Emergence of climate change signal in CMIP6 extreme indices

Schuhen, Nina; Iles, Carley E.; Sandstad, Marit; Ananiev, Viktor; Sillmann, Jana

doi:10.5194/nhess-26-753-2026

Articles | Volume 26, issue 2

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-753-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-753-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 26, issue 2

Research article

|

10 Feb 2026

Research article |

| 10 Feb 2026

Emergence of climate change signal in CMIP6 extreme indices

Nina Schuhen, Carley E. Iles, Marit Sandstad, Viktor Ananiev, and Jana Sillmann

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-753-2026-supplement

Data sets

Climate extreme indices and heat stress indicators derived from CMIP6 global climate projections M. Sandstad et al. https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.776e08bd

Model code and software

Codebase for Schuhen et al., 2026: Emergence of climate change signal in CMIP6 extreme indices N. Schuhen https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18485219

ESMValTool B. Andela, B. Brotz, L. de Mora, et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6359405

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Short summary

As climate changes, extremes are becoming increasingly frequent. We investigate the time of emergence for a large range of different extremes, meaning the earliest time when a significant change in these extremes can be detected beyond natural variability, whether in the past or in the future. The results are based on 21 global climate models and show considerable differences between regions, types of indices and emissions scenarios, as well as between temperature and precipitation extremes.