Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 26, issue 4
Articles | Volume 26, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1705-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1705-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 26, issue 4
Research article
 | 
14 Apr 2026
Research article |  | 14 Apr 2026

Quantifying fire effects on debris flow runout using a morphodynamic model and stochastic surrogates

Elaine T. Spiller, Luke A. McGuire, Palak Patel, Abani Patra, and E. Bruce Pitman

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Short summary
Fire in steep landscapes increases the potential for debris flows that can develop during intense rainstorms. To explore possible debris flow hazards, we utilize a computational model of the physical processes of debris flow initiation and runout. Such process-based models are computationally intensive and of limited use in rapid hazard assessments. Thus we build statistical surrogate of these physical models to examine how inundation footprints vary with rainfall intensity and time since fire.
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