Articles | Volume 26, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1059-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1059-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
04 Mar 2026
Research article |
| 04 Mar 2026
| 04 Mar 2026
Changing drivers of regional large magnitude avalanche frequency throughout Colorado, USA
U.S. Geological Survey, Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, West Glacier, Montana, United States
Justin T. Martin
U.S. Geological Survey, Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, West Glacier, Montana, United States
Ethan M. Greene
Colorado Avalanche Information Center, Leadville, Colorado, United States
Nicolas Eckert
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, INRAE, CNRS, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, Grenoble, France
Adrien Favillier
Dendrolab.ch, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland
Jason Konigsberg
Colorado Avalanche Information Center, Leadville, Colorado, United States
Nickolas Kichas
U.S. Geological Survey, Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, West Glacier, Montana, United States
Daniel K. Stahle
U.S. Geological Survey, Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, West Glacier, Montana, United States
Karl W. Birkeland
Birkeland Snow and Avalanche Scientific, Bozeman, Montana, United States
Kelly Elder
U.S.D.A. Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States
Gregory T. Pederson
U.S. Geological Survey, Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, West Glacier, Montana, United States
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Snow depth varies across steep, complex mountain landscapes due to interactions between dynamic natural processes. Our study of a winter time series of high-resolution snow depth maps found that spatial resolutions greater than 0.5 m do not capture the complete patterns of snow depth spatial variability at a couloir study site in the Bridger Range of Montana, USA. The results of this research have the potential to reduce uncertainty associated with snowpack and snow water resource analysis.
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EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-336, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-336, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
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Avalanches are sensitive to climate warming, but long and reliable records are rare. We combined avalanche observations with weather and snow simulations in the Haute-Maurienne valley (French Alps). This allowed us to reconstruct past avalanche activity and explore future changes. The results show a strong long-term decline in avalanche occurrence, especially in spring, while extreme events decrease more slowly. This study provides quantitative insights to support mountain risk management.
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This paper proposes a methodology to develop a long-range multirisk database. Combining scattered pre-existing records and intensive research in historical archives provides a 1600–2020 record of past events in a valley of the French Alps. It goes far beyond any inventory existing in terms of number of events, temporal coverage and detailed description of events characteristics in a mountain context. Spatio-temporal patterns are analysed, opening perspective for multirisk assessment.
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To release a slab avalanche, a crack in a weak snow layer beneath a cohesive slab has to propagate. Information on that is essential for assessing avalanche risk. In the field, information can be gathered with the propagation saw test (PST). However, there are different standards on how to cut the PST. In this study, we experimentally investigate the effect of these different column geometries and provide models to correct for imprecise field test geometry effects on the critical cut length.
Tate G. Meehan, Ahmad Hojatimalekshah, Hans-Peter Marshall, Elias J. Deeb, Shad O'Neel, Daniel McGrath, Ryan W. Webb, Randall Bonnell, Mark S. Raleigh, Christopher Hiemstra, and Kelly Elder
The Cryosphere, 18, 3253–3276, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3253-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-3253-2024, 2024
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James Dillon, Christopher Donahue, Evan Schehrer, Karl Birkeland, and Kevin Hammonds
The Cryosphere, 18, 2557–2582, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2557-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2557-2024, 2024
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Surface hoar crystals are snow grains that form when vapor deposits on a snow surface. They create a weak layer in the snowpack that can cause large avalanches to occur. Thus, determining when and where surface hoar forms is a lifesaving matter. Here, we developed a means of mapping surface hoar using remote-sensing technologies. We found that surface hoar displayed heightened texture, hence the variability of brightness. Using this, we created surface hoar maps with an accuracy upwards of 95 %.
Zachary Hoppinen, Shadi Oveisgharan, Hans-Peter Marshall, Ross Mower, Kelly Elder, and Carrie Vuyovich
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We used changes in radar echo travel time from multiple airborne flights to estimate changes in snow depths across Idaho for two winters. We compared our radar-derived retrievals to snow pits, weather stations, and a 100 m resolution numerical snow model. We had a strong Pearson correlation and root mean squared error of 10 cm relative to in situ measurements. Our retrievals also correlated well with our model, especially in regions of dry snow and low tree coverage.
Erwan Le Roux, Guillaume Evin, Raphaëlle Samacoïts, Nicolas Eckert, Juliette Blanchet, and Samuel Morin
The Cryosphere, 17, 4691–4704, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4691-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4691-2023, 2023
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We assess projected changes in snowfall extremes in the French Alps as a function of elevation and global warming level for a high-emission scenario. On average, heavy snowfall is projected to decrease below 3000 m and increase above 3600 m, while extreme snowfall is projected to decrease below 2400 m and increase above 3300 m. At elevations in between, an increase is projected until +3 °C of global warming and then a decrease. These results have implications for the management of risks.
Léo Viallon-Galinier, Pascal Hagenmuller, and Nicolas Eckert
The Cryosphere, 17, 2245–2260, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2245-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-2245-2023, 2023
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Avalanches are a significant issue in mountain areas where they threaten recreationists and human infrastructure. Assessments of avalanche hazards and the related risks are therefore an important challenge for local authorities. Meteorological and snow cover simulations are thus important to support operational forecasting. In this study we combine it with mechanical analysis of snow profiles and find that observed avalanche data improve avalanche activity prediction through statistical methods.
Cécile Duvillier, Nicolas Eckert, Guillaume Evin, and Michael Deschâtres
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1383–1408, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1383-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1383-2023, 2023
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This study develops a method that identifies individual potential release areas (PRAs) of snow avalanches based on terrain analysis and watershed delineation and demonstrates its efficiency in the French Alps context using an extensive cadastre of past avalanche limits. Results may contribute to better understanding local avalanche hazard. The work may also foster the development of more efficient PRA detection methods based on a rigorous evaluation scheme.
Zachary S. Miller, Erich H. Peitzsch, Eric A. Sproles, Karl W. Birkeland, and Ross T. Palomaki
The Cryosphere, 16, 4907–4930, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4907-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-4907-2022, 2022
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Snow depth varies across steep, complex mountain landscapes due to interactions between dynamic natural processes. Our study of a winter time series of high-resolution snow depth maps found that spatial resolutions greater than 0.5 m do not capture the complete patterns of snow depth spatial variability at a couloir study site in the Bridger Range of Montana, USA. The results of this research have the potential to reduce uncertainty associated with snowpack and snow water resource analysis.
Erwan Le Roux, Guillaume Evin, Nicolas Eckert, Juliette Blanchet, and Samuel Morin
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1059–1075, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1059-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1059-2022, 2022
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Anticipating risks related to climate extremes is critical for societal adaptation to climate change. In this study, we propose a statistical method in order to estimate future climate extremes from past observations and an ensemble of climate change simulations. We apply this approach to snow load data available in the French Alps at 1500 m elevation and find that extreme snow load is projected to decrease by −2.9 kN m−2 (−50 %) between 1986–2005 and 2080–2099 for a high-emission scenario.
Luuk Dorren, Frédéric Berger, Franck Bourrier, Nicolas Eckert, Charalampos Saroglou, Massimiliano Schwarz, Markus Stoffel, Daniel Trappmann, Hans-Heini Utelli, and Christine Moos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-32, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-32, 2022
Publication in NHESS not foreseen
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In the daily practice of rockfall hazard analysis, trajectory simulations are used to delimit runout zones. To do so, the expert needs to separate "realistic" from "unrealistic" simulated groups of trajectories. This is often done on the basis of reach probability values. This paper provides a basis for choosing a reach probability threshold value for delimiting the rockfall runout zone, based on recordings and simulations of recent rockfall events at 18 active rockfall sites in Europe.
Hippolyte Kern, Nicolas Eckert, Vincent Jomelli, Delphine Grancher, Michael Deschatres, and Gilles Arnaud-Fassetta
The Cryosphere, 15, 4845–4852, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4845-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4845-2021, 2021
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Snow avalanches are a major component of the mountain cryosphere that often put people, settlements, and infrastructures at risk. This study investigated avalanche path morphological factors controlling snow deposit volumes, a critical aspect of snow avalanche dynamics that remains poorly known. Different statistical techniques show a slight but significant link between deposit volumes and avalanche path morphology.
Erwan Le Roux, Guillaume Evin, Nicolas Eckert, Juliette Blanchet, and Samuel Morin
The Cryosphere, 15, 4335–4356, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4335-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4335-2021, 2021
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Extreme snowfall can cause major natural hazards (avalanches, winter storms) that can generate casualties and economic damage. In the French Alps, we show that between 1959 and 2019 extreme snowfall mainly decreased below 2000 m of elevation and increased above 2000 m. At 2500 m, we find a contrasting pattern: extreme snowfall decreased in the north, while it increased in the south. This pattern might be related to increasing trends in extreme snowfall observed near the Mediterranean Sea.
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Short summary
Snow avalanches pose substantial risks to communities and public safety in Colorado. We studied tree growth patterns impacted by avalanches from 1698 to 2020 alongside meteorological data. We found variations in avalanche frequency revealing a decline in regional avalanche activity and shifts in the causes of these types of large and widespread avalanche events. This knowledge can enhance avalanche safety measures and infrastructure design.
Snow avalanches pose substantial risks to communities and public safety in Colorado. We studied...
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