Articles | Volume 26, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1015-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1015-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
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03 Mar 2026
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 03 Mar 2026
| 03 Mar 2026
Advancing glacial lake hazard and risk assessment in Bhutan through hydrodynamic flood mapping and exposure analysis
School of Geography, Politics and Sociology, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
JBA Consulting, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
Stuart Dunning
School of Geography, Politics and Sociology, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
Rachel Joanne Carr
School of Geography, Politics and Sociology, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK
Simon Allen
Department of Geography, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Sonam Wangchuk
International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, Kathmandu, Nepal
Ashim Sattar
School of Earth, Ocean and Climate Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Bhubaneswar, Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India
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Across the Tibetan Plateau, many large lakes have been changing level during the last decades as a response to climate change. In high-mountain environments, water fluxes from the land to the lakes are linked to the ground temperature of the land and to the energy fluxes between the ground and the atmosphere, which are modified by climate change. With a numerical model, we test how these water and energy fluxes have changed over the last decades and how they influence the lake level variations.
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The paper advances GLOF risk assessment in Bhutan beyond lake-centric hazard analysis, through explicitly integrating downstream exposure and community vulnerability into lake-specific risk prioritisation. By modelling hypothetical GLOFs for all potentially dangerous lakes and revealing previously unrecognised high-hazard lakes and high-risk local government units, the study provides a more robust, decision-relevant basis for targeted preparedness and mitigation planning.
The paper advances GLOF risk assessment in Bhutan beyond lake-centric hazard analysis, through...
Short summary
Glacial lake outburst floods pose a major threat to mountain communities worldwide. We assessed glacial lake outburst flood risk in Bhutan by integrating hydrodynamic flood modelling with downstream exposure data. Over 11,000 people and around 2,500 buildings are exposed. Thorthormi Tsho is identified as a very high hazard lake, with five additional high hazard lakes. Thirteen downstream settlements face high to very high GLOF risk, five identified for the first time in this study.
Glacial lake outburst floods pose a major threat to mountain communities worldwide. We assessed...
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