Articles | Volume 14, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2933-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2933-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
07 Nov 2014
Research article |
| 07 Nov 2014
Simulating lightning into the RAMS model: implementation and preliminary results
S. Federico
ISAC-CNR, UOS of Rome, via del Fosso del Cavaliere 100, 00133 Rome, Italy
E. Avolio
ISAC-CNR, UOS of Rome, via del Fosso del Cavaliere 100, 00133 Rome, Italy
M. Petracca
ISAC-CNR, UOS of Rome, via del Fosso del Cavaliere 100, 00133 Rome, Italy
G. Panegrossi
ISAC-CNR, UOS of Rome, via del Fosso del Cavaliere 100, 00133 Rome, Italy
ISAC-CNR, UOS of Rome, via del Fosso del Cavaliere 100, 00133 Rome, Italy
D. Casella
ISAC-CNR, UOS of Rome, via del Fosso del Cavaliere 100, 00133 Rome, Italy
S. Dietrich
ISAC-CNR, UOS of Rome, via del Fosso del Cavaliere 100, 00133 Rome, Italy
Related authors
Rosa Claudia Torcasio, Alessandra Mascitelli, Eugenio Realini, Stefano Barindelli, Giulio Tagliaferro, Silvia Puca, Stefano Dietrich, and Stefano Federico
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3319–3336, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3319-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3319-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work shows how local observations can improve precipitation forecasting for severe weather events. The improvement lasts for at least 6 h of forecast.
Stefano Federico, Rosa Claudia Torcasio, Elenio Avolio, Olivier Caumont, Mario Montopoli, Luca Baldini, Gianfranco Vulpiani, and Stefano Dietrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1839–1864, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1839-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1839-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This study shows the possibility to improve the weather forecast at the very short range (0–3 h) using lightning and/or radar reflectivity observations. We consider two challenging events that occurred over Italy, named Serrano and Livorno, characterized by moderate and exceptional rainfall, respectively.
The improvement given to the forecast by using the lightning and/or radar reflectivity observations is considerable. The best performance is obtained when using both data.
Monica Campanelli, Alessandra Mascitelli, Paolo Sanò, Henri Diémoz, Victor Estellés, Stefano Federico, Anna Maria Iannarelli, Francesca Fratarcangeli, Augusto Mazzoni, Eugenio Realini, Mattia Crespi, Olivier Bock, Jose A. Martínez-Lozano, and Stefano Dietrich
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 81–94, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-81-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-81-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The estimation of precipitable water vapour (W) content is of great interest in both meteorological and climatological studies. Sun photometers allowed the development of W automatic estimations with high temporal resolution. A new methodology, based on the hypothesis that the calibration parameters characterizing the atmospheric transmittance are dependent on vertical profiles of temperature, air pressure and moisture typical of each measurement site, has been presented providing good results.
Stefano Federico, Marco Petracca, Giulia Panegrossi, Claudio Transerici, and Stefano Dietrich
Adv. Sci. Res., 14, 187–194, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-187-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-187-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the impact of using lightning data on the precipitation forecast at different forecast ranges (3–24 h). Twenty case studies, occurred over Italy in fall 2012, are selected to show the impact.
Results show the important and positive impact of using lightning data to improve the precipitation forecast. The time range, however, is very important because the performance decreases steadily and substantially with forecasting time.
Stefano Federico, Rosa Claudia Torcasio, Paolo Sanò, Daniele Casella, Monica Campanelli, Jan Fokke Meirink, Ping Wang, Stefania Vergari, Henri Diémoz, and Stefano Dietrich
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 2337–2352, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-2337-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-2337-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we evaluate the performance of two estimates of the global horizontal irradiance (GHI), one derived from the Meteosat Second Generation and one from a meteorological model (Regional Atmospheric Modeling System) forecast. The focus area is Italy, and the performance is evaluated for 12 pyranometers spanning a range of climate conditions, from Mediterranean maritime to Alpine.
Stefano Federico, Marco Petracca, Giulia Panegrossi, and Stefano Dietrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 61–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-61-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-61-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The motivation of this study is to use lightning observations to improve the precipitation forecast at the short range (3 h). For this purpose 20 case studies, occurring in fall 2012, were analyzed using a meteorological model, whose set-up is applicable in real-time weather forecasting. Lightning observations were provided by the LINET network. Results show a systematic improvement of the 3 h precipitation forecast when lightning observations are used.
Elenio Avolio, Rosa Claudia Torcasio, Teresa Lo Feudo, Claudia Roberta Calidonna, Daniele Contini, and Stefano Federico
Adv. Sci. Res., 13, 69–73, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-13-69-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-13-69-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The improvement of the Solar and Wind short-term forecasting represents a critical goal for the weather prediction community and is of great importance for a better estimation of power production from solar and wind farms.
In this work we analyze the performance of two deterministic models operational at ISAC-CNR for the prediction of short-wave irradiance and wind speed, at two experimental sites in southern Italy.
Rosa Claudia Torcasio, Stefano Federico, Claudia Roberta Calidonna, Elenio Avolio, Oxana Drofa, Tony Christian Landi, Piero Malguzzi, Andrea Buzzi, and Paolo Bonasoni
Ann. Geophys., 34, 347–356, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-34-347-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-34-347-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Quality of wind prediction is of great importance since a good wind forecast allows the prediction of available wind power, improving the penetration of renewable energies into the energy market.
This work shows the application of a technique to improve wind forecasting. The study area is southern Italy.
L. Tiriolo, R. C. Torcasio, S. Montesanti, A. M. Sempreviva, C. R. Calidonna, C. Transerici, and S. Federico
Adv. Sci. Res., 12, 37–44, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-37-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-37-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We show a study of the prediction of power production of a wind farm located in Central Italy using RAMS model for wind speed forecast.
S. Federico
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 6, 3563–3576, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-6-3563-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-6-3563-2013, 2013
Hannes Konrad, Rémy Roca, Anja Niedorf, Stephan Finkensieper, Marc Schröder, Sophie Cloché, Giulia Panegrossi, Paolo Sanò, Christopher Kidd, Rômulo Augusto Jucá Oliveira, Karsten Fennig, Thomas Sikorski, Madeleine Lemoine, and Rainer Hollmann
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-568, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2024-568, 2025
Preprint under review for ESSD
Short summary
Short summary
GIRAFE v1 is a global satellite-based precipitation dataset covering 2002 to 2022. It combines high-accuracy microwave and high-resolution infrared observations for retrieving daily precipitation, a respective sampling uncertainty for a more robust analysis, and monthly means. It is intended and suitable for climate monitoring and research, allowing also studies for water management, agriculture, and disaster risk reduction. A continuous extension from 2023 onwards will be implemented in 2025.
Annalina Lombardi, Barbara Tomassetti, Valentina Colaiuda, Ludovico Di Antonio, Paolo Tuccella, Mario Montopoli, Giovanni Ravazzani, Frank Silvio Marzano, Raffaele Lidori, and Giulia Panegrossi
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 3777–3797, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3777-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-3777-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The accurate estimation of precipitation and its spatial variability within a watershed is crucial for reliable discharge simulations. The study is the first detailed analysis of the potential usage of the cellular automata technique to merge different rainfall data inputs to hydrological models. This work shows an improvement in the performance of hydrological simulations when satellite and rain gauge data are merged.
Andrea Camplani, Daniele Casella, Paolo Sanò, and Giulia Panegrossi
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 2195–2217, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-2195-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-2195-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The paper describes a new machine-learning-based snowfall retrieval algorithm for Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder observations developed to retrieve high-latitude snowfall events. The main novelty of the approach is the radiometric characterization of the background surface at the time of the overpass, which is ancillary to the retrieval process. The algorithm shows a unique capability to retrieve snowfall in the environmental conditions typical of high latitudes.
Rosa Claudia Torcasio, Alessandra Mascitelli, Eugenio Realini, Stefano Barindelli, Giulio Tagliaferro, Silvia Puca, Stefano Dietrich, and Stefano Federico
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3319–3336, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3319-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3319-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work shows how local observations can improve precipitation forecasting for severe weather events. The improvement lasts for at least 6 h of forecast.
Monica Campanelli, Henri Diémoz, Anna Maria Siani, Alcide di Sarra, Anna Maria Iannarelli, Rei Kudo, Gabriele Fasano, Giampietro Casasanta, Luca Tofful, Marco Cacciani, Paolo Sanò, and Stefano Dietrich
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 1171–1183, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-1171-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-1171-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The aerosol optical depth (AOD) characteristics in an urban area of Rome were retrieved over a period of 11 years (2010–2020) to determine, for the first time, their effect on the incoming ultraviolet (UV) solar radiation. The surface forcing efficiency shows that the AOD is the primary parameter affecting the surface irradiance in Rome, and it is found to be greater for smaller zenith angles and for larger and more absorbing particles in the UV range (such as, e.g., mineral dust).
Stefano Federico, Rosa Claudia Torcasio, Elenio Avolio, Olivier Caumont, Mario Montopoli, Luca Baldini, Gianfranco Vulpiani, and Stefano Dietrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1839–1864, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1839-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1839-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This study shows the possibility to improve the weather forecast at the very short range (0–3 h) using lightning and/or radar reflectivity observations. We consider two challenging events that occurred over Italy, named Serrano and Livorno, characterized by moderate and exceptional rainfall, respectively.
The improvement given to the forecast by using the lightning and/or radar reflectivity observations is considerable. The best performance is obtained when using both data.
Monica Campanelli, Alessandra Mascitelli, Paolo Sanò, Henri Diémoz, Victor Estellés, Stefano Federico, Anna Maria Iannarelli, Francesca Fratarcangeli, Augusto Mazzoni, Eugenio Realini, Mattia Crespi, Olivier Bock, Jose A. Martínez-Lozano, and Stefano Dietrich
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 11, 81–94, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-81-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-11-81-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The estimation of precipitable water vapour (W) content is of great interest in both meteorological and climatological studies. Sun photometers allowed the development of W automatic estimations with high temporal resolution. A new methodology, based on the hypothesis that the calibration parameters characterizing the atmospheric transmittance are dependent on vertical profiles of temperature, air pressure and moisture typical of each measurement site, has been presented providing good results.
Stefano Federico, Marco Petracca, Giulia Panegrossi, Claudio Transerici, and Stefano Dietrich
Adv. Sci. Res., 14, 187–194, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-187-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-14-187-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the impact of using lightning data on the precipitation forecast at different forecast ranges (3–24 h). Twenty case studies, occurred over Italy in fall 2012, are selected to show the impact.
Results show the important and positive impact of using lightning data to improve the precipitation forecast. The time range, however, is very important because the performance decreases steadily and substantially with forecasting time.
Stefano Federico, Rosa Claudia Torcasio, Paolo Sanò, Daniele Casella, Monica Campanelli, Jan Fokke Meirink, Ping Wang, Stefania Vergari, Henri Diémoz, and Stefano Dietrich
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 2337–2352, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-2337-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-2337-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we evaluate the performance of two estimates of the global horizontal irradiance (GHI), one derived from the Meteosat Second Generation and one from a meteorological model (Regional Atmospheric Modeling System) forecast. The focus area is Italy, and the performance is evaluated for 12 pyranometers spanning a range of climate conditions, from Mediterranean maritime to Alpine.
Stefano Federico, Marco Petracca, Giulia Panegrossi, and Stefano Dietrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 61–76, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-61-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-61-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The motivation of this study is to use lightning observations to improve the precipitation forecast at the short range (3 h). For this purpose 20 case studies, occurring in fall 2012, were analyzed using a meteorological model, whose set-up is applicable in real-time weather forecasting. Lightning observations were provided by the LINET network. Results show a systematic improvement of the 3 h precipitation forecast when lightning observations are used.
Martina Buiat, Federico Porcù, and Stefano Dietrich
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 221–230, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-221-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-221-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The cloud radar on board the NASA CloudSat mission provides information on the vertical structure of the cloud that, in the present study, is matched to ground-based measurements of lightning occurrences. The aim of this research was to study the relationship between the ice content of the cloud and its capability to produce lightning. Results show the importance of high ice content, especially close to the cloud top, for producing lightning.
Paolo Sanò, Giulia Panegrossi, Daniele Casella, Anna C. Marra, Francesco Di Paola, and Stefano Dietrich
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 5441–5460, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-5441-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-5441-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The objective of this paper is to describe the development and evaluate the performance of a totally new version of the Passive microwave Neural network Precipitation Retrieval (PNPR v2), an algorithm based on a neural network approach, designed to retrieve the instantaneous surface precipitation rate using the cross-track ATMS radiometer measurements.
Elenio Avolio, Rosa Claudia Torcasio, Teresa Lo Feudo, Claudia Roberta Calidonna, Daniele Contini, and Stefano Federico
Adv. Sci. Res., 13, 69–73, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-13-69-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-13-69-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The improvement of the Solar and Wind short-term forecasting represents a critical goal for the weather prediction community and is of great importance for a better estimation of power production from solar and wind farms.
In this work we analyze the performance of two deterministic models operational at ISAC-CNR for the prediction of short-wave irradiance and wind speed, at two experimental sites in southern Italy.
Rosa Claudia Torcasio, Stefano Federico, Claudia Roberta Calidonna, Elenio Avolio, Oxana Drofa, Tony Christian Landi, Piero Malguzzi, Andrea Buzzi, and Paolo Bonasoni
Ann. Geophys., 34, 347–356, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-34-347-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-34-347-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Quality of wind prediction is of great importance since a good wind forecast allows the prediction of available wind power, improving the penetration of renewable energies into the energy market.
This work shows the application of a technique to improve wind forecasting. The study area is southern Italy.
N. Roberto, E. Adirosi, L. Baldini, D. Casella, S. Dietrich, P. Gatlin, G. Panegrossi, M. Petracca, P. Sanò, and A. Tokay
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 9, 535–552, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-535-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-9-535-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines various microphysical properties of liquid and solid hydrometeors to investigate their relationship with lightning activity. Measurements were collected from the Polar 55C dual-polarization radar, a 2-DVD, and LINET. From the analysis of three significant case studies, linear relations between the total mass of graupel and the number of strokes were found. Results point out the key role of ice mass in determining the electrical charging of convective clouds.
L. Tiriolo, R. C. Torcasio, S. Montesanti, A. M. Sempreviva, C. R. Calidonna, C. Transerici, and S. Federico
Adv. Sci. Res., 12, 37–44, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-37-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-12-37-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We show a study of the prediction of power production of a wind farm located in Central Italy using RAMS model for wind speed forecast.
D. Casella, G. Panegrossi, P. Sanò, L. Milani, M. Petracca, and S. Dietrich
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 8, 1217–1232, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-1217-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-1217-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The CCA algorithm is applicable to any modern passive microwave radiometer on board polar orbiting satellites; it has been developed using a data set of co-located SSMIS and TRMM-PR measurements and AMSU-MHS and TRMM-PR measurements. The algorithm shows a small rate of false alarms and superior detection capability and can efficiently detect (POD between 0.55 and 0.71) minimum rain rate varying from 0.14 mm/h (AMSU over ocean) to 0.41 (SSMIS over coast).
P. Sanò, G. Panegrossi, D. Casella, F. Di Paola, L. Milani, A. Mugnai, M. Petracca, and S. Dietrich
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 8, 837–857, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-837-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-8-837-2015, 2015
L. Milani, F. Porcù, D. Casella, S. Dietrich, G. Panegrossi, M. Petracca, and P. Sanò
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tcd-9-141-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/tcd-9-141-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
The aim of this work is to show that the CloudSat Cloud Profiling Radar (CPR) can be a valuable source of snowfall rate data in Antarctica that can be used at different temporal scales. Two years of CloudSat data over Antarctica are analyzed and two different approaches for precipitation estimates are considered. The results show that CPR can provide valuable support to the sparse network of ground-based instruments both for numerical model validation and climatological studies.
R. Ferretti, E. Pichelli, S. Gentile, I. Maiello, D. Cimini, S. Davolio, M. M. Miglietta, G. Panegrossi, L. Baldini, F. Pasi, F. S. Marzano, A. Zinzi, S. Mariani, M. Casaioli, G. Bartolini, N. Loglisci, A. Montani, C. Marsigli, A. Manzato, A. Pucillo, M. E. Ferrario, V. Colaiuda, and R. Rotunno
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1953–1977, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1953-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1953-2014, 2014
S. Federico
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 6, 3563–3576, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-6-3563-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-6-3563-2013, 2013
A. Mugnai, D. Casella, E. Cattani, S. Dietrich, S. Laviola, V. Levizzani, G. Panegrossi, M. Petracca, P. Sanò, F. Di Paola, D. Biron, L. De Leonibus, D. Melfi, P. Rosci, A. Vocino, F. Zauli, P. Pagliara, S. Puca, A. Rinollo, L. Milani, F. Porcù, and F. Gattari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1959–1981, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1959-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1959-2013, 2013
E. A. Smith, H. W.-Y. Leung, J. B. Elsner, A. V. Mehta, G. J. Tripoli, D. Casella, S. Dietrich, A. Mugnai, G. Panegrossi, and P. Sanò
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1185–1208, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1185-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1185-2013, 2013
M. Formenton, G. Panegrossi, D. Casella, S. Dietrich, A. Mugnai, P. Sanò, F. Di Paola, H.-D. Betz, C. Price, and Y. Yair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1085–1104, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1085-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1085-2013, 2013
A. Mugnai, E. A. Smith, G. J. Tripoli, B. Bizzarri, D. Casella, S. Dietrich, F. Di Paola, G. Panegrossi, and P. Sanò
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 887–912, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-887-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-887-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Atmospheric, Meteorological and Climatological Hazards
Soil moisture–atmosphere coupling strength over central Europe in the recent warming climate
A data-driven framework for assessing climatic impact drivers in the context of food security
Soil conditioner mixtures as an agricultural management alternative to mitigate drought impacts: a proof of concept
Compound winter low-wind and cold events impacting the French electricity system: observed evolution and role of large-scale circulation
Probabilistic hazard analysis of the gas emission of Mefite d'Ansanto, southern Italy
Are heavy-rainfall events a major trigger of associated natural hazards along the German rail network?
Brief communication: Forecasting extreme precipitation from atmospheric rivers in New Zealand
The record-breaking precipitation event of December 2022 in Portugal
Compound events in Germany in 2018: drivers and case studies
Assimilation of temperature and relative humidity observations from personal weather stations in AROME-France
The anomalously thundery month of June 1925 in southwest Spain: description and synoptic analysis
Spatial identification of regions exposed to multi-hazards at the pan-European level
Classification of North Atlantic and European extratropical cyclones using multiple measures of intensity
Subseasonal forecasts of heat waves in West African cities
Impacts on and damage to European forests from the 2018–2022 heat and drought events
Brief communication: Training of AI-based nowcasting models for rainfall early warning should take into account user requirements
Examining the Eastern European extreme summer temperatures of 2023 from a long-term perspective: the role of natural variability vs. anthropogenic factors
How well are hazards associated with derechos reproduced in regional climate simulations?
Reconstructing hail days in Switzerland with statistical models (1959–2022)
Exploring the interplay between observed warming, atmospheric circulation, and soil-atmosphere feedbacks on heatwaves in a temperate mountain region
Classifying extratropical cyclones and their impact on Finland’s electricity grid: Insights from 92 damaging windstorms
GTDI: a game-theory-based integrated drought index implying hazard-causing and hazard-bearing impact change
Insurance loss model vs. meteorological loss index – how comparable are their loss estimates for European windstorms?
Intense rains in Israel associated with the train effect
Review article: The growth in compound weather events research in the decade since SREX
Convection-permitting climate model representation of severe convective wind gusts and future changes in southeastern Australia
Impact-based temporal clustering of multiple meteorological hazard types in southwestern Germany
On the potential of using smartphone sensors for wildfire hazard estimation through citizen science
Global estimates of 100-year return values of daily precipitation from ensemble weather prediction data
Exploring the sensitivity of extreme event attribution of two recent extreme weather events in Sweden using long-running meteorological observations
Probabilistic short-range forecasts of high-precipitation events: optimal decision thresholds and predictability limits
The miscellaneous synoptic forcings in the four-day widespread extreme rainfall event over North China in July 2023
Surprise floods: the role of our imagination in preparing for disasters
Modelling crop hail damage footprints with single-polarization radar: the roles of spatial resolution, hail intensity, and cropland density
Insights into ground strike point properties in Europe through the EUCLID lightning location system
The role of citizen science in assessing the spatiotemporal pattern of rainfall events in urban areas: a case study in the city of Genoa, Italy
Precipitation extremes in Ukraine from 1979 to 2019: climatology, large-scale flow conditions, and moisture sources
Characterizing hail-prone environments using convection-permitting reanalysis and overshooting top detections over south-central Europe
Aircraft engine dust ingestion at global airports
Catchment-scale assessment of drought impact on environmental flow in the Indus Basin, Pakistan
The risk of synoptic-scale Arctic cyclones to shipping
Estimation of future rainfall extreme values by temperature-dependent disaggregation of climate model data
Climatic characteristics of the Jianghuai cyclone and its linkage with precipitation during the Meiyu period from 1961 to 2020
Verifying the relationships among the variabilities of summer precipitation extremes over western Japan in the d4PDF climate ensemble, monsoon activity, and Pacific sea surface temperature
An appraisal of the value of simulated weather data for quantifying coastal flood hazard in the Netherlands
The usefulness of Extended-Range Probabilistic Forecasts for Heat wave forecasts in Europe
Application of the teaching–learning-based optimization algorithm to an analytical model of thunderstorm outflows to analyze the variability of the downburst kinematic and geometric parameters
Projections and uncertainties of winter windstorm damage in Europe in a changing climate
Improving seasonal predictions of German Bight storm activity
A satellite view of the exceptionally warm summer of 2022 over Europe
Thomas Schwitalla, Lisa Jach, Volker Wulfmeyer, and Kirsten Warrach-Sagi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1405–1424, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1405-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1405-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
During recent decades, Europe has experienced increasing periods of severe drought and heatwave. To provide an overview of how land-surface conditions shape land–atmosphere (LA) coupling, the interannual LA coupling strength variability for the summer seasons of 1991–2022 is investigated by means of ERA5 data. The results clearly reflect ongoing climate change by a shift in the coupling relationships towards reinforced heating and drying by the land surface.
Marcos Roberto Benso, Roberto Fray Silva, Gabriela Chiquito Gesualdo, Antonio Mauro Saraiva, Alexandre Cláudio Botazzo Delbem, Patricia Angélica Alves Marques, José Antonio Marengo, and Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1387–1404, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1387-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1387-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study applies climate extreme indices to assess climate risks to food security. Using an explainable machine learning analysis, key climate indices affecting maize and soybean yields in Brazil were identified. Results reveal the temporal sensitivity of these indices and critical yield loss thresholds, informing policy and adaptation strategies.
Juan F. Dueñas, Edda Kunze, Huiying Li, and Matthias C. Rillig
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1377–1386, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1377-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1377-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated the potential of adding mixtures composed of minimum dosages of several popular amendment types to soil. Our goal was to increase the resistance of agricultural soil to drought stress. We found that adding mixtures of three to five amendment types increased the capacity of soil to retain water, reduced soil erosion, and increased fungal abundance while buffering soil from drastic changes in pH. More research is encouraged to validate this approach.
François Collet, Margot Bador, Julien Boé, Laurent Dubus, and Bénédicte Jourdier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 843–856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-843-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-843-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our aim is to characterize the observed evolution of compound winter low-wind and cold events impacting the French electricity system. The frequency of compound events exhibits a decrease over the 1950–2022 period, which is likely due to a decrease in cold days. Large-scale atmospheric circulation is an important driver of compound event occurrence and has likely contributed to the decrease in cold days, while we cannot draw conclusions on its influence on the decrease in compound events.
Fabio Dioguardi, Giovanni Chiodini, and Antonio Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 657–674, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-657-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-657-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present results of non-volcanic-gas (CO2) hazard assessment at the Mefite d’Ansanto area (Italy) where a cold-gas stream, which has already been lethal to humans and animals, forms in the valleys surrounding the emission zone. We took the uncertainty related to the gas emission and meteorological conditions into account. Results include maps of CO2 concentrations at defined probability levels and the probability of overcoming specified CO2 concentrations over specified time intervals.
Sonja Szymczak, Frederick Bott, Vigile Marie Fabella, and Katharina Fricke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 683–707, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-683-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-683-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the correlation between heavy-rainfall events and three associated natural hazards along the German rail network using GIS analyses and random-effects logistic models. The results show that 23 % of floods, 14 % of gravitational mass movements, and 2 % of tree fall events between 2017 and 2020 occurred after a heavy-rainfall event, and the probability of occurrence of flood and tree fall events significantly increased. This study contributes to more resilient rail transport.
Daniel G. Kingston, Liam Cooper, David A. Lavers, and David M. Hannah
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 675–682, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-675-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-675-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme rainfall comprises a major hydrohazard for New Zealand and is commonly associated with atmospheric rivers – narrow plumes of very high atmospheric moisture transport. Here, we focus on improved forecasting of these events by testing a forecasting tool previously applied to similar situations in western Europe. However, our results for New Zealand suggest the performance of this forecasting tool may vary depending on geographical setting.
Tiago M. Ferreira, Ricardo M. Trigo, Tomás H. Gaspar, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Alexandre M. Ramos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 609–623, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-609-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-609-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the synoptic evolution associated with the occurrence of an atmospheric river that led to a 24 h record-breaking extreme precipitation event (120.3 mm) in Lisbon, Portugal, on 13 December 2022. The synoptic background allowed the formation, on 10 December, of an atmospheric river associated with a deep extratropical cyclone and with a high moisture content and an inflow of moisture, due to the warm conveyor belt, throughout its life cycle. The system made landfall on 12 December.
Elena Xoplaki, Florian Ellsäßer, Jens Grieger, Katrin M. Nissen, Joaquim G. Pinto, Markus Augenstein, Ting-Chen Chen, Hendrik Feldmann, Petra Friederichs, Daniel Gliksman, Laura Goulier, Karsten Haustein, Jens Heinke, Lisa Jach, Florian Knutzen, Stefan Kollet, Jürg Luterbacher, Niklas Luther, Susanna Mohr, Christoph Mudersbach, Christoph Müller, Efi Rousi, Felix Simon, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Svenja Szemkus, Sara M. Vallejo-Bernal, Odysseas Vlachopoulos, and Frederik Wolf
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 541–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-541-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-541-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Europe frequently experiences compound events, with major impacts. We investigate these events’ interactions, characteristics, and changes over time, focusing on socio-economic impacts in Germany and central Europe. Highlighting 2018’s extreme events, this study reveals impacts on water, agriculture, and forests and stresses the need for impact-focused definitions and better future risk quantification to support adaptation planning.
Alan Demortier, Marc Mandement, Vivien Pourret, and Olivier Caumont
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 429–449, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-429-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-429-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The use of numerical weather prediction models enables the forecasting of hazardous weather situations. The incorporation of new temperature and relative humidity observations from personal weather stations into the French limited-area model is evaluated in this study. This leads to the improvement of the associated near-surface variables of the model during the first hours of the forecast. Examples are provided for a sea breeze case during a heatwave and a fog episode.
Francisco Javier Acero, Manuel Antón, Alejandro Jesús Pérez Aparicio, Nieves Bravo-Paredes, Víctor Manuel Sánchez Carrasco, María Cruz Gallego, José Agustín García, Marcelino Núñez, Irene Tovar, Javier Vaquero-Martínez, and José Manuel Vaquero
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 305–320, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-305-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-305-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The month of June 1925 was found to be exceptional in the southwest interior of the Iberian Peninsula due to the large number of thunderstorms and their significant impacts, with serious losses of human lives and material resources. We analyzed this event from different, complementary perspectives: reconstruction of the history of the events from newspapers, study of monthly meteorological variables of the longest series available, and the analysis of the meteorological synoptic situation.
Tiberiu-Eugen Antofie, Stefano Luoni, Aloïs Tilloy, Andrea Sibilia, Sandro Salari, Gustav Eklund, Davide Rodomonti, Christos Bountzouklis, and Christina Corbane
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 287–304, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-287-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-287-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This is the first study that uses spatial patterns (clusters/hotspots) and meta-analysis in order to identify the regions at a European level at risk of multi-hazards. The findings point out the socioeconomic dimension as a determining factor in the potential risk of multi-hazards. The outcome provides valuable input for the disaster risk management policy support and will assist national authorities on the implementation of a multi-hazard approach in national risk assessment preparation.
Joona Cornér, Clément Bouvier, Benjamin Doiteau, Florian Pantillon, and Victoria A. Sinclair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 207–229, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-207-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-207-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Classification reduces the considerable variability between extratropical cyclones (ETCs) and thus simplifies studying their representation in climate models and changes in the future climate. In this paper we present an objective classification of ETCs using measures of ETC intensity. This is motivated by the aim of finding a set of ETC intensity measures which together comprehensively describe both the dynamical and impact-relevant nature of ETC intensity.
Cedric G. Ngoungue Langue, Christophe Lavaysse, and Cyrille Flamant
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 147–168, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-147-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-147-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The present study addresses the predictability of heat waves at subseasonal timescales in West African cities over the period 2001–2020. Two models, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the UK Met Office models, were evaluated using two reanalyses: ERA5 and MERRA. The results suggest that at subseasonal timescales, the forecast models provide a better forecast than climatology, but the hit rate and false alarm rate are sub-optimal.
Florian Knutzen, Paul Averbeck, Caterina Barrasso, Laurens M. Bouwer, Barry Gardiner, José M. Grünzweig, Sabine Hänel, Karsten Haustein, Marius Rohde Johannessen, Stefan Kollet, Mortimer M. Müller, Joni-Pekka Pietikäinen, Karolina Pietras-Couffignal, Joaquim G. Pinto, Diana Rechid, Efi Rousi, Ana Russo, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Sarah Veit, Julian Wendler, Elena Xoplaki, and Daniel Gliksman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 77–117, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-77-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-77-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our research, involving 22 European scientists, investigated drought and heat impacts on forests in 2018–2022. Findings reveal that climate extremes are intensifying, with central Europe being most severely impacted. The southern region showed resilience due to historical drought exposure, while northern and Alpine areas experienced emerging or minimal impacts. The study highlights the need for region-specific strategies, improved data collection, and sustainable practices to safeguard forests.
Georgy Ayzel and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 41–47, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-41-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-41-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasting rainfall over the next hour is an essential feature of early warning systems. Deep learning (DL) has emerged as a powerful alternative to conventional nowcasting technologies, but it still struggles to adequately predict impact-relevant heavy rainfall. We think that DL could do much better if the training tasks were defined more specifically and that such specification presents an opportunity to better align the output of nowcasting models with actual user requirements.
Monica Ionita, Petru Vaideanu, Bogdan Antonescu, Catalin Roibu, Qiyun Ma, and Viorica Nagavciuc
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4683–4706, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4683-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Eastern Europe's heat wave history is explored from 1885 to 2023, with a focus on pre-1960 events. The study reveals two periods with more frequent and intense heat waves (HWs): 1920s–1960s and 1980s–present. The research highlights the importance of a long-term perspective, revealing that extreme heat events have occurred throughout the entire study period, and it emphasizes the combined influence of climate change and natural variations on increasing HW severity.
Tristan Shepherd, Frederick Letson, Rebecca J. Barthelmie, and Sara C. Pryor
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4473–4505, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4473-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4473-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A historic derecho in the USA is presented. The 29 June 2012 derecho caused more than 20 deaths and millions of US dollars of damage. We use a regional climate model to understand how model fidelity changes under different initial conditions. We find changes drive different convective conditions, resulting in large variation in the simulated hazards. The variation using different reanalysis data shows that framing these results in the context of contemporary and future climate is a challenge.
Lena Wilhelm, Cornelia Schwierz, Katharina Schröer, Mateusz Taszarek, and Olivia Martius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3869–3894, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3869-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3869-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In our study we used statistical models to reconstruct past hail days in Switzerland from 1959–2022. This new time series reveals a significant increase in hail day occurrences over the last 7 decades. We link this trend to increases in moisture and instability variables in the models. This time series can now be used to unravel the complexities of Swiss hail occurrence and to understand what drives its year-to-year variability.
Marc Lemus-Canovas, Sergi Gonzalez-Herrero, Laura Trapero, Anna Albalat, Damian Insua-Costa, Martin Senande-Rivera, and Gonzalo Miguez-Macho
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-192, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-192, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores the 2022 heatwaves in the Pyrenees, examining the factors that contributed to their intensity and distribution. The June event was driven by strong winds that created uneven temperature patterns, while the July heatwave featured calmer conditions and more uniform temperatures. Human-driven climate change has made these heatwaves more severe compared to the past. This research helps us better understand how climate change affects extreme weather in mountainous regions.
Ilona Láng-Ritter, Terhi Kristiina Laurila, Antti Mäkelä, Hilppa Gregow, and VIctoria Anne SInclair
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3019, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3019, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a classification method for extratropical cyclones and windstorms and show their impacts on Finland's electricity grid by analysing 92 most damaging windstorms (2005–2018). The southwest- and northwest-originating windstorms cause the most damage to the power grid. The most relevant parameters for damage are the wind gust speed and extent of wind gusts. Windstorms are more frequent and damaging in autumn and winter, but weaker wind speeds in summer also cause significant damage.
Xiaowei Zhao, Tianzeng Yang, Hongbo Zhang, Tian Lan, Chaowei Xue, Tongfang Li, Zhaoxia Ye, Zhifang Yang, and Yurou Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3479–3495, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3479-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3479-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To effectively track and identify droughts, we developed a novel integrated drought index that combines the effects of precipitation, temperature, and soil moisture on drought. After comparison and verification, the integrated drought index shows superior performance compared to a single meteorological drought index or agricultural drought index in terms of drought identification.
Julia Moemken, Inovasita Alifdini, Alexandre M. Ramos, Alexandros Georgiadis, Aidan Brocklehurst, Lukas Braun, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3445–3460, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3445-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3445-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
European windstorms regularly cause damage to natural and human-made environments, leading to high socio-economic losses. For the first time, we compare estimates of these losses using a meteorological loss index (LI) and the insurance loss (catastrophe) model of Aon Impact Forecasting. We find that LI underestimates high-impact windstorms compared to the insurance model. Nonetheless, due to its simplicity, LI is an effective index, suitable for estimating impacts and ranking storm events.
Baruch Ziv, Uri Dayan, Lidiya Shendrik, and Elyakom Vadislavsky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3267–3277, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3267-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3267-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The train effect is related to convective cells that pass over the same place. Trains produce heavy rainfall and sometimes floods and are reported in North America during spring and summer. In Israel, 17 trains associated with Cyprus lows were identified by radar images and were found within the cold sector south of the low center and in the left flank of a maximum wind belt; they cross the Israeli coast, with a mean length of 45 km; last 1–3 h; and yield 35 mm of rainfall up to 60 mm.
Lou Brett, Christopher J. White, Daniela I.V. Domeisen, Bart van den Hurk, Philip Ward, and Jakob Zscheischler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-182, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-182, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Compound events, where multiple weather or climate hazards occur together, pose significant risks to both society and the environment. These events, like simultaneous wind and rain, can have more severe impacts than single hazards. Our review of compound event research from 2012–2022 reveals a rise in studies, especially on events that occur concurrently, hot and dry events and compounding flooding. The review also highlights opportunities for research in the coming years.
Andrew Brown, Andrew Dowdy, and Todd P. Lane
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3225–3243, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3225-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3225-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A computer model that simulates the climate of southeastern Australia is shown here to represent extreme wind events associated with convective storms. This is useful as it allows us to investigate possible future changes in the occurrences of these events, and we find in the year 2050 that our model simulates a decrease in the number of occurrences. However, the model also simulates too many events in the historical climate compared with observations, so these future changes are uncertain.
Katharina Küpfer, Alexandre Tuel, and Michael Kunz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2803, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2803, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using loss data, we assess when and how single and multiple types of meteorological extremes (river floods and heavy rainfall events, windstorms and convective gusts, and hail). We find that the combination of several types of hazards clusters robustly on a seasonal scale, whereas only some single hazard types occur in clusters. This can be associated with higher losses compared to isolated events. We argue for the relevance of jointly considering multiple types of hazards.
Hofit Shachaf, Colin Price, Dorita Rostkier-Edelstein, and Cliff Mass
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3035–3047, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3035-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3035-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We have used the temperature and relative humidity sensors in smartphones to estimate the vapor pressure deficit (VPD), an important atmospheric parameter closely linked to fuel moisture and wildfire risk. Our analysis for two severe wildfire case studies in Israel and Portugal shows the potential for using smartphone data to compliment the regular weather station network while also providing high spatial resolution of the VPD index.
Florian Ruff and Stephan Pfahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2939–2952, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2939-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2939-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
High-impact river floods are often caused by extreme precipitation. Flood protection relies on reliable estimates of the return values. Observational time series are too short for a precise calculation. Here, 100-year return values of daily precipitation are estimated on a global grid based on a large set of model-generated precipitation events from ensemble weather prediction. The statistical uncertainties in the return values can be substantially reduced compared to observational estimates.
Erik Holmgren and Erik Kjellström
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2875–2893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2875-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2875-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Associating extreme weather events with changes in the climate remains difficult. We have explored two ways these relationships can be investigated: one using a more common method and one relying solely on long-running records of meteorological observations.
Our results show that while both methods lead to similar conclusions for two recent weather events in Sweden, the commonly used method risks underestimating the strength of the connection between the event and changes to the climate.
François Bouttier and Hugo Marchal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2793–2816, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2793-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2793-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Weather prediction uncertainties can be described as sets of possible scenarios – a technique called ensemble prediction. Our machine learning technique translates them into more easily interpretable scenarios for various users, balancing the detection of high precipitation with false alarms. Key parameters are precipitation intensity and space and time scales of interest. We show that the approach can be used to facilitate warnings of extreme precipitation.
Jinfang Yin, Feng Li, Mingxin Li, Rudi Xia, Xinghua Bao, Jisong Sun, and Xudong Liang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-145, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-145, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
A persistent severe rainfall event occurred over North China in July 2023, which was regarded as one of the precipitation extremes of 2023 globally. The extreme rainfall was significant underestimated by forecasters at that time. Flooding from this event affected 1.3 million people, causing severe human casualties and significant economic losses. In this study, we examined the convective initiation and subsequent persistent heavy rainfall over North China based on simulations with the WRF model.
Joy Ommer, Jessica Neumann, Milan Kalas, Sophie Blackburn, and Hannah L. Cloke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2633–2646, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2633-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2633-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
What’s the worst that could happen? Recent floods are often claimed to be beyond our imagination. Imagination is the picturing of a situation in our mind and the emotions that we connect with this situation. But why is this important for disasters? This survey found that when we cannot imagine a devastating flood, we are not preparing in advance. Severe-weather forecasts and warnings need to advance in order to trigger our imagination of what might happen and enable us to start preparing.
Raphael Portmann, Timo Schmid, Leonie Villiger, David N. Bresch, and Pierluigi Calanca
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2541–2558, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2541-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2541-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study presents an open-source model to determine the occurrence of hail damage to field crops and grapevines after hailstorms in Switzerland based on radar, agricultural land use data, and insurance damage reports. The model performs best at 8 km resolution for field crops and 1 km for grapevine and in the main production areas. Highlighting performance trade-offs and the relevance of user needs, the study is a first step towards the assessment of risk and damage for crops in Switzerland.
Dieter Roel Poelman, Hannes Kohlmann, and Wolfgang Schulz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2511–2522, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2511-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2511-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
EUCLID's lightning data unveil distinctive ground strike point (GSP) patterns in Europe. Over seas, GSPs per flash surpass inland, reaching a minimum in the Alps. Mountainous areas like the Alps and Pyrenees have the closest GSP separation, highlighting terrain elevation's impact. The daily peak current correlates with average GSPs per flash. These findings could significantly influence lightning protection measures, urging a focus on GSP density rather than flash density for risk assessment.
Nicola Loglisci, Giorgio Boni, Arianna Cauteruccio, Francesco Faccini, Massimo Milelli, Guido Paliaga, and Antonio Parodi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2495–2510, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2495-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2495-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse the meteo-hydrological features of the 27 and 28 August 2023 event that occurred in Genoa. Rainfall observations were made using rain gauge networks based on either official networks or citizen science networks. The merged analysis stresses the spatial variability in the precipitation, which cannot be captured by the current spatial density of authoritative stations. Results show that at minimal distances the variations in cumulated rainfall over a sub-hourly duration are significant.
Ellina Agayar, Franziska Aemisegger, Moshe Armon, Alexander Scherrmann, and Heini Wernli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2441–2459, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2441-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2441-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the results of a climatological investigation of extreme precipitation events (EPEs) in Ukraine for the period 1979–2019. During all seasons EPEs are associated with pronounced upper-level potential vorticity (PV) anomalies. In addition, we find distinct seasonal and regional differences in moisture sources. Several extreme precipitation cases demonstrate the importance of these processes, complemented by a detailed synoptic analysis.
Antonio Giordani, Michael Kunz, Kristopher M. Bedka, Heinz Jürgen Punge, Tiziana Paccagnella, Valentina Pavan, Ines M. L. Cerenzia, and Silvana Di Sabatino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2331–2357, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2331-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To improve the challenging representation of hazardous hailstorms, a proxy for hail frequency based on satellite detections, convective parameters from high-resolution reanalysis, and crowd-sourced reports is tested and presented. Hail likelihood peaks in mid-summer at 15:00 UTC over northern Italy and shows improved agreement with observations compared to previous estimates. By separating ambient signatures based on hail severity, enhanced appropriateness for large-hail occurrence is found.
Claire L. Ryder, Clément Bézier, Helen F. Dacre, Rory Clarkson, Vassilis Amiridis, Eleni Marinou, Emmanouil Proestakis, Zak Kipling, Angela Benedetti, Mark Parrington, Samuel Rémy, and Mark Vaughan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2263–2284, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2263-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2263-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Desert dust poses a hazard to aircraft via degradation of engine components. This has financial implications for the aviation industry and results in increased fuel burn with climate impacts. Here we quantify dust ingestion by aircraft engines at airports worldwide. We find Dubai and Delhi in summer are among the dustiest airports, where substantial engine degradation would occur after 1000 flights. Dust ingestion can be reduced by changing take-off times and the altitude of holding patterns.
Khalil Ur Rahman, Songhao Shang, Khaled Saeed Balkhair, Hamza Farooq Gabriel, Khan Zaib Jadoon, and Kifayat Zaman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2191–2214, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2191-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2191-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper assesses the impact of drought (meteorological drought) on the hydrological alterations in major rivers of the Indus Basin. Threshold regression and range of variability analysis are used to determine the drought severity and times where drought has caused low flows and extreme low flows (identified using indicators of hydrological alterations). Moreover, this study also examines the degree of alterations in river flows due to drought using the hydrological alteration factor.
Alexander Frank Vessey, Kevin I. Hodges, Len C. Shaffrey, and Jonathan J. Day
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2115–2132, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2115-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2115-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The risk posed to ships by Arctic cyclones has seldom been quantified due to the lack of publicly available historical Arctic ship track data. This study investigates historical Arctic ship tracks, cyclone tracks, and shipping incident reports to determine the number of shipping incidents caused by the passage of Arctic cyclones. Results suggest that Arctic cyclones have not been hazardous to ships and that ships are resilient to the rough sea conditions caused by Arctic cyclones.
Niklas Ebers, Kai Schröter, and Hannes Müller-Thomy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2025–2043, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2025-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2025-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Future changes in sub-daily rainfall extreme values are essential in various hydrological fields, but climate scenarios typically offer only daily resolution. One solution is rainfall generation. With a temperature-dependent rainfall generator climate scenario data were disaggregated to 5 min rainfall time series for 45 locations across Germany. The analysis of the future 5 min rainfall time series showed an increase in the rainfall extremes values for rainfall durations of 5 min and 1 h.
Ran Zhu and Lei Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1937–1950, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1937-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1937-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
There is a positive correlation between the frequency of Jianghuai cyclone activity and precipitation during the Meiyu period. Its occurrence frequency has an obvious decadal variation, which corresponds well with the quasi-periodic and decadal variation in precipitation during the Meiyu period. This study provides a reference for the long-term and short-term forecasting of precipitation during the Meiyu period.
Shao-Yi Lee, Sicheng He, and Tetsuya Takemi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1304, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1304, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Summer rainfall extremes over western Japan were calculated every year, using radar, rain-gauges, and model. Similar regions were determined by machine learning. The relationships between regional rainfall extremes and Pacific climate modes. The modelled relationships were similar to the observed ones for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the warming trend. However, the model did not reproduce the relationship for Pacific Decadal Variability.
Cees de Valk and Henk van den Brink
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-912, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-912, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Recently updated flood safety norms in the Netherlands prescribe that sea dikes and other flood-protecting structures should withstand high sea levels reached very rarely, locally down to only once in 10 million years. We show that such levels can be estimated with reasonable accuracy by the cautious use of very large datasets of numerical simulations of weather and storm surge.
Natalia Korhonen, Otto Hyvärinen, Virpi Kollanus, Timo Lanki, Juha Jokisalo, Risto Kosonen, David S. Richardson, and Kirsti Jylhä
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-75, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-75, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
The skill of hindcasts of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in forecasting heat wave days (periods with the 5-day moving average temperature being above its local summer 90th percentile) over Europe 1 to 4 weeks ahead is examined. The heat wave days forecasts show potential in warning of heat risk in 1–2 weeks in advance, and enhanced accuracy in forecasting prolonged heat waves, in lead times of up to 3 weeks, when the heat wave had initiated prior to the forecast issuance.
Andi Xhelaj and Massimiliano Burlando
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1657–1679, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1657-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1657-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study provides an in-depth analysis of a severe downburst event in Sânnicolau Mare, Romania, utilizing an analytical model and optimization algorithm. The goal is to explore a multitude of generating solutions and to identify potential alternatives to the optimal solution. Advanced data analysis techniques help to discern three main distinct storm scenarios. For this particular event, the best overall solution from the optimization algorithm shows promise in reconstructing the downburst.
Luca G. Severino, Chahan M. Kropf, Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Christopher Fairless, Andries Jan de Vries, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1555–1578, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1555-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1555-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We combine climate projections from 30 climate models with a climate risk model to project winter windstorm damages in Europe under climate change. We study the uncertainty and sensitivity factors related to the modelling of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. We emphasize high uncertainties in the damage projections, with climate models primarily driving the uncertainty. We find climate change reshapes future European windstorm risk by altering damage locations and intensity.
Daniel Krieger, Sebastian Brune, Johanna Baehr, and Ralf Weisse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1539–1554, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1539-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Previous studies found that climate models can predict storm activity in the German Bight well for averages of 5–10 years but struggle in predicting the next winter season. Here, we improve winter storm activity predictions by linking them to physical phenomena that occur before the winter. We guess the winter storm activity from these phenomena and discard model solutions that stray too far from the guess. The remaining solutions then show much higher prediction skill for storm activity.
João P. A. Martins, Sara Caetano, Carlos Pereira, Emanuel Dutra, and Rita M. Cardoso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1501–1520, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1501-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1501-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Over Europe, 2022 was truly exceptional in terms of extreme heat conditions, both in terms of temperature anomalies and their temporal and spatial extent. The satellite all-sky land surface temperature (LST) is used to provide a climatological context to extreme heat events. Where drought conditions prevail, LST anomalies are higher than 2 m air temperature anomalies. ERA5-Land does not represent this effect correctly due to a misrepresentation of vegetation anomalies.
Cited articles
Altaratz, O., Levin, Z., Yair, Y., and Ziv, B.: Lightning activity over land and sea on the eastern coast of the Mediterranean, Mon. Weather Rev., 131, 2060–2070, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2003)131<2060:LAOLAS>2.0.CO;2, 2003.
Barthe, C., Molinie, G., and Pinty, J.: Description and first results of an explicit electrical scheme in a 3D cloud resolving model. Atmos. Res., 76, 95–113, 2005.
Barthe, C., W., Deierling, and Barth, M. C.: Estimation of total lightning from various storm parameters: A cloud-resolving model study, J. Geophys. Res., 115, D24202, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD014405, 2010.
Betz, H. D., Schmidt, K., Laroche, P., Blanchet, P., Oettinger, W. P., Defer, E., Dziewit, Z., and Konarski, J.: LINET – An in- ternational lightning detection network in Europe, Atmos. Res., 91, 564–573, 2009.
Bright, D. R., Wandishin, M. S., Jewell, R. E., and Weiss, S. J.: A physically based parameter for lightning prediction and its calibration in ensemble forecasts. Preprints, 22nd Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Hyannis, MA, Am. Meteor. Soc., 4.3, available at: http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/84173.pdf, 2004.
Buzzi, A. and Tibaldi, S.: Cyclogenesis on the lee of the Alps: A case study, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 104, 271–287, 1978.
Cecil, D. J., Goodman, S. J, Boccippio, D. J., Zipser, E. J., and Nesbitt, S. W.: Three years of TRMM precipitation features. Part I: Radar, radiometric, and lightning characteristics, Mon. Weather Rev., 133, 543-566, 2005.
Chen, C. and Cotton, W. R.: A One-Dimensional Simulation of the Stratocumulus-Capped Mixed Layer, Bound. Layer Meteorol., 25, 289–321, 1983.
Cotton, W. R., Pielke, R. A. Sr., Walko, R. L., Liston, G. E., Tremback, C. J., Jiang, H., McAnelly, R. L., Harrington, J. Y., Nicholls, M. E. , Carrio, C. G., and McFadden, J. P.: Current status and future directions, Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 82, 5–29, 2003.
Curran, E. B., Holle, R. L., and Lopez, R. E.: Lightning casualties and damages in the United States from 1959 to 1994, J. Climate, 13, 3448–3464, 2000.
Dahl, J. M. L., Holler, H., Schumann, U.: Modeling the flash rate of thunderstorms. Part I: Framework, Mon. Weather Rev., 139, 3093–3111, 2011a.
Dahl, J. M. L., Holler, H., and Schumann, U.: Modeling the flash rate of thunderstorms. Part II: Implementation, Mon. Weather Rev., 139, 3112–3124, 2011b.
Defer, E., Lagouvardos, K., and Kotroni, V.: Lightning activity in the eastern Mediterranean region, J. Geophys. Res., 110, D24210, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JD005710, 2005.
Deierling, W. and Petersen, W. A.: Total lightning activity as an indicator of updraft characteristics, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D16210, 10.1029/2007JD009598, 2008a.
Deierling, W., Petersen, W. A., Latham, J., Ellis, S., and Christian, H.: The relationship between lightning activity and ice fluxes in thunderstorms, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D15210, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD009700, 2008b.
Dudhia, J.: A non-hydrostatic version of the Penn State/NCAR mesoscale model: validation tests and simulation of an Atlantic cyclone and cold front, Mon. Weather Rev., 121, 1493–1513, 1993.
Federico, S., Avolio, E., Petracca, M., Panegrossi, G., Sanò, P., Casella, D., and Dietrich, S.: Simulating lightning into the RAMS model: implementation and preliminary results, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 2, 3351–3395, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-2-3351-2014, 2014.
Federico, S.: Verification of surface minimum, mean, and maximum temperature forecasts in Calabria for summer 2008, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 487–500, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-487-2011, 2011.
Federico, S., Bellecci, C., and Walko, R. L.: A LEPS approach to the predictability of intense rain storms in the Central Mediterranean Basin, Adv. Geosci., 16, 85–95, 2008.
Fierro, A. O., Gao, J., Ziegler, C. L., Mansell, E. R., Macgorman, D. R., and Dembek, S. R.: Evaluation of a cloud scale lightning data assimilation technique and a 3DVAR method for the analysis and short-term forecast of the 29 June 2012 derecho event, Mon. Weather Rev., 142, 183–202, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00142.1, 2014.
Formenton, M., Panegrossi, G., Casella, D., Dietrich, S., Mugnai, A., Sanò, P., Di Paola, F., Betz, H.-D., Price, C., and Yair, Y.: Using a cloud electrification model to study relationships between lightning activity and cloud microphysical structure, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1085–1104, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1085-2013, 2013.
Goodman, S. J., Buechler D., and McCaul E.: "Lightning," chapter in "Our Changing Planet: The View from Space," edited by: King, M., Parkinson, C., Partington, K., and Williams, R., Cambridge University Press, 44–52, 2007.
Grewe, V.: Impact of lightning on air chemistry and climate. Lightning: Principles, Instruments and Applications, edited by: Betz, H.-D., Schumann, U., and Laroche, P., Springer, 537–549, 2009.
Gungle, B. and Krider, E. P.: Cloud-to-ground lightning and surface rainfall in warm-season Florida thunderstorms, J. Geophys. Res., 111, D19203, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006802, 2006.
Heymsfield, A. and Kajikawa, M.: An improved approach to calculating terminal velocities of plate-like crystals and graupel, J. Atmos. Sci., 44, 1088–1099, 1987.
Hoshen, J. and Kopelman, R.: Percolation and cluster distribution. I. Cluster multiple labeling technique and critical concentration algorithm, Phys. Rev., 14B, 3438–3445, 1976.
Katsanos, D., Lagouvardos, K., Kotroni, V., and Argiriou, A.: Combined analysis of rainfall and lightning data produced by mesoscale systems in the central and eastern Mediterranean, Atmos. Res., 83, 55–63, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2006.01.012, 2007a.
Katsanos, D., Lagouvardos, K., Kotroni, V., and Argiriou, A.: Relationship of lightning activity with microwave brightness temperatures and spaceborne radar reflectivity profiles in the central and eastern Mediterranean, J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol., 46, 1901–1912, 2007b.
Kuo, H. L.: Further Studies of the Parameterization of the Influence of Cumulus Convection on Large-Scale Flow, J. Atmos. Sci., 31, 1232–1240, 1974.
Land, T. L. and Rutledge, S. A.: Relationships between convective storm kinematics, precipitation, and lightning, Mon. Weather Rev., 130, 2492–2506, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2002)130<2492:RBCSKP>2.0.CO;2, 2002.
Latham, J., Blyth, A. M., Christian, H. J. Jr., Deierling, W., and Gadian, A. M.: Determination of precipitation rates and yields from lightning measurements, J. Hydrol., 288, 13–19, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2003.11.009, 2003.
Lynn, B., Yair, Y., Price, C., Kelman, G., and Clark, A. J.: Predicting Cloud-to-Ground and Intracloud Lightning in Weather Forecast Models, Weather Forecast., 27, 1470–1488, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-11-00144.1, 2012.
Lagouvardos, K., Kotroni,, V., Defer, E., and Bousquet, O.: Study of a heavy precipitation event over southern France, in the frame of HYMEX project: Observational analysis and model results using assimilation of lightning, Atmos. Res., 134, 45–55, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2013.07.003, 2013.
MacGorman, D. R. and Rust, W. D.: The electrical nature of storms, Oxford University Press, USA, 1998.
MacGorman, D., Straka, J., and Ziegler, C.: A lightning parameterization for numerical cloud models, J. Appl. Meteor., 40, 459–478, 2001.
Mansell, E. R., MacGorman, D., Ziegler, C. L., and Straka, J. M.: Simulated three-dimensional branched lightning in a numerical thunderstorm model, J. Geophys. Res., 107, ACL 2-1–ACL 2-12, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000JD000244, 2002.
Mansell, E. R., MacGorman, D., Ziegler, C., Straka, J. M.: Charge structure and lightning sensitivity in a simulated multicell thunderstorm, J. Geophys. Res., 110, D12101, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JD005287, 2005.
McCaul Jr., E., Goodman, S. J., LaCasse, K. M., and Cecil, D. J.: Forecasting lightning threat using cloud-resolving model simulations, Weather Forecast., 24, 709–729, 2009.
Molinari, J. and Corsetti, T.: Incorporation of cloud-scale and mesoscale down-drafts into a cumulus parametrization: results of one and three-dimensional integration, Mon. Weather Rev., 113, 485–501, 1985.
O&SI SAF: High Latitude SST product manual, version 1.2, 10/10/2002 Met.no, Oslo (Norway), available at: http://www.osi-saf.org (last access: October 2014), 2006.
Petersen, W. A, Christian, H. J., and Rutledge, S. A.: TRMM observations of the global relationship between ice water content and lightning, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L14819, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL023236, 2005.
Pielke, R. A.: Mesoscale Meteorological Modeling, Academic Press, San Diego, 676 pp., 2002.
Porcu, F. and Carrassi, A.: Toward an estimation of the relationship between cyclonic structures and damages at the ground in Europe, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 823–829, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-9-823-2009, 2009.
Price, C. and Rind, D.: A simple lightning parameterization for calculating global lightning distributions, J. Geophys. Res., 97, 9919–9933, 1992.
Price, C. and Federmesser, B.: Lightning-rainfall in Mediterranean winter thunderstorms, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L07813, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL024794, 2006.
Price, C., Yair, Y., Mugnai, A., Lagouvardos, K., Llasat, M. C., Michaelides, S., Dayan, U., Dietrich, S., Di Paola, F., Galanti, E., Garrote, L., Harats, N., Katsanos, D., Kohn, M., Kotroni, V. , Llasat-Botija, M., Lynn, B., Mediero, L., Morin, E., Nicolaides, K., Rozalis., S., Savvidou, K., and Ziv, B.: Using lightning data to better understand and predict flash floods in the Mediterranean, Surv. Geophys., 32, 733–751, 2011.
Qie, X., Zhu, R., Yuan, T., Wu, X., Li, W., and Liu, D.: Application of total-lightning data assimilation in a mesoscale convective system based on the WRF model, Atmos. Res., 145–146, 255–266, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2014.04.012, 2013.
Rust, W., MacGorman, D., Bruning, E., Weiss, S., Krehbiel, P., Thomas, R., Rison, W., Hamlin, T., and Harlin, J.: Inverted-polarity electrical structures in thunderstorms in the severe thunderstorm electrification and precipitation study (steps), Atmos. Res., 76, 247–271, 2005.
Saunders, C. P. R.: Charge separation mechanisms in clouds, Space Sci. Rev., 137, 335–353, 2008.
Smagorinsky, J.: General circulation experiments with the primitive equations. Part I, The basic experiment, Mon. Weather Rev., 91, 99–164, 1963.
Solomon, R. and Baker, M.: A one-dimensional lightning parameterization, J. Geophys. Res., 101, 14983–14990, https://doi.org/10.1029/96JD00941, 1996.
Solomon, R., Medaglia, C. M., Adamo, C., Dietrich, S., Mugnai, A., and Biader Ceipidor, U.: An explicit microphysics thunderstorm model, Int. J. Model. Simul., 25, 112–118, 2005.
Soula, S., Sauvageot, H., Molinie, G., Mesnard, F., and Chauzy S.: The CG lightning activity of a storm causing a flash-flood, Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 1181–1184, https://doi.org/10.1029/98GL00517, 1998.
Stauffer, D. and Aharony, A.: Introduction to percolation theory, Taylor and Francis, London, 181 pp., 1994.
Stolzenburg, M., Marshall, T. C., Rust, W. D., and Smull, B. F.: Horizontal Distribution of Electrical and Meteorological Conditions across the Stratiform Region of a Mesoscale Convective System, Mon. Weather Rev., 122, 1777–1797, 1994.
Stolzenburg, M., Rust, W. D., and Marshall, T. C.: Electrical structure in thunderstorm convective regions: 3. synthesis, J. Geophys. Res., 103, 14097–14108, 1998.
Sturtevant, J. S.: The severe local storm forecasting primes, 197 pp., Weather Scratch Meteorolo, Serv., Florence, Ala, 1995.
Tapia, A., Smith, J. A., and Dixon, M.: Estimation of convective rainfall from lightning observations, J. Appl. Meteorol., 37, 1497–1509, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1998)037<1497:EOCRFL>2.0.CO;2, 1998.
Walko, R. L., Cotton, W. R., Meyers, M. P., and Harrington, J. Y.: New RAMS cloud microphysics parameterization part I: the single-moment scheme, Atmos. Res., 38, 29–62, 1995.
Walko, R. L., Band, L. E., Baron, J., Kittel, T. G., Lammers, R., Lee, T. J., Ojima, D., Pielke, R. A. Sr., Taylor, C., Tague, C., Tremback, C. J., and Vidale, P. L.: Coupled Atmosphere-Biosphere-Hydrology Models for environmental prediction, J. Appl. Meteorol., 39, 931–944, 2000.
Wilks, D. S.: Statistical methods in the atmospheric sciences, 2nd Ed., Academic Press, San Diego, 649 pp., 2006.
Wong, J., Barth, M. C., and Noone, D.: Evaluating a lightning parameterization based on cloud-top height for mesoscale numerical model simulations, Geosci. Model Dev., 6, 429–443, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-6-429-2013, 2013.
Yoshida, S., Morimoto, T., Ushio, T., and Kawasaki, Z.: A fifth- power relationship for lightning activity from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite observations, J. Geophys. Res., 114, D09104, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010370, 2009.
Yair, Y., Lynn, B., Price, C., Kotroni, V., Lagouvardos, K., Morin, E., Mugnai, A., and Llasat, M. C.: Predicting lightning density in Mediterranean storms based on the WRF model dynamic and microphysical fields, J. Geophys. Res., 115, D04205, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010868, 2010.
Yair, Y., Shalev, S., Erlich, Z., Agrachov, A., Katz, E., Saaroni, H., Price, C., and Ziv, B.: Lightning flash multiplicity in eastern Mediterranean thunderstorms, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 165–173, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-165-2014, 2014.
Zhou, Y., Qie, X., and Soula, S.: A study of the relationship between cloud-to-ground lightning and precipitation in the convective weather system in China, Ann. Geophys., 20, 107–113, https://doi.org/10.5194/angeo-20-107-2002, 2002.
Short summary
This paper shows the implementation of a simple model for simulating lightning into the RAMS model.
The methodology is applied to six case studies that occurred in central Italy and the results are verified against LINET observations.
Advantages and weaknesses of the methodology are discussed.
This paper shows the implementation of a simple model for simulating lightning into the RAMS...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint