Articles | Volume 26, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3085-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3085-2026
Research article
 | 
03 Jul 2026
Research article |  | 03 Jul 2026

Enhancing long-term reservoir inflow forecasting: an integrated approach combining switch prediction method, ensemble rainfall forecasts, and machine learning techniques

Hsuan-Yu Lin, Jhih-Huang Wang, and Ming-Jui Chang

Cited articles

Guo, W.-D., Chen, W.-B., and Chang, C.-H.: Prediction of hourly inflow for reservoirs at mountain catchments using residual error data and multiple-ahead correction technique, Hydrol. Res., 54, 1072–1093, https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2023.072, 2023. 
He, S., Raghavan, S. V., Nguyen, N. S., and Liong, S.-Y.: Ensemble rainfall forecasting with numerical weather prediction and radar-based nowcasting models, Hydrol. Process., 27, 1560–1571, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9254, 2013. 
Hsiao, L.-F., Yang, M.-J., Lee, C.-S., Kuo, H.-C., Shih, D.-S., Tsai, C.-C., Wang, C.-J., Chang, L.-Y., Chen, D. Y.-C., Feng, L., Hong, J.-S., Fong, C.-T., Chen, D.-S., Yeh, T.-C., Huang, C.-Y., Guo, W.-D., and Lin, G.-F.: Ensemble forecasting of typhoon rainfall and floods over a mountainous watershed in Taiwan, J. Hydrol., 506, 55–68, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.08.046, 2013. 
Hu, Y., Yan, L., Hang, T., and Feng, J.: Stream-Flow Forecasting of Small Rivers Based on LSTM, arXiv [preprint], https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2001.05681, 16 January 2020. 
Huang, C.-C., Chang, M.-J., Lin, G.-F., Wu, M.-C., and Wang, P.-H.: Real-time forecasting of suspended sediment concentrations in reservoirs by the optimal integration of multiple machine learning techniques, J. Hydrol.: Regional Studies, 34, 100804, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2021.100804, 2021. 
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Short summary
Reservoir operators need reliable forecasts during typhoons to reduce flood risks and secure water supplies. In this study, we developed a method that combines multiple weather forecasts with computer models trained on past rainfall and reservoir inflow records. The approach improved inflow forecasts up to three days ahead, helping reservoir managers make earlier decisions, improve flood control, and better prepare for future extreme weather.
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