Concept of dealing with uncertainty in radar-based data for hydrological purpose

Abstract. Precipitation radar-based data constitute essential input to Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and rainfall-runoff models, however the data introduce a number of errors. Thus their uncertainty should be determined to provide end-users with more reliable information about forecasts. The common idea is to use Quality Index (QI) scheme for some number of quality parameters on the assumption that: (1) relationship between the parameters and relevant quality indexes is linear; (2) averaged QI is a weighted average of all particular indexes. The uncertainty parameters can be topography-dependent, resulting from spatial and temporal distribution of data, etc. Uncertainty in radar-based data is described by gamma PDF of precipitation, and it is proposed to determine the probability density function (PDF) parameters basing on QI values. Practically, precipitation is presented as ensemble of quantiles of the PDF and such an ensemble can constitute input to rainfall-runoff modelling. Since the ensemble is a precipitation input, the hydrological model needs to be activated according to a number of input members.