Articles | Volume 26, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3667-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3667-2026
Research article
 | 
07 Aug 2026
Research article |  | 07 Aug 2026

Drivers of flash flood frequency and intensity in the United States: a quantitative analysis of hydrometeorological interactions

Ying Hu, Huan Wu, Yiwen Mei, Zhijun Huang, Aihui Wang, Chaoqun Li, and Bing Sui

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Cited articles

Ahmadalipour, A. and Moradkhani, H.: A data-driven analysis of flash flood hazard, fatalities, and damages over the CONUS during 1996-2017, J. Hydrol., 578, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.124106, 2019. 
Allan, R. P. and Soden, B. J.: Atmospheric warming and the amplification of precipitation extremes, Science, 321, 1481–1484, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1160787, 2008. 
Anderson, B. J., Slater, L. J., Dadson, S. J., Blum, A. G., and Prosdocimi, I.: Statistical Attribution of the Influence of Urban and Tree Cover Change on Streamflow: A Comparison of Large Sample Statistical Approaches, Water Resour. Res., 58, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021wr030742, 2022. 
Archfield, S. A., Hirsch, R. M., Viglione, A., and Bloeschl, G.: Fragmented patterns of flood change across the United States, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 10232–10239, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016gl070590, 2016. 
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Our analysis of United States river data explains why more heavy rain has not led to more flash floods. Only 17.3 % of basins see more frequent events, and 6.5 % see sharper, more intense flash floods. A key finding is that the warming climate counteracts rainfall's impact, reducing potential increases in flood frequency by 3.6 % and intensity by 8.0 % since the 1980s. While national land cover has remained stable, local urbanization remains a crucial factor driving flood risk.
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