Articles | Volume 26, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2291-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-2291-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
19 May 2026
Research article |
| 19 May 2026
| 19 May 2026
Detection of atmospheric rivers affecting the western Mediterranean and producing extreme rainfall over northern-central Italy
Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra “A. Desio”, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milan, 20133, Italy
Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, National Research Council of Italy, CNR-ISAC, Bologna, 40129, Italy
Isacco Sala
Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra “A. Desio”, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milan, 20133, Italy
Alessandro Comunian
Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra “A. Desio”, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milan, 20133, Italy
Daniele Mastrangelo
Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, National Research Council of Italy, CNR-ISAC, Bologna, 40129, Italy
Mario Marcello Miglietta
Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, National Research Council of Italy, CNR-ISAC, Padua, 35127, Italy
Lucia Drago Pitura
Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, National Research Council of Italy, CNR-ISAC, Bologna, 40129, Italy
now at: 3B Meteo S.r.l., Bergamo, 24036, Italy
Federico Grazzini
ARPAE, Hydro-Meteorological and Climate Service, Bologna, 40122, Italy
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Emmanouil Flaounas, Leonardo Aragão, Lisa Bernini, Stavros Dafis, Benjamin Doiteau, Helena Flocas, Suzanne L. Gray, Alexia Karwat, John Kouroutzoglou, Piero Lionello, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Florian Pantillon, Claudia Pasquero, Platon Patlakas, María Ángeles Picornell, Federico Porcù, Matthew D. K. Priestley, Marco Reale, Malcolm J. Roberts, Hadas Saaroni, Dor Sandler, Enrico Scoccimarro, Michael Sprenger, and Baruch Ziv
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Roberto Ingrosso, Piero Lionello, Mario Marcello Miglietta, and Gianfausto Salvadori
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2443–2448, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2443-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2443-2023, 2023
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Tornadoes represent disruptive and dangerous weather events. The prediction of these small-scale phenomena depends on the resolution of present weather forecast and climatic projections. This work discusses the occurrence of tornadoes in terms of atmospheric variables and provides analytical expressions for their conditional probability. These formulas represent a tool for tornado alert systems and for estimating the future evolution of tornado frequency and intensity in climate projections.
Christian Ferrarin, Florian Pantillon, Silvio Davolio, Marco Bajo, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Elenio Avolio, Diego S. Carrió, Ioannis Pytharoulis, Claudio Sanchez, Platon Patlakas, Juan Jesús González-Alemán, and Emmanouil Flaounas
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The combined use of meteorological and ocean models enabled the analysis of extreme sea conditions driven by Medicane Ianos, which hit the western coast of Greece on 18 September 2020, flooding and damaging the coast. The large spread associated with the ensemble highlighted the high model uncertainty in simulating such an extreme weather event. The different simulations have been used for outlining hazard scenarios that represent a fundamental component of the coastal risk assessment.
Peter Hitchcock, Amy Butler, Andrew Charlton-Perez, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Tim Stockdale, James Anstey, Dann Mitchell, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Tongwen Wu, Yixiong Lu, Daniele Mastrangelo, Piero Malguzzi, Hai Lin, Ryan Muncaster, Bill Merryfield, Michael Sigmond, Baoqiang Xiang, Liwei Jia, Yu-Kyung Hyun, Jiyoung Oh, Damien Specq, Isla R. Simpson, Jadwiga H. Richter, Cory Barton, Jeff Knight, Eun-Pa Lim, and Harry Hendon
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5073–5092, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5073-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5073-2022, 2022
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This paper describes an experimental protocol focused on sudden stratospheric warmings to be carried out by subseasonal forecast modeling centers. These will allow for inter-model comparisons of these major disruptions to the stratospheric polar vortex and their impacts on the near-surface flow. The protocol will lead to new insights into the contribution of the stratosphere to subseasonal forecast skill and new approaches to the dynamical attribution of extreme events.
Emmanouil Flaounas, Silvio Davolio, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Florian Pantillon, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Miguel Angel Gaertner, Maria Hatzaki, Victor Homar, Samira Khodayar, Gerasimos Korres, Vassiliki Kotroni, Jonilda Kushta, Marco Reale, and Didier Ricard
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 173–208, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-173-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-173-2022, 2022
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Mario Marcello Miglietta and Silvio Davolio
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 627–646, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-627-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-627-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The main results emerging from the HyMeX SOP1 campaign and in the subsequent research activity in three Italian target areas are highlighted through conceptual models and through the identification of the relevant mesoscale environmental characteristics conducive to heavy rain events.
Samira Khodayar, Silvio Davolio, Paolo Di Girolamo, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, Emmanouil Flaounas, Nadia Fourrie, Keun-Ok Lee, Didier Ricard, Benoit Vie, Francois Bouttier, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, and Veronique Ducrocq
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 17051–17078, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17051-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17051-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Heavy precipitation (HP) constitutes a major meteorological threat in the western Mediterranean. Every year, recurrent events affect the area with fatal consequences. Despite this being a well-known issue, open questions still remain. The understanding of the underlying mechanisms and the modeling representation of the events must be improved. In this article we present the most recent lessons learned from the Hydrological Cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment (HyMeX).
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Short summary
Atmospheric rivers, narrow and long corridors of intense horizontal moisture transport, may produce heavy precipitation where they are forced to rise over the orography. This has been recently shown to occur also in the Mediterranean basin, especially over the Alps and Apennines in Italy. The present study analyses the presence of atmospheric rivers in this area, in the period 1961–2024, and reveals a strong connection with extreme rainfall over northern-central Italy.
Atmospheric rivers, narrow and long corridors of intense horizontal moisture transport, may...
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