Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 26, issue 7
Articles | Volume 26, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3129-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3129-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 26, issue 7
Research article
 | 
07 Jul 2026
Research article |  | 07 Jul 2026

Evaluation of AI-based seasonal weather ensembles as input for fluvial flood risk estimation: a case study over the Elbe basin

John Ashcroft, Alison Poulston, Marius Koch, Georg Ertl, Kirsty Brown, James Butler, Anthony Hammond, Owen Jordan, Sarah Warren, Rob Lamb, Paul J. Young, and David Wood

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Short summary
Floods cause major social and economic losses, but estimating risk is difficult because extreme events are rare. We used artificial intelligence to generate over a thousand realistic winter weather seasons and river flows for the Elbe basin. The approach reproduced observed patterns and produced a wider range of extreme storms, showing that artificial intelligence can expand plausible flood scenarios for improved risk assessment.
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