UK fire danger rating system.