Articles | Volume 26, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-827-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-827-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
19 Feb 2026
Research article |
| 19 Feb 2026
| 19 Feb 2026
Using seasonal forecasts to enhance our understanding of extreme wind and precipitation impacts from extratropical cyclones
Jacob W. Maddison
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
Jennifer L. Catto
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
Sandra Hansen
Guy Carpenter & Company Limited, London, UK
Ching Ho Justin Ng
Guy Carpenter & Company Limited, London, UK
Stefan Siegert
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
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Short summary
Strong winds and heavy precipitation in extratropical cyclones can cause significant damage, and also considerable losses. Here, we estimate the worst case scenarios in terms of impacts that could occur in todays climate resulting from wind and precipitation in extratropical cyclones. We find impacts roughly 1.5 times more severe than any in the historical record for 14 countries considered in Northwestern/Central Europe. These damages would incur costs into the billions of pounds for insurers.
Strong winds and heavy precipitation in extratropical cyclones can cause significant damage, and...
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