Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 26, issue 8
Articles | Volume 26, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3637-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3637-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 26, issue 8
Research article
 | 
06 Aug 2026
Research article |  | 06 Aug 2026

Dynamic spatial modelling of mass movement impacts for large areas: a data-driven framework for impact-based early warning

Stefan Steger, Raphael Spiekermann, Mateo Moreno, Sebastian Lehner, Katharina Enigl, Alice Crespi, and Matthias Schlögl

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Short summary
We developed three space-time models to predict the daily impact potential of mass movements on infrastructure in the Alps, distinguishing slides, flows, and falls. The basin-scale approach accounts for potential process paths and integrates meteorological, geo-environmental, and exposure information. Results indicate suitability for impact-based warning. We discuss the broad applicability of the modelling framework to other impacts and beyond the warning context.
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