Articles | Volume 26, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-5711-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-5711-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Reservoir-induced seismicity in China: Systematic characterization and implications for hazard assessment
Jiashan Zhang
Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, No. 5 South Minzu University Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100081, China
Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, No. 5 South Minzu University Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100081, China
Beijing Baijiatuan Earth Sciences National Observation and Research Station, Beijing 100095, China
Key Laboratory of Earthquake Source Physics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100081, China
Fengling Yin
Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, No. 5 South Minzu University Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100081, China
Beijing Baijiatuan Earth Sciences National Observation and Research Station, Beijing 100095, China
Key Laboratory of Earthquake Source Physics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100081, China
Yiming Zhu
Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, No. 5 South Minzu University Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100081, China
Hongyu Zhai
Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, No. 5 South Minzu University Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100081, China
Key Laboratory of Earthquake Source Physics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100081, China
Jinmeng Bi
Tianjin Earthquake Agency, No. 19 Youyi Road, Hexi District, Tianjin 300201, China
Yan Zhang
Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, No. 5 South Minzu University Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100081, China
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Short summary
Short summary
Aftershocks are typically ignored for traditional probabilistic seismic hazard analyses, which underestimate the seismic hazard to some extent and may cause potential risks. A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis based on the Monte Carlo method was combined with the Omi–Reasenberg–Jones model to systematically study how aftershocks impact seismic hazard analyses. The influence of aftershocks on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis can exceed 50 %.
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Short summary
Large reservoirs can sometimes trigger earthquakes. We combined a national reservoir map with 50 years of records to examine 1,435 Chinese reservoirs and identify 88 likely linked to filling. 95% of the resulting earthquakes struck within 25 km of the shore, with activity peaking a year or two after filling, mainly in geologically active regions. Reservoirs over 320 million cubic metres, or 16 km long, are far more prone, and the current 10 km assessment zone should be widened to 30-40 km.
Large reservoirs can sometimes trigger earthquakes. We combined a national reservoir map with 50...
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