What controls fire size in the South American Gran Chaco? Exploring atmospheric and landscape drivers through Remote Sensing

San Martín, Rodrigo; Ottlé, Catherine; Sörensson, Anna; Vaittinada Ayar, Pradeebane; Mouillot, Florent; Malfante, Marielle

doi:10.5194/nhess-26-1479-2026

Articles | Volume 26, issue 3

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1479-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1479-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 26, issue 3

Research article

|

24 Mar 2026

Research article |

| 24 Mar 2026

What controls fire size in the South American Gran Chaco? Exploring atmospheric and landscape drivers through Remote Sensing

Rodrigo San Martín, Catherine Ottlé, Anna Sörensson, Pradeebane Vaittinada Ayar, Florent Mouillot, and Marielle Malfante

Publisher's note: The last name of Anna Sörensson was misspelled in the original paper and was corrected on 30 March 2026.

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1479-2026-supplement

Data sets

ERA5-Land hourly data from 1950 to present J. Muñoz Sabater https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.e2161bac

Land cover classification gridded maps from 1992 to present derived from satellite observation Copernicus Climate Change Service, Climate Data Store https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.006f2c9a

MODIS/Terra Leaf Area Index/FPAR 8-Day L4 Global 500m SIN Grid V061 R. Myneni et al. https://doi.org/10.5067/MODIS/MOD15A2H.061

MODIS/Terra+Aqua Leaf Area Index/FPAR 8-Day L4 Global 500m SIN Grid V061 R. Myneni et al. https://doi.org/10.5067/MODIS/MCD15A2H.061

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Short summary

We studied wildfires in the Gran Chaco, one of the world’s largest dry forests, to understand why some fires become much larger than others. By analyzing thousands of fires together with environmental and landscape data, we found that fire size is mainly shaped by topography and vegetation structure, which determine how continuous fuels are across the landscape. Weather and human factors play a secondary role in explaining final fire size.