Articles | Volume 26, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-5201-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-5201-2026
Research article
 | Highlight paper
 | 
23 Oct 2026
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 23 Oct 2026

Flood exposure and structure damage under deterministic design-storm and stochastic storm transposition rainfall scenarios: a case study in South Louisiana, USA

Mohamed ElSaadani, Emad Habib, and Mohamed M. Morsy

Cited articles

Amorim, R., Villarini, G., Kim, H., Jane, R. A., and Wahl, T.: A practitioner's approach to process-driven modeling of compound rainfall and storm surge extremes for coastal Texas, J. Hydrol. Eng., 30, 04025025, https://doi.org/10.1061/JHYEFF.HEENG-6482, 2025. 
Apel, H., Thieken, A. H., Merz, B., and Blöschl, G.: Flood risk assessment and associated uncertainty, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 4, 295–308, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-4-295-2004, 2004. 
Apel, H., Merz, B., and Thieken, A. H.: Quantification of uncertainties in flood risk assessments, Int. J. River Basin Manag., 6, 149–162, https://doi.org/10.1080/15715124.2008.9635344, 2008. 
Awaad, M. S., Habib, E. H., and Saad, H. A.: Effect of managing tributary flows on flood risk in transitional low-gradient river systems, J. Flood Risk Manag., 18, e70094, https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.70094, 2025. 
Baer, J. A., Sebastian, A., Grimley, L. E., Doss-Gollin, J., Wright, D. B., Hussain, M. A., and Webber, M. K.: Neglecting spatiotemporal rainfall variability misrepresents flood hazard and risk, npj Nat. Hazards, https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-026-00208-5, 2026. 
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Editorial statement
The paper makes an important methodological contribution by demonstrating that conventional spatially uniform design storms can substantially underestimate localized flood exposure and structural damage, whereas stochastic storm transposition (SST) captures the spatial organization and variability of real storms and reveals previously overlooked risks. The paper can be considered a highlight paper because it provides compelling evidence that representing spatial rainfall variability can fundamentally alter flood-risk estimates, with direct implications for floodplain management, infrastructure design, and climate-resilient planning.
Short summary
Conventional design storms may underestimate flood exposure by neglecting the spatial organization of rainfall. We compare deterministic and stochastic storm scenarios in coastal Louisiana. Stochastic storm transposition reveals 11 518 buildings overlooked by the deterministic storm, demonstrating that spatial rainfall variability can fundamentally alter estimates of exposure and structural damage, with implications for floodplain management, infrastructure design and climate-resilient planning.
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