Articles | Volume 26, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4663-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4663-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
01 Oct 2026
Research article |
| 01 Oct 2026
| 01 Oct 2026
Anthropogenic aerosol forcing of European windstorms in CMIP6 climate models
Stephen Cusack
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Stormwise Ltd, Luton, LU4 9DU, UK
Related authors
Stephen Cusack and Tyler Cox
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2963–2972, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2963-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2963-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Mediterranean Sea has been warming rapidly since 1980, and its basic thermodynamic effect acts to boost hail in the higher-risk parts of Europe. Climate model experiments indicate the Mediterranean warming is mainly caused by rising greenhouse gases, with reduced anthropogenic aerosols contributing too. A review of research and data revealed hail losses rising at around 2 % per year over the same period. Moreover, the trajectory of anthropogenic forcings suggests hail risk will keep rising.
Stephen Cusack
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2841–2856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2841-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2841-2023, 2023
Short summary
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The link from European windstorm research findings to insurance applications is strengthened by a new storm loss history spanning 1950 to 2022. It is based on ERA5 winds, together with long-term trends from observed gusts for improved validation. Correlations between losses and climate indices are around 0.4 for interannual variations, rising to 0.7 for decadal variations. A significant divergence between standard climate indices and storm losses over the past 20 years needs further research.
Stephen Cusack and Tyler Cox
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2963–2972, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2963-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2963-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The Mediterranean Sea has been warming rapidly since 1980, and its basic thermodynamic effect acts to boost hail in the higher-risk parts of Europe. Climate model experiments indicate the Mediterranean warming is mainly caused by rising greenhouse gases, with reduced anthropogenic aerosols contributing too. A review of research and data revealed hail losses rising at around 2 % per year over the same period. Moreover, the trajectory of anthropogenic forcings suggests hail risk will keep rising.
Stephen Cusack
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2841–2856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2841-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2841-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The link from European windstorm research findings to insurance applications is strengthened by a new storm loss history spanning 1950 to 2022. It is based on ERA5 winds, together with long-term trends from observed gusts for improved validation. Correlations between losses and climate indices are around 0.4 for interannual variations, rising to 0.7 for decadal variations. A significant divergence between standard climate indices and storm losses over the past 20 years needs further research.
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Short summary
European windstorm damages varied by a factor three over recent multidecadal periods, and a better understanding of these changes could improve how this risk is managed. Here, we explored the impacts of anthropogenic aerosols (AA) using results from climate model experiments, and found AA boosted European wind losses by an average of 45 % in the late 20th century, though varying from zero to 100 % between the six models. Validation data suggest the signal may be at the higher end of this range.
European windstorm damages varied by a factor three over recent multidecadal periods, and a...
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