Articles | Volume 26, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2841-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2841-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
16 Jun 2026
Research article |
| 16 Jun 2026
| 16 Jun 2026
Psychometric and cultural characterization of relative volcanic risk perception levels of individuals highly exposed to proximal activity from Villarrica volcano, Chile
School of Earth and Environment, Faculty of Science, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand
Luis E. Lara
Instituto de Ciencias de la Tierra, Universidad Austral de Chile, Valdivia, 5090000, Chile
Millennium Institute on Volcanic Risk Research-Ckelar Volcanoes, Antofagasta, 1200000, Chile
Marcelo A. Lagos
Instituto de Geografía, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, 7820436, Chile
Alfredo A. Vives
independent researcher: Concepcion, Chile
Cited articles
Auker, M. R., Sparks, R. S. J., Siebert, L., Crosweller, H. S., and Ewert, J.: A statistical analysis of the global historical volcanic fatalities record, Journal of Applied Volcanology, 2, 1–24, https://doi.org/10.1186/2191-5040-2-2, 2013.
Barberi, F., Davis, M. S., Isaia, R., Nave, R., and Ricci, T.: Volcanic risk perception in the Vesuvius population, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 172, 244–258, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2007.12.011, 2008.
Barclay, J., Haynes, K., Houghton, B., and Johnston, D.: Social processes and volcanic risk reduction, in: The Encyclopedia of Volcanoes, 2nd edn., edited by: Sigurdsson, H., Academic Press, 1203–1214, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-385938-9.00069-9, 2015.
Barclay, J., Few, R., Armijos, M. T., Phillips, J. C., Pyle, D. M., Hicks, A., and Robertson, R. E. A.: Livelihoods, wellbeing and the risk to life during volcanic eruptions, Front. Earth Sci., 7, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2019.00205, 2019.
Bird, D. K., Gisladottir, G., and Dominey-Howes, D.: Volcanic risk and tourism in southern Iceland: Implications for hazard, risk and emergency response education and training, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 189, 33–48, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2009.09.020, 2010.
Bird, D. K., Gísladóttir, G., and Dominey-Howes, D.: Different communities, different perspectives: Issues affecting residents' response to a volcanic eruption in southern Iceland, B. Volcanol., 73, 1209–1227, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-011-0464-1, 2011.
Bonadonna, C., Biass, S., Menoni, S., and Gregg, C. E.: Assessment of risk associated with tephra-related hazards, in: Forecasting and Planning for Volcanic Hazards, Risks, and Disasters, Vol. 2, edited by: Papale, P., Elsevier, 329–378, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-818082-2.00008-1, 2021.
Breskaya, O. and Zrinščak, S.: Annual Review of the Sociology of Religion, Vol. 15, Brill, https://doi.org/10.1163/9789004713802, 2024.
Bronfman, N. C., Cifuentes, L. A., and Gutiérrez, V. V.: Participant-focused analysis: Explanatory power of the classic psychometric paradigm in risk perception, J. Risk Res., 11, 735–753, https://doi.org/10.1080/13669870801967143, 2008.
Brown, S. K., Jenkins, S. F., Sparks, R. S. J., Odbert, H., and Auker, M. R.: Volcanic fatalities database: Analysis of volcanic threat with distance and victim classification, Journal of Applied Volcanology, 6, 15, https://doi.org/10.1186/s13617-017-0067-4, 2017.
Calderon, R. A.: NHESS reproducibility repository for psychometric and cultural characterization of volcanic risk perception at Villarrica volcano, Chile (Version v1.0.1), Zenodo [data set and code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20300064, 2026.
Carlino, S., Somma, R., and Mayberry, G. C.: Volcanic risk perception of young people in the urban areas of Vesuvius: Comparisons with other volcanic areas and implications for emergency management, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 172, 229–243, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2007.12.010, 2008.
Centro de Políticas Públicas UC (CPPUC): Bicentennial Survey 2017, Pontifical Catholic University of Chile, https://encuestabicentenario.uc.cl (last access: 8 June 2026), 2017.
Chester, D. K.: Volcanoes, society, and culture, in: Volcanoes and the Environment, Cambridge University Press, 404–439, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511614767.015, 2005.
Chester, D. K., Duncan, A. M., and Dibben, C. J. L.: The importance of religion in shaping volcanic risk perception in Italy, with special reference to Vesuvius and Etna, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 172, 216–228, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2007.12.009, 2008.
Clarke, P. B.: New Religions in Global Perspective: Religious Change in the Modern World, 1st edn., Routledge, https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203508336, 2004.
Cutter, S. L.: The forgotten casualties redux: Women, children, and disaster risk, Global Environ. Chang., 42, 117–121, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.12.010, 2017.
Davis, M. S. and Ricci, D. T.: Perceptions of risk for volcanic hazards in Italy: A research note, International Journal of Sociology and Social Policy, 24, 159–165, https://doi.org/10.1108/01443330410791091, 2004.
Douglas, M. and Wildavsky, A.: Risk and Culture: An Essay on the Selection of Technological and Environmental Dangers, University of California Press, Berkeley, 224 pp., https://doi.org/10.2307/2130451, 1982.
Douglas, M. and Wildavsky, A.: Risk and Culture: An Essay on the Selection of Technological and Environmental Dangers, University of California Press, Berkeley, 224 pp., https://doi.org/10.2307/2130451, 1982.
Dove, M. R.: Perception of volcanic eruption as agent of change on Merapi volcano, Central Java, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 172, 329–337, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2007.12.037, 2008.
Dzierma, Y. and Wehrmann, H.: Eruption time series statistically examined: Probabilities of future eruptions at Villarrica and Llaima volcanoes, Southern Volcanic Zone, Chile, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 193, 82–92, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2010.03.009, 2010.
Edgar, A. and Sedgwick, P. (Eds.): Key Concepts in Cultural Theory, 1st edn., Routledge, https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203981849, 1999.
Eiser, J. R., Donovan, A., and Sparks, R. S. J.: Risk perceptions and trust following the 2010 and 2011 Icelandic volcanic ash crises, Risk Anal., 35, 332–343, https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12275, 2015.
Espinoza, A. E., Osorio-Parraguez, P., and Posada Quiroga, E.: Preventing mental health risks in volunteers in disaster contexts: The case of the Villarrica volcano eruption, Chile, Int. J. Disast. Risk Re., 34, 154–164, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2018.11.013, 2019.
Espluga, J., Prades, A., Gamero, N., and Solá, R.: El papel de la confianza en los conflictos socioambientales, Política y Sociedad, 46, 255–273, 2009.
Favereau, M., Robledo, L. F., and Bull, M. T.: Analysis of risk assessment factors of individuals in volcanic hazards: Review of the last decade, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 357, 254–260, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2018.05.009, 2018.
Fischhoff, B., Slovic, P., Lichtenstein, S., Read, S., and Combs, B.: How safe is safe enough? A psychometric study of attitudes towards technological risks and benefits, Policy Sci., 9, 127–152, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00143739, 1978.
Gaillard, J. C.: Alternative paradigms of volcanic risk perception: The case of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 172, 315–328, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2007.12.036, 2008.
Gaillard, J. C.: Vulnerability, capacity and resilience: Perspectives for climate and development policy, J. Int. Dev., 22, 218–232, https://doi.org/10.1002/jid.1675, 2010.
Gavilanes-Ruiz, J. C., Cuevas-Muñiz, A., Varley, N., Gwynne, G., Stevenson, J., Saucedo-Girón, R., and Cortés-Cortés, A.: Exploring the factors that influence the perception of risk: The case of Volcán de Colima, Mexico, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 186, 238–252, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2008.12.021, 2009.
Global Volcanism Program (GVP): Villarrica volcano (357120), in: Volcanoes of the World, v. 5.2.6, Smithsonian Institution, https://doi.org/10.5479/si.GVP.VOTW5-2024.5.2, 2025.
Hastangka and Suprapto: Conception and perception of Indigenous people on Merapi volcano eruption: Knowledge, philosophy, and Indigenous education on disaster risk reduction in Indonesia, in: Indigenous Knowledge and Disaster Risk Reduction: Insight Towards Perception, Response, Adaptation and Sustainability, edited by: Panda, G. K., Chatterjee, U., Bandyopadhyay, N., Setiawati, M. D., and Banerjee, D., Springer International Publishing, 35–59, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-26143-5_3, 2023.
Haynes, K., Barclay, J., and Pidgeon, N.: Whose reality counts? Factors affecting the perception of volcanic risk, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 172, 259–272, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2007.12.012, 2008.
Hernández Peña, Y., Vargas Cuervo, G., and Zafra Mejía, C.: Percepciones sobre fenómenos volcánicos: Elementos para la gestión del riesgo en Colombia, Perspectiva Geográfica, 25, 99–119, https://doi.org/10.19053/01233769.9488, 2020.
INE (Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas): Censo 2017, https://www.ine.gob.cl/estadisticas/sociales/censos-de-poblacion-y-vivienda/censo-de-poblacion-y-vivienda (last access: 18 May 2026), 2017.
Jaspal, R., Fino, E., and Breakwell, G. M.: The COVID-19 Own Risk Appraisal Scale (CORAS): Development and validation in two samples from the United Kingdom, J. Health Psychol., 27, 790–804, https://doi.org/10.1177/1359105320967429, 2022.
Johnston, D. M., Bebbington, M. S., Lai, C. D., Houghton, B. F., and Paton, D.: Volcanic hazard perceptions: Comparative shifts in knowledge and risk, Disaster Prev. Manag., 8, 118–126, https://doi.org/10.1108/09653569910266166, 1999.
Jones, E. C., Faas, A. J., Murphy, A. D., Tobin, G. A., Whiteford, L. M., and McCarty, C.: Cross-cultural and site-based influences on demographic, well-being, and social network predictors of risk perception in hazard and disaster settings in Ecuador and Mexico, Hum. Nature, 24, 5–32, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12110-013-9162-3, 2013.
Kokorsch, M. and Gísladóttir, J.: “You talk of threat, but we think of comfort”: the role of place attachment in small remote communities in Iceland that experience avalanche threat, Reg. Environ. Change, 23, 150, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-023-02144-w, 2023.
Lara, L. E. and Clavero, J.: Lara, L. E., and Clavero Ribes, J. E.: Villarrica volcano (39.5° S), Southern Andes, Chile, Servicio Nacional de Geología y Minería (SERNAGEOMIN), available at: https://www.bibliotecadigital.uchile.cl/permalink/56UDC_INST/1r5tlhf/alma991005450079703936 (last access: 19 May 2026), 2004.
Lara, L. E., Orozco, G., Amigo, A., and Silva, C.: Peligros volcánicos de Chile [material cartográfico], Servicio Nacional de Geología y Minería, Carta Geológica de Chile, Serie Geología Ambiental No. 13, Santiago, Chile, https://www.bibliotecanacionaldigital.gob.cl/bnd/631/w3-article-350755.html (last access: 19 May 2026), 2011.
Lara, L. E., Flores, F., Calderón, R., and Cardona, C.: Volcano hazards and risks in Chile, in: Forecasting and Planning for Volcanic Hazards, Risks, and Disasters, Vol. 2, edited by: Papale, P., Elsevier, 617–633, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-818082-2.00017-2, 2021.
López-Vázquez, E.: Risk perception and coping strategies for risk from Popocatépetl volcano, Mexico, Geofis. Int., 48, 133–147, 2009.
Marris, C., Langford, I. H., and O'Riordan, T.: A quantitative test of the cultural theory of risk perceptions: Comparison with the psychometric paradigm, Risk Anal., 18, 635–647, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.1998.tb00376.x, 1998.
Mitsushita, K., Murakoshi, S., and Koyama, M.: How are various natural disasters cognitively represented? A psychometric study of natural disaster risk perception applying three-mode principal component analysis, Nat. Hazards, 116, 977–1000, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05708-x, 2023.
Moreno, H. and Clavero, J.: Geología del volcán Villarrica, Regiones de la Araucanía y de Los Lagos, Servicio Nacional de Geología y Minería, Carta Geológica de Chile, Serie Geología Básica No. 98, Santiago, Chile, 2006.
Niroa, J. J. and Nakamura, N.: Volcanic disaster risk reduction in Indigenous communities on Tanna Island, Vanuatu, Int. J. Disast. Risk Re., 74, 102937, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.102937, 2022.
Njome, M. S., Suh, C. E., Chuyong, G., and de Wit, M. J.: Volcanic risk perception in rural communities along the slopes of Mount Cameroon, West-Central Africa, J. Afr. Earth Sci., 58, 608–622, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jafrearsci.2010.08.007, 2010.
Nomura, K., Yamaoka, K., Okano, T., and Yano, E.: Risk perception, risk-taking attitude, and hypothetical behavior of active volcano tourists, Hum. Ecol. Risk Assess., 10, 595–604, https://doi.org/10.1080/10807030490452214, 2004.
O'Brien, S., Federici, F., Cadwell, P., Marlowe, J., and Gerber, B.: Language translation during disaster: A comparative analysis of five national approaches, Int. J. Disast. Risk Re., 31, 627–636, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2018.07.006, 2018.
Ogie, R., Rho, J. C., Clarke, R. J., and Moore, A.: Disaster risk communication in culturally and linguistically diverse communities: the role of technology, Proceedings, 2, 1256, https://doi.org/10.3390/proceedings2191256, 2018.
Oltedal, S., Moen, B.-E., Klempe, H., and Rundmo, T.: Explaining risk perception: An evaluation of cultural theory, Rotunde publikasjoner No. 85, Department of Psychology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Trondheim, Norway, ISBN 82-7892-025-7, 2004.
Paton, D., Smith, L., Daly, M., and Johnston, D.: Risk perception and volcanic hazard mitigation: Individual and social perspectives, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 172, 179–188, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2007.12.026, 2008.
Paton, D., Sagala, S., Okada, N., Jang, L.-J., Buergelt, P., and Gregg, C. E.: Making sense of natural hazard mitigation: Personal, social and cultural influences, Environ. Hazards-UK, 9, 183–196, https://doi.org/10.3763/ehaz.2010.0039, 2010.
Perry, R. W. and Lindell, M. K.: Volcanic risk perception and adjustment in a multi-hazard environment, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 172, 170–178, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2007.12.006, 2008.
Renn, O. and Rohrmann, B. (Eds.): Cross-Cultural Risk Perception, Technology, Risk, and Society, vol. 13, Springer, Boston, MA, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4757-4891-8, 2000.
Ricci, T., Barberi, F., Davis, M. S., Isaia, R., and Nave, R.: Volcanic risk perception in the Campi Flegrei area, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 254, 118–130, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2013.01.002, 2013.
Roder, G., Ruljigaljig, T., Lin, C. W., and Tarolli, P.: Natural hazards knowledge and risk perception of Wujie Indigenous community in Taiwan, Nat. Hazards, 81, 641–662, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-2100-4, 2016.
Romero, J. E., Morgado, E., Pisello, A., Boschetty, F., Petrelli, M., Cáceres, F., Alam, M. A., Polacci, M., Palma, J. L., Arzilli, F., Vera, F., Gutiérrez, R., and Morgavi, D.: Pre-eruptive conditions of the 3 March 2015 lava fountain of Villarrica Volcano (Southern Andes), B. Volcanol., 85, 2, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-022-01621-0, 2023.
Salazar, G. and Jalabert, D.: Towards a landscape ecosophy: Interpreting how the Villarrica-Pucón urban system inhabitants in the Araucanía region of Chile perceive and relate with the dynamics of landscape, Urbe, 8, 28–41, https://doi.org/10.1590/2175-3369.008.001.SE02, 2016.
Sepúlveda, M. E.: La historia eruptiva de los volcanes hispanoamericanos (siglos XVI al XX): el modelo chileno, Servicio de Publicaciones, Cabildo Insular de Lanzarote, Arrecife, España, ISBN 84-95938-32-4, 2004.
Siegrist, M. and Arvai, J.: Risk perception: Reflections on 40 years of research, Risk Anal., 40, 2191–2206, https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13599, 2020.
Siegrist, M., Keller, C., and Kiers, H. A.: A new look at the psychometric paradigm of perception of hazards, Risk Anal., 25, 211–222, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0272-4332.2005.00580.x, 2005.
Sjöberg, L.: A discussion of the limitations of the psychometric and cultural theory approaches to risk perception, Radiat. Prot. Dosim., 68, 219–225, https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordjournals.rpd.a031868, 1996.
Slovic, P.: Perception of risk, Science, 236, 280–285, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.3563507, 1987.
Slovic, P. and Peters, E.: Risk perception and affect, Curr. Dir. Psychol. Sci., 15, 322–325, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8721.2006.00461.x, 2006.
Slovic, P., Fischhoff, B., and Lichtenstein, S.: Rating the risks, Environ. Sci. Policy Sustain. Dev., 21, 14–39, https://doi.org/10.1080/00139157.1979.9933091, 1979.
Tansey, J.: Risk as politics, culture as power, J. Risk Res., 7, 17–32, https://doi.org/10.1080/1366987042000151188, 2004.
Tansey, J. and O'Riordan, T.: Cultural theory and risk: A review, Health Risk Soc., 1, 71–90, https://doi.org/10.1080/13698579908407008, 1999.
Teo, M., Goonetilleke, A., Deilami, K., Ahankoob, A., and Lawie, M.: Engaging residents from different ethnic and language backgrounds in disaster preparedness, Int. J. Disast. Risk Re., 39, 101245, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2019.101245, 2019.
Thouret, J.-C., Wavelet, E., Taillandier, M., Tjahjono, B., Jenkins, S. F., Azzaoui, N., and Santoni, O.: Defining population socio-economic characteristics, hazard knowledge and risk perception: the adaptive capacity to persistent volcanic threats from Semeru, Indonesia, Int. J. Disast. Risk Re., 77, 103064, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.103064, 2022.
Tobin, G. A., Whiteford, L. M., Jones, E. C., Murphy, A. D., Garren, S. J., and Padros, C. V.: The role of individual well-being in risk perception and evacuation for chronic vs. acute natural hazards in Mexico, Appl. Geogr., 31, 700–711, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2010.12.008, 2011.
van Daele, M., Moernaut, J., Silversmit, G., Schmidt, S., Fontijn, K., Heirman, K., Vandoorne, W., de Clercq, M., van Acker, J., Wolff, C., Pino, M., Urrutia, R., Roberts, S. J., Vincze, L., and de Batist, M.: The 600 yr eruptive history of Villarrica volcano (Chile) revealed by annually laminated lake sediments, Bull. Geol. Soc. Am., 126, 481–498, https://doi.org/10.1130/B30798.1, 2014.
Vergara-Pinto, F. and Romero, J. E.: Perceptions of past and future eruptions of Puyehue-Cordón Caulle (southern Chile): Connecting neighbourhood, social cohesion and disaster memory in volcanic risk research, Revista de Estudios Latinoamericanos sobre Reducción del Riesgo de Desastres, 7, 88–110, https://doi.org/10.55467/reder.v7i2.126, 2023.
Vergara-Pinto, F., O'Grady, N., Fredriksen, A., Romero, J. E., Marchant, C., Walshe, R., Donovan, A., Morin, J., and Szlam, M.: How residents and volcanoes co-produce risk knowledge: Ways of knowing and affective attunement to the rhythms of Lonquimay volcano, Chile, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 454, 108180, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2024.108180, 2024.
Wachinger, G., Renn, O., Begg, C., and Kuhlicke, C.: The risk perception paradox: Implications for governance and communication of natural hazards, Risk Anal., 33, 1049–1065, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01942.x, 2013.
Wantim, M. N., Bradriyo, I., Zisuh, A. F., Balgawa, L. M., Yannah, M., Karume, K., Peter, N.-F., Amban, B., Wayih, N. L., Yenshu, E. V., and Ayonghe, S. N.: Volcanic risk perception and coping strategies from Mounts Cameroon and Nyiragongo eruptions, Central Africa: A comparative analysis, Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection, 12, 161–189, https://doi.org/10.4236/gep.2024.126011, 2024.
Weber, E. U., Blais, A. R., and Betz, N. E.: A domain-specific risk-attitude scale: Measuring risk perceptions and risk behaviors, J. Behav. Decis. Making, 15, 263–290, https://doi.org/10.1002/bdm.414, 2002.
Wulan Mei, E. T., Harijoko, A., Setiawan, N. I., Wijayanti, H., and Riasasi, W.: Tourists' perception on volcanic hazard and risk in Guci Hot Spring, Slamet Volcano, Indonesia, IOP C. Ser. Earth Env., 412, 012012, https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/412/1/012012, 2020.
Zeidler, J. A.: Modeling cultural responses to volcanic disaster in the ancient Jama–Coaque tradition, coastal Ecuador: A case study in cultural collapse and social resilience, Quatern. Int., 394, 79–97, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2015.09.011, 2015.
Short summary
This study explores how people perceive volcanic risk around Villarrica volcano in Chile. We surveyed about 400 residents and visitors in the high-risk area. Residents showed stronger trust within their communities but less knowledge of volcanic hazards, while visitors showed greater knowledge but lower trust. Both groups expressed confidence in authorities. Findings highlight the need for risk communication adapted to different groups to improve preparedness and strengthen community resilience.
This study explores how people perceive volcanic risk around Villarrica volcano in Chile. We...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint