Articles | Volume 26, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3045-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-3045-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
The long-term hazard cascade of an unprecedented wildfire in a tropical mountain ecosystem
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2BB, UK
CatchmentAI Limited, Andover, UK
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2BB, UK
Anthony C. Ross
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2BB, UK
Yazidhi Bamutaze
Department of Geography, Geo-Informatics and Climatic Sciences, Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda
Jiayuan Han
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2BB, UK
Douglas Mulangwa
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, RG6 6BB, UK
Ministry of Water and Environment, Kampala, Uganda
Andrew Mwesigwa
Ministry of Water and Environment, Kampala, Uganda
Emmanuel Ntale
Uganda Red Cross Society, Kampala, Uganda
Callist Tindimugaya
Ministry of Water and Environment, Kampala, Uganda
Brian Guma
Ministry of Water and Environment, Kampala, Uganda
Elisabeth Stephens
Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, RG6 6BB, UK
Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, The Hague, the Netherlands
Wouter Buytaert
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2BB, UK
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We examine whether several climate indices alter the magnitude, timing and duration of floods in the Amazon. We find significant changes in both flood magnitude and duration, particularly in the north-eastern Amazon for negative SST years in the central Pacific Ocean. This response is not repeated when the negative anomaly is positioned further east. These results have important implications for both social and physical sectors working towards the improvement of flood early warning systems.
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Short summary
Climate change is driving wildfires to higher elevations in tropical mountains, exposing ecosystems with little or no fire history. We analyse a 2012 fire in Uganda’s Rwenzori Mountains that burned pristine forest and wetland above 3800 m, where no major fire had occurred for 12,000 years. The fire triggered a long-term cascade of floods, debris flows, landslides, erosion and mine-waste pollution, showing the need for rapid post-fire risk assessment and restoration.
Climate change is driving wildfires to higher elevations in tropical mountains, exposing...
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