Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 26, issue 3
Articles | Volume 26, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1269-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1269-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 26, issue 3
Research article
 | 
10 Mar 2026
Research article |  | 10 Mar 2026

Assessing the ability of the ECMWF seasonal prediction model to forecast extreme September–November rainfall events over Equatorial Africa

Hermann Ngueyon Nana, Roméo Stève Tanessong, Masilin Gudoshava, and Derbetini Appolinaire Vondou

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Short summary
The results of this study reveal that the seasonal forecast model used here successfully reproduces the observed annual precipitation cycle and seasonal spatial pattern of rainfall over the region for both September and August initial conditions, with notably better skills for September, compared to August. In addition, the model effectively captures the teleconnections between rainfall and tropical sea surface temperature, including the Indian Ocean dipole and El Niño-Southern Oscillation.
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