Articles | Volume 26, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3129-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3129-2026
Research article
 | 
07 Jul 2026
Research article |  | 07 Jul 2026

Evaluation of AI-based seasonal weather ensembles as input for fluvial flood risk estimation: a case study over the Elbe basin

John Ashcroft, Alison Poulston, Marius Koch, Georg Ertl, Kirsty Brown, James Butler, Anthony Hammond, Owen Jordan, Sarah Warren, Rob Lamb, Paul J. Young, and David Wood

Related authors

Towards global sensitivity analysis of large-scale flood loss models
Francesca Pianosi, Georgios Sarailidis, Kirsty Styles, Philip Oldham, Stephen Hutchings, Rob Lamb, and Thorsten Wagener
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1727–1743, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1727-2026,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1727-2026, 2026
Short summary
Opinion: The role of AerChemMIP in advancing climate and air quality research
Paul T. Griffiths, Laura J. Wilcox, Robert J. Allen, Vaishali Naik, Fiona M. O'Connor, Michael Prather, Alex Archibald, Florence Brown, Makoto Deushi, William Collins, Stephanie Fiedler, Naga Oshima, Lee T. Murray, Bjørn H. Samset, Chris Smith, Steven Turnock, Duncan Watson-Parris, and Paul J. Young
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 25, 8289–8328, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8289-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-8289-2025, 2025
Short summary
A machine learning approach to downscale EMEP4UK: analysis of UK ozone variability and trends
Lily Gouldsbrough, Ryan Hossaini, Emma Eastoe, Paul J. Young, and Massimo Vieno
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 3163–3196, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3163-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-3163-2024, 2024
Short summary
Invited perspectives: Challenges and future directions in improving bridge flood resilience
Enrico Tubaldi, Christopher J. White, Edoardo Patelli, Stergios Aristoteles Mitoulis, Gustavo de Almeida, Jim Brown, Michael Cranston, Martin Hardman, Eftychia Koursari, Rob Lamb, Hazel McDonald, Richard Mathews, Richard Newell, Alonso Pizarro, Marta Roca, and Daniele Zonta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 795–812, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-795-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-795-2022, 2022
Short summary

Cited articles

Alexandre, D. A., Chaudhuri, C., and Gill-Fortin, J.: Novel extensions to the Fisher copula to model flood spatial dependence over North America, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 5069–5085, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-5069-2024, 2024. 
Allaire, M.: Socio-economic impacts of flooding: A review of the empirical literature, Water Secur., 3, 18–26, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wasec.2018.09.002, 2018. 
Arino, O., Ramos Perez, J. J., Kalogirou, V., Bontemps, S., Defourny, P., and Van Bogaert, E.: Global Land Cover Map for 2009 (GlobCover 2009), European Space Agency (ESA) & Université catholique de Louvain (UCL), PANGAEA [data set], https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.787668, 2012. 
Ben Bouallègue, Z., Clare, M. C. A., Magnusson, L., Gascón, E., Maier-Gerber, M., Janoušek, M., Rodwell, M., Pinault, F., Dramsch, J. S., Lang, S. T. K., Raoult, B., Rabier, F., Chevallier, M., Sandu, I., Dueben, P., Chantry, M., and Pappenberger, F.: The Rise of Data-Driven Weather Forecasting: A First Statistical Assessment of Machine Learning–Based Weather Forecasts in an Operational-Like Context, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 105, E864–E883, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-23-0162.1, 2024. 
Bonev, B., Kurth, T., Hundt, C., Pathak, J., Baust, M., Kashinath, K., and Anandkumar, A.: Spherical Fourier Neural Operators: Learning Stable Dynamics on the Sphere, Proc. 40th Int. Conf. Mach. Learn., 202, 2806–2823, 2023. 
Download
Short summary
Floods cause major social and economic losses, but estimating risk is difficult because extreme events are rare. We used artificial intelligence to generate over a thousand realistic winter weather seasons and river flows for the Elbe basin. The approach reproduced observed patterns and produced a wider range of extreme storms, showing that artificial intelligence can expand plausible flood scenarios for improved risk assessment.
Share
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint