Articles | Volume 26, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3469-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3469-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
A fault-based application to model seismicity rates for seismic hazard assessment in the southern Apennines (Italy)
Giulia Alessandrini
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Sezione di Bologna, Bologna, 40127, Italy
Octavi Gómez-Novell
Departament de Dinàmica de la Terra i l'Oceà, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, 08028, Spain
Silvia Castellaro
Department of Physics and Astronomy, Alma Mater Studiorum Università di Bologna, Bologna, 40127, Italy
Michela Giustiniani
Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale (OGS), Borgo Grotta Gigante, Sgonico, 34010, Italy
Umberta Tinivella
Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale (OGS), Borgo Grotta Gigante, Sgonico, 34010, Italy
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Octavi Gómez-Novell, Francesco Visini, Paula Herrero-Barbero, José A. Álvarez-Gómez, and Julián García-Mayordomo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2691–2715, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2691-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2691-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Evaluating seismic hazard requires past earthquake observations to perform accurate forecasts. Physics-based earthquake cycle simulators are algorithms that model long-term earthquake sequences on faults, overcoming completeness limitations of observations. We test the performance of physics-based seismic hazard assessments in comparison with traditional approaches in Spain. The physics-based approach yields more accurate forecasts, highlighting the potential of simulators for seismic hazard.
Octavi Gómez-Novell, Francesco Visini, José Antonio Álvarez-Gómez, Bruno Pace, and Julián García-Mayordomo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 651–673, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-651-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-651-2026, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Earthquake surface ruptures are a hazard for infrastructure and life that requires proper assessment. We use a physics-based earthquake cycle simulator to derive fault displacement hazard statistics in a test fault system and their dependence to fault geometry. Our results show that more complex fault geometries increase surface rupture probabilities and might improve the agreement with observations. Earthquake cycle simulators are thus a promising tool for fault displacement hazard analyses.
Octavi Gómez-Novell, Bruno Pace, Francesco Visini, Joanna Faure Walker, and Oona Scotti
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 7339–7355, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7339-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-7339-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Knowing the rate at which earthquakes happen along active faults is crucial to characterize the hazard that they pose. We present an approach (Paleoseismic EArthquake CHronologies, PEACH) to correlate and compute seismic histories using paleoseismic data, a type of data that characterizes past seismic activity from the geological record. Our approach reduces the uncertainties of the seismic histories and overall can improve the knowledge on fault rupture behavior for the seismic hazard.
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Short summary
We model fault-based seismicity rates by converting the slip rates of active faults into earthquake occurrence, considering both individual-fault ruptures and ruptures involving multiple adjacent faults. Our results show that multi-fault rupture scenarios better reproduce earthquake catalogues and paleoseismic observations, highlighting the importance of incorporating rupture complexity into future seismic hazard models.
We model fault-based seismicity rates by converting the slip rates of active faults into...
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