Articles | Volume 16, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1079-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1079-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
10 May 2016
Research article |
| 10 May 2016
Regional impacts of global change: seasonal trends in extreme rainfall, run-off and temperature in two contrasting regions of Morocco
Kenza Khomsi
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Direction de la Météorologie Nationale, Casablanca, Morocco
Gil Mahe
IRD – Hydrosciences Montpellier, Montpellier, France
Yves Tramblay
IRD – Hydrosciences Montpellier, Montpellier, France
Mohamed Sinan
Ecole Hassania des Travaux Publics, Casablanca, Morocco
Maria Snoussi
Université Mohammed V, Faculté des Sciences, Rabat, Morocco
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Abderraouf Hzami, Oula Amrouni, Essam Heggy, Gil Mahé, and Hechmi Missaoui
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Natural and anthropogenic causes of coastal environmental change are significantly linked to the sediment dynamics of the coastal lagoon on the North African coast, through both the variability of continental input and the coastal marine geomorphology. Temporal analysis of the aerial and orbital photogrammetry suggests that ~ 70 % of the Ghar El Melh coast.
Marc Auriol Amalaman, Gil Mahé, Béh Ibrahim Diomande, Armand Zamblé Tra Bi, Nathalie Rouché, Zeineddine Nouaceur, and Benoit Laignel
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L’objectif de ce travail est d’analyser les liens entre les indices climatiques et la variabilité des séries de précipitations et de débits. La méthode a consisté à rechercher les changements survenus dans ces données à travers la variabilité du signal. Ainsi, au niveau de l’analyse interannuelle et saisonnière, le signal indique une forte oscillation marquée par une prédominance de la couleur rouge. L’utilisation de l’indice ENSO montre que le phénomène El-Niño impacte le débit et la pluie.
Domiho Japhet Kodja, Gandomè Mayeul Leger Davy Quenum, Houteta Djan'na Koubodana, Ernest Amoussou, Isaiah Sewanu Akoteyon, Arsène Sègla Josué Akognongbé, Mahougnon Fidèle Ahéhéhinnou Yêdo, Gil Mahé, Jean-Emmanuel Paturel, Expédit Wilfrid Vissin, and Constant Houndénou
Proc. IAHS, 385, 359–364, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-385-359-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-385-359-2024, 2024
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The results showed that there is an variability in the spatial distribution of extreme indices with an upward and downward trend of dry and wet rainfall periods in West Africa in both historical and projected periods. Thus, the results revealed that the spatio- temporal variability of extreme rainfall can have repercussions on the hydrological functioning of watersheds, water availability and water-dependent activities.
Golab Moussa Omar, Jean-Emmanuel Paturel, Christian Salles, Gil Mahé, Mohamed Jalludin, Frédéric Satgé, Mohamed Ismail Nour, and Abdillahi Hassan Hersi
Proc. IAHS, 385, 59–64, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-385-59-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-385-59-2024, 2024
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The Republic of Djibouti is a small country in the Horn of Africa and as with most regions of Africa, rain gauges are sparse. This study aims to compare at different time steps (annual, monthly, and daily) 15 rainfall estimation products (P-datasets) to 5 reference ground-based rainfall stations, over the period of 1980–1990. To classify the reliability of these products, several metrics were considered, the Kling Gupta Efficiency (KGE) and the Heidle Skills Scores (HSS at daily time step).
Ernest Amoussou, Félix Toundé Amoussou, Aymar Yaovi Bossa, Domiho Japhet Kodja, Henri Sourou Totin Vodounon, Constant Houndénou, Valérie Borrell Estupina, Jean-Emmanuel Paturel, Gil Mahé, Christophe Cudennec, and Michel Boko
Proc. IAHS, 385, 141–146, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-385-141-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-385-141-2024, 2024
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The objective is to assess the causes of exceptional floods in the Ouémé basin using the HEC-RAS model. The results of the calculation made it possible to characterize: the losses and damage due to human settlement on the banks and agricultural production in the flood zone, the flooded extent and the height of submersion depend on the return period, most of the Flood waters converge towards the west of the basin (low risk) and towards the east around the Damè-Wogon depression (high risk).
Rajae El Aoula, Gil Mahé, Nadia Mhammdi, Abdellatif Ezzahouani, Ilias Kacimi, and Kenza Khomsi
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Oula Amrouni and Gil Mahé
Proc. IAHS, 384, 133–139, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-384-133-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-384-133-2021, 2021
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Our multidisciplinary study reveals an alarming trend of beach retreat reaching −20 m ± 0.15 m yr−1 after the human-induced change over the hydrological network where ~ 50 % of sediment discharge has been trapped upstream the dams. Accros the semi arid north African coasts, the rapid shoreline retreat is due to the decreasing of sediment fluvial discharge trapped by the dam infrastrcture.
Gil Mahé, Gamal Abdo, Ernest Amoussou, Telesphore Brou, Stephan Dietrich, Ahmed El Tayeb, Henny van Lanen, Mohamed Meddi, Anil Mishra, Didier Orange, Thi Phuong Quynh Le, Raphael Tshimanga, Patrick Valimba, Santiago Yepez, Andrew Ogilvie, and Oula Amrouni
Proc. IAHS, 384, 5–18, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-384-5-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-384-5-2021, 2021
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The FRIEND-Water program (FWP) is the oldest and the most transverse program within the UNESCO IHP. It allows large communities of hydrologists to collaborate across borders on common shared data and scientific topics, addressed through 8 large world regions. Research priorities evolve according to the projections given by the member States during the IHP councils. FWP further activities follow the IHP IX program with the support of the Montpellier UNESCO Category II Center ICIREWAD.
Valentin Brice Ebodé, Gil Mahé, and Ernest Amoussou
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The objective of this article is to assess recent trends of hydroclimatic quantities in Ogooue basin in the context of climate change. For this, the rainfall and discharges data of this basin were analyzed using the Pettitt test. The results of this study reveal a statistically significant decrease in runoff that the Pettitt test situates in 1972–73, but nothing like that for rainfall at this same time scale.
Valentin Brice Ebodé, Gil Mahé, and Ernest Amoussou
Proc. IAHS, 384, 261–267, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-384-261-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-384-261-2021, 2021
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La sécheresse observée en Afrique tropicale vers la fin des années 1960, a également affecté le bassin de la Bénoué en Afrique centrale, avec une persistance remarquable qui s’est répercutée sur les écoulements. Les ruptures à la baisse ont été mises en évidence dans les séries hydropluviométriques de ce bassin au pas de temps annuel en 1970–71 (pluies) et 1971–72 (débits). Les déficits associés à cette rupture sont de −2,9 % pour les pluies et −14,2 % pour les débits.
Sakaros Bogning, Frédéric Frappart, Gil Mahé, Adrien Paris, Raphael Onguene, Fabien Blarel, Fernando Niño, Jacques Etame, and Jean-Jacques Braun
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This paper investigates links between rainfall variability in the Ogooué River Basin (ORB) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific Ocean. Recent hydroclimatology studies of the ORB and surrounding areas resulting in contrasting conclusions about links between rainfall variability and ENSO. Then, this work uses cross-wavelet and wavelet coherence analysis to highlight significant links between ENSO and rainfall in the ORB.
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Yves Tramblay, Nathalie Rouché, Jean-Emmanuel Paturel, Gil Mahé, Jean-François Boyer, Ernest Amoussou, Ansoumana Bodian, Honoré Dacosta, Hamouda Dakhlaoui, Alain Dezetter, Denis Hughes, Lahoucine Hanich, Christophe Peugeot, Raphael Tshimanga, and Patrick Lachassagne
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This dataset provides a set of hydrometric indices for about 1500 stations across Africa with daily discharge data. These indices represent mean flow characteristics and extremes (low flows and floods), allowing us to study the long-term evolution of hydrology in Africa and support the modeling efforts that aim at reducing the vulnerability of African countries to hydro-climatic variability.
Fatima Hara, Mohammed Achab, Anas Emran, and Gil Mahe
Proc. IAHS, 383, 159–162, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-383-159-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-383-159-2020, 2020
Ali Hadour, Gil Mahé, and Mohamed Meddi
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The downward of rainfall trend occurred in the study area in 1972, affecting a few coastal stations. In 1976, this decline extended to the South West and throughout the coastal region. In 1980, the drop covered the entire basin. This decline has resulted in an estimated deficit of 30 % on average in the eastern region, the coastal region and the Mina. However, the central part of the basin experienced a 20 % decrease compared to the period before the break (1968–1980).
Domiho Japhet Kodja, Arsène J. Sègla Akognongbé, Ernest Amoussou, Gil Mahé, E. Wilfrid Vissin, Jean-Emmanuel Paturel, and Constant Houndénou
Proc. IAHS, 383, 163–169, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-383-163-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-383-163-2020, 2020
Zhongbo Yu, Chunhui Lu, Jianyuan Cai, Dazheng Yu, Gil Mahe, Anil Mishra, Christophe Cudennec, Henny A. J. Van Lanen, Didier Orange, and Abou Amani
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The 8th Global FRIEND conference highlighted the advance in hydrological science and innovation in water management. 52 accepted papers cover study areas in precipitation and climate impact; observation, analysis and simulations of hydrologic processes; floods in the changing environments; drought monitoring and analysis; water resources and environmental impacts. The outcome of the conference presented in the proceedings will be shared and discussed widely among UNESCO IHP networks.
Thouraya Benmoussa, Oula Amrouni, Laurent Dezileau, Gil Mahé, and Saâdi Abdeljaouad
Proc. IAHS, 377, 77–81, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-377-77-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-377-77-2018, 2018
Ernest Amoussou, Henri S. Totin Vodounon, Expédit W. Vissin, Gil Mahé, and Marc Lucien Oyédé
Proc. IAHS, 377, 91–96, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-377-91-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-377-91-2018, 2018
Fatma Kotti, Laurent Dezileau, Gil Mahé, Hamadi Habaieb, Malik Bentkaya, Claudine Dieulin, and Oula Amrouni
Proc. IAHS, 377, 67–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-377-67-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-377-67-2018, 2018
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This study was designed to prove that the coastal changes of the Gulf of Tunis are mainly driven by the changes of the hydrological regime of the Medjerda river due to dams. We sampled cores of sediments in the low valley just before the sea, and analyzed them. They show the dramatic reduction of sediment supply after 1981, date of construction of the largest dam of Sidi Salem, and the disappearance of sand in the fluvial sediments.
Gil Mahe, Kate Heal, Akhilendra B. Gupta, and Hafzullah Aksoy
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D. Ruelland, P. Hublart, and Y. Tramblay
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This study explores various hydrological projections while accounting for propagation uncertainties that arise from the methods used to generate climate projections and to simulate streamflow responses from four basins in the Mediterranean. Hydrological projections based on temperature ensemble scenarios generally agree on a runoff decrease during all seasons while projections mixing temperature and precipitation ensemble scenarios only agreed on a trend to runoff decrease during spring.
S. Taibi, M. Meddi, and G. Mahé
Proc. IAHS, 369, 175–180, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-369-175-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-369-175-2015, 2015
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Cette étude vise à analyser les tendances des pluies extrêmes dans un bassin semi-aride du Nord de l’Algérie et leur relation avec les types de circulation atmosphérique. Les pluies totales et l’intensité journalière ont connu une baisse significative durant la période 1971-2010 montre des tandis que leur fréquence ne montre pas de changement significatif.
L’oscillation méditerranéenne est le type de circulation qui influence la variabilité des pluies extrêmes du bassin du Chéliff
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This paper assesses the impact of drought (meteorological drought) on the hydrological alterations in major rivers of the Indus Basin. Threshold regression and range of variability analysis are used to determine the drought severity and times where drought has caused low flows and extreme low flows (identified using indicators of hydrological alterations). Moreover, this study also examines the degree of alterations in river flows due to drought using the hydrological alteration factor.
Alexander Frank Vessey, Kevin I. Hodges, Len C. Shaffrey, and Jonathan J. Day
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2115–2132, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2115-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2115-2024, 2024
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The risk posed to ships by Arctic cyclones has seldom been quantified due to the lack of publicly available historical Arctic ship track data. This study investigates historical Arctic ship tracks, cyclone tracks, and shipping incident reports to determine the number of shipping incidents caused by the passage of Arctic cyclones. Results suggest that Arctic cyclones have not been hazardous to ships and that ships are resilient to the rough sea conditions caused by Arctic cyclones.
Niklas Ebers, Kai Schröter, and Hannes Müller-Thomy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2025–2043, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2025-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2025-2024, 2024
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Future changes in sub-daily rainfall extreme values are essential in various hydrological fields, but climate scenarios typically offer only daily resolution. One solution is rainfall generation. With a temperature-dependent rainfall generator climate scenario data were disaggregated to 5 min rainfall time series for 45 locations across Germany. The analysis of the future 5 min rainfall time series showed an increase in the rainfall extremes values for rainfall durations of 5 min and 1 h.
Ran Zhu and Lei Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1937–1950, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1937-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1937-2024, 2024
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There is a positive correlation between the frequency of Jianghuai cyclone activity and precipitation during the Meiyu period. Its occurrence frequency has an obvious decadal variation, which corresponds well with the quasi-periodic and decadal variation in precipitation during the Meiyu period. This study provides a reference for the long-term and short-term forecasting of precipitation during the Meiyu period.
Andi Xhelaj and Massimiliano Burlando
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1657–1679, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1657-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1657-2024, 2024
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The study provides an in-depth analysis of a severe downburst event in Sânnicolau Mare, Romania, utilizing an analytical model and optimization algorithm. The goal is to explore a multitude of generating solutions and to identify potential alternatives to the optimal solution. Advanced data analysis techniques help to discern three main distinct storm scenarios. For this particular event, the best overall solution from the optimization algorithm shows promise in reconstructing the downburst.
Luca G. Severino, Chahan M. Kropf, Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Christopher Fairless, Andries Jan de Vries, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1555–1578, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1555-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1555-2024, 2024
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We combine climate projections from 30 climate models with a climate risk model to project winter windstorm damages in Europe under climate change. We study the uncertainty and sensitivity factors related to the modelling of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. We emphasize high uncertainties in the damage projections, with climate models primarily driving the uncertainty. We find climate change reshapes future European windstorm risk by altering damage locations and intensity.
Daniel Krieger, Sebastian Brune, Johanna Baehr, and Ralf Weisse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1539–1554, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1539-2024, 2024
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Previous studies found that climate models can predict storm activity in the German Bight well for averages of 5–10 years but struggle in predicting the next winter season. Here, we improve winter storm activity predictions by linking them to physical phenomena that occur before the winter. We guess the winter storm activity from these phenomena and discard model solutions that stray too far from the guess. The remaining solutions then show much higher prediction skill for storm activity.
João P. A. Martins, Sara Caetano, Carlos Pereira, Emanuel Dutra, and Rita M. Cardoso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1501–1520, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1501-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1501-2024, 2024
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Over Europe, 2022 was truly exceptional in terms of extreme heat conditions, both in terms of temperature anomalies and their temporal and spatial extent. The satellite all-sky land surface temperature (LST) is used to provide a climatological context to extreme heat events. Where drought conditions prevail, LST anomalies are higher than 2 m air temperature anomalies. ERA5-Land does not represent this effect correctly due to a misrepresentation of vegetation anomalies.
Rudolf Brázdil, Kateřina Chromá, and Pavel Zahradníček
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1437–1457, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1437-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1437-2024, 2024
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The official mortality data in the Czech Republic in 1919–2022 are used to show long-term fluctuations in the number of fatalities caused by excessive natural cold and heat, lightning, natural disasters, and falls on ice/snow, as well as the sex and age of the deceased, based on certain meteorological, historical, and socioeconomic factors that strongly influence changes in the number and structure of such fatalities. Knowledge obtained is usable in risk management for the preservation of lives.
Ben Maybee, Cathryn E. Birch, Steven J. Böing, Thomas Willis, Linda Speight, Aurore N. Porson, Charlie Pilling, Kay L. Shelton, and Mark A. Trigg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1415–1436, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1415-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1415-2024, 2024
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This paper presents the development and verification of FOREWARNS, a novel method for regional-scale forecasting of surface water flooding. We detail outcomes from a workshop held with UK forecast users, who indicated they valued the forecasts and would use them to complement national guidance. We use results of objective forecast tests against flood observations over northern England to show that this confidence is justified and that FOREWARNS meets the needs of UK flood responders.
Ashbin Jaison, Asgeir Sorteberg, Clio Michel, and Øyvind Breivik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1341–1355, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1341-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1341-2024, 2024
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The present study uses daily insurance losses and wind speeds to fit storm damage functions at the municipality level of Norway. The results show that the damage functions accurately estimate losses associated with extreme damaging events and can reconstruct their spatial patterns. However, there is no single damage function that performs better than another. A newly devised damage–no-damage classifier shows some skill in predicting extreme damaging events.
Madlen Peter, Henning W. Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1261–1285, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1261-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1261-2024, 2024
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The paper introduces a statistical modeling approach describing daily extreme precipitation in Germany more accurately by including changes within the year and between the years simultaneously. The changing seasonality over years is regionally divergent and mainly weak. However, some regions stand out with a more pronounced linear rise of summer intensities, indicating a possible climate change signal. Improved modeling of extreme precipitation is beneficial for risk assessment and adaptation.
Andrew Brown, Andrew Dowdy, and Todd P. Lane
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-322, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-322, 2024
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A computer model that simulates the climate of south-eastern Australia is shown here to represent extreme wind events associated with convective storms. This is useful as it allows us to investigate possible future changes in the occurrences of these events, and we find in the year 2050 that our model simulates a decrease in the number of occurrences. However, the model also simulates too many events in the historical climate compared with observations, so these future changes are uncertain.
Faye Hulton and David M. Schultz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1079–1098, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1079-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1079-2024, 2024
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Large hail devastates crops and property and can injure and kill people and livestock. Hail reports are collected by individual countries, so understanding where and when large hail occurs across Europe is an incomplete undertaking. We use the European Severe Weather Database to evaluate the quality of reports by year and by country since 2000. Despite its short record, the dataset appears to represent aspects of European large-hail climatology reliably.
Patrick Olschewski, Mame Diarra Bousso Dieng, Hassane Moutahir, Brian Böker, Edwin Haas, Harald Kunstmann, and Patrick Laux
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1099–1134, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1099-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1099-2024, 2024
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We applied a multivariate and dependency-preserving bias correction method to climate model output for the Greater Mediterranean Region and investigated potential changes in false-spring events (FSEs) and heat–drought compound events (HDCEs). Results project an increase in the frequency of FSEs in middle and late spring as well as increases in frequency, intensity, and duration for HDCEs. This will potentially aggravate the risk of crop loss and failure and negatively impact food security.
Xiaowei Zhao, Tianzeng Yang, Hongbo Zhang, Tian Lan, Chaowei Xue, Tongfang Li, Zhaoxia Ye, Zhifang Yang, and Yurou Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-45, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-45, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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To effectively track and identify droughts, we developed a novel integrated drought index that combines the effects of precipitation, temperature, and soil moisture on drought. After comparison and verification, the integrated drought index shows superior performance to a single meteorological drought index or agricultural drought index in drought identification.
Alan Demortier, Marc Mandement, Vivien Pourret, and Olivier Caumont
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 907–927, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-907-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-907-2024, 2024
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Improvements in numerical weather prediction models make it possible to warn of hazardous weather situations. The incorporation of new observations from personal weather stations into the French limited-area model is evaluated. It leads to a significant improvement in the modelling of the surface pressure field up to 9 h ahead. Their incorporation improves the location and intensity of the heavy precipitation event that occurred in the South of France in September 2021.
Timo Schmid, Raphael Portmann, Leonie Villiger, Katharina Schröer, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 847–872, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-847-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-847-2024, 2024
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Hailstorms cause severe damage to buildings and cars, which motivates a detailed risk assessment. Here, we present a new open-source hail damage model based on radar data in Switzerland. The model successfully estimates the correct order of magnitude of car and building damages for most large hail events over 20 years. However, large uncertainty remains in the geographical distribution of modelled damages, which can be improved for individual events by using crowdsourced hail reports.
Colin Raymond, Anamika Shreevastava, Emily Slinskey, and Duane Waliser
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 791–801, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-791-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-791-2024, 2024
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How can we systematically understand what causes high levels of atmospheric humidity and thus heat stress? Here we argue that atmospheric rivers can be a useful tool, based on our finding that in several US regions, atmospheric rivers and humid heat occur close together in space and time. Most typically, an atmospheric river transports moisture which heightens heat stress, with precipitation following a day later. These effects tend to be larger for stronger and more extensive systems.
Julia Moemken, Inovasita Alifdini, Alexandre M. Ramos, Alexandros Georgiadis, Aidan Brocklehurst, Lukas Braun, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-16, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-16, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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European windstorms regularly cause damage to natural and human-made environments, leading to high socio-economic losses. For the first time, we compare estimates of these losses using a meteorological Loss Index (LI) and the insurance loss (catastrophe) model of Aon Impact Forecasting. We find that LI underestimates high impact windstorms compared to the insurance model. Nonetheless, due to its simplicity, LI is an effective index, suitable for estimating impacts and ranking storm events.
Lena Wilhelm, Cornelia Schwierz, Katharina Schröer, Mateusz Taszarek, and Olivia Martius
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-371, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-371, 2024
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In our study we used statistical models to reconstruct past haildays in Switzerland from 1959–2022. This new timeseries reveals a significant increase in hail occurrences over the last seven decades. We link this trend to climate factors, showcasing the impact of increasing moisture and instability in the atmosphere. The last two decades have seen a surge in early hailseason events. This time series can now be used to study what drives the strong year-to-year variability of Swiss hailstorms.
Joseph Smith, Cathryn Birch, John Marsham, Simon Peatman, Massimo Bollasina, and George Pankiewicz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 567–582, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-567-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-567-2024, 2024
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Nowcasting uses observations to make predictions of the atmosphere on short timescales and is particularly applicable to the Maritime Continent, where storms rapidly develop and cause natural disasters. This paper evaluates probabilistic and deterministic satellite nowcasting algorithms over the Maritime Continent. We show that the probabilistic approach is most skilful at small scales (~ 60 km), whereas the deterministic approach is most skilful at larger scales (~ 200 km).
Julia Miller, Andrea Böhnisch, Ralf Ludwig, and Manuela I. Brunner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 411–428, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-411-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-411-2024, 2024
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We assess the impacts of climate change on fire danger for 1980–2099 in different landscapes of central Europe, using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) as a fire danger indicator. We find that today's 100-year FWI event will occur every 30 years by 2050 and every 10 years by 2099. High fire danger (FWI > 21.3) becomes the mean condition by 2099 under an RCP8.5 scenario. This study highlights the potential for severe fire events in central Europe from a meteorological perspective.
Clemens Schwingshackl, Anne Sophie Daloz, Carley Iles, Kristin Aunan, and Jana Sillmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 331–354, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-331-2024, 2024
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Ambient heat in European cities will substantially increase under global warming, as projected by three heat metrics calculated from high-resolution climate model simulations. While the heat metrics consistently project high levels of ambient heat for several cities, in other cities the projected heat levels vary considerably across the three heat metrics. Using complementary heat metrics for projections of ambient heat is thus important for assessments of future risks from heat stress.
Dragan Petrovic, Benjamin Fersch, and Harald Kunstmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 265–289, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-265-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-265-2024, 2024
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The influence of model resolution and settings on the reproduction of heat waves in Germany between 1980–2009 is analyzed. Outputs from a high-resolution model with settings tailored to the target region are compared to those from coarser-resolution models with more general settings. Neither the increased resolution nor the tailored model settings are found to add significant value to the heat wave simulation. The models exhibit a large spread, indicating that the choice of model can be crucial.
Josep Bonsoms, Juan I. López-Moreno, Esteban Alonso-González, César Deschamps-Berger, and Marc Oliva
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 245–264, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-245-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-245-2024, 2024
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Climate warming is changing mountain snowpack patterns, leading in some cases to rain-on-snow (ROS) events. Here we analyzed near-present ROS and its sensitivity to climate warming across the Pyrenees. ROS increases during the coldest months of the year but decreases in the warmest months and areas under severe warming due to snow cover depletion. Faster snow ablation is anticipated in the coldest and northern slopes of the range. Relevant implications in mountain ecosystem are anticipated.
Tiberiu-Eugen Antofie, Stefano Luoni, Alois Tilloy, Andrea Sibilia, Sandro Salari, Gustav Eklund, Davide Rodomonti, Christos Bountzouklis, and Christina Corbane
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-220, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-220, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
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This is the first study that uses spatial patterns (clusters/hot-spots) and meta-analysis in order to identify the regions at European level at risk to multi-hazards. The findings point out the socio-economic dimension as determinant factor for the risk potential to multi-hazard. The outcome provides valuable input for the Disaster Risk Management policy support and will assist national authorities on the implementation of a multi-hazard approach in the National Risk Assessments preparation.
Baruch Ziv, Uri Dayan, Lidiya Shendrik, and Elyakom Vadislavsky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-215, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-215, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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'Train effect' is related to convective cells that pass over the same place. Trains produce heavy rainfall, sometimes floods, and reported in N. America during spring and summer. In Israel, 17 trains were identified by radar images, associated with Cyprus Lows, sharing the following features: Found at the cold sector south of the low center, at the left flank of a maximum wind belt; they cross the Israeli coast, with a mean length of 45 km, last 1–3 hours and yield 35 mm rainfall, up to 60 mm.
Matthew D. K. Priestley, David B. Stephenson, Adam A. Scaife, Daniel Bannister, Christopher J. T. Allen, and David Wilkie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3845–3861, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3845-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3845-2023, 2023
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This research presents a model for estimating extreme gusts associated with European windstorms. Using observed storm footprints we are able to calculate the return level of events at the 200-year return period. The largest gusts are found across NW Europe, and these are larger when the North Atlantic Oscillation is positive. Using theoretical future climate states we find that return levels are likely to increase across NW Europe to levels that are unprecedented compared to historical storms.
Tadeusz Chmielewski and Piotr A. Bońkowski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3839–3844, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3839-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3839-2023, 2023
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The paper deals with wind speeds of extreme wind events in Poland and the descriptions of their effects. Two recent estimations developed by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management in Warsaw and by Halina Lorenc are presented and briefly described. The 37 annual maximum gusts of wind speeds measured between 1971 and 2007 are analysed. Based on the measured and estimated wind speeds, the authors suggest new estimations for extreme winds that may occur in Poland.
Jingyu Wang, Jiwen Fan, and Zhe Feng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3823–3838, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3823-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3823-2023, 2023
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Hail and tornadoes are devastating hazards responsible for significant property damage and economic losses in the United States. Quantifying the connection between hazard events and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) is of great significance for improving predictability, as well as for better understanding the influence of the climate-scale perturbations. A 14-year statistical dataset of MCS-related hazard production is presented.
Ruijiao Jiang, Guoping Zhang, Shudong Wang, Bing Xue, Zhengshuai Xie, Tingzhao Yu, Kuoyin Wang, Jin Ding, and Xiaoxiang Zhu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3747–3759, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3747-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3747-2023, 2023
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Lightning activity in China is analyzed. Low latitudes, undulating terrain, seaside, and humid surfaces are beneficial for lightning occurrence. Summer of the year or afternoon of the day is the high period. Large cloud-to-ground lightning frequency always corresponds to a small ratio and weak intensity of positive cloud-to-ground lightning on either a temporal or spatial scale. Interestingly, the discharge intensity difference between the two types of lightning shrinks on the Tibetan Plateau.
George Pacey, Stephan Pfahl, Lisa Schielicke, and Kathrin Wapler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3703–3721, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3703-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3703-2023, 2023
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Cold fronts are often associated with areas of intense precipitation (cells) and sometimes with hazards such as flooding, hail and lightning. We find that cold-frontal cell days are associated with higher cell frequency and cells are typically more intense. We also show both spatially and temporally where cells are most frequent depending on their cell-front distance. These results are an important step towards a deeper understanding of cold-frontal storm climatology and improved forecasting.
Francesco Battaglioli, Pieter Groenemeijer, Ivan Tsonevsky, and Tomàš Púčik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3651–3669, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3651-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3651-2023, 2023
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Probabilistic models for lightning and large hail were developed across Europe using lightning observations and hail reports. These models accurately predict the occurrence of lightning and large hail several days in advance. In addition, the hail model was shown to perform significantly better than the state-of-the-art forecasting methods. These results suggest that the models developed in this study may help improve forecasting of convective hazards and eventually limit the associated risks.
Rosa Claudia Torcasio, Alessandra Mascitelli, Eugenio Realini, Stefano Barindelli, Giulio Tagliaferro, Silvia Puca, Stefano Dietrich, and Stefano Federico
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3319–3336, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3319-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3319-2023, 2023
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This work shows how local observations can improve precipitation forecasting for severe weather events. The improvement lasts for at least 6 h of forecast.
Gerd Bürger and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3065–3077, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3065-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3065-2023, 2023
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Our subject is a new catalogue of radar-based heavy rainfall events (CatRaRE) over Germany and how it relates to the concurrent atmospheric circulation. We classify reanalyzed daily atmospheric fields of convective indices according to CatRaRE, using conventional statistical and more recent machine learning algorithms, and apply them to present and future atmospheres. Increasing trends are projected for CatRaRE-type probabilities, from reanalyzed as well as from simulated atmospheric fields.
Marleen R. Lam, Alessia Matanó, Anne F. Van Loon, Rhoda A. Odongo, Aklilu D. Teklesadik, Charles N. Wamucii, Marc J. C. van den Homberg, Shamton Waruru, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2915–2936, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2915-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2915-2023, 2023
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There is still no full understanding of the relation between drought impacts and drought indices in the Horn of Africa where water scarcity and arid regions are also present. This study assesses their relation in Kenya. A random forest model reveals that each region, aggregated by aridity, has its own set of predictors for every impact category. Water scarcity was not found to be related to aridity. Understanding these relations contributes to the development of drought early warning systems.
Marie Hundhausen, Hendrik Feldmann, Natalie Laube, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2873–2893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2873-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2873-2023, 2023
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Using a convection-permitting regional climate ensemble, the magnitude of heat waves (HWs) over Germany is projected to increase by 26 % (100 %) in a 2 °C (3 °C) warmer world. The increase is strongest in late summer, relatively homogeneous in space, and accompanied by increasing variance in HW length. Tailored parameters to climate adaptation to heat revealed dependency on major landscapes, and a nonlinear, exponential increase for parameters characterizing strong heat stress is expected.
Pauline Rivoire, Olivia Martius, Philippe Naveau, and Alexandre Tuel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2857–2871, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2857-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2857-2023, 2023
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Heavy precipitation can lead to floods and landslides, resulting in widespread damage and significant casualties. Some of its impacts can be mitigated if reliable forecasts and warnings are available. In this article, we assess the capacity of the precipitation forecast provided by ECMWF to predict heavy precipitation events on a subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescale over Europe. We find that the forecast skill of such events is generally higher in winter than in summer.
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Short summary
The study investigates trends in mean and extreme rainfall, run-off, temperature and their relationship with large-scale atmospheric circulation. It focuses on two Moroccan watersheds; Bouregreg and Tensift, using data from 1977 to 2003. Results do not show a homogeneous behaviour in the catchments; the influence of the large-scale atmospheric circulation is different and a clear spatial dependence of the trend analysis is linked to the distance from the coast and the mountains.
The study investigates trends in mean and extreme rainfall, run-off, temperature and their...
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