Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 26, issue 2
Articles | Volume 26, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1015-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-1015-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 26, issue 2
Research article
 | Highlight paper
 | 
03 Mar 2026
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 03 Mar 2026

Advancing glacial lake hazard and risk assessment in Bhutan through hydrodynamic flood mapping and exposure analysis

Sonam Rinzin, Stuart Dunning, Rachel Joanne Carr, Simon Allen, Sonam Wangchuk, and Ashim Sattar

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Editorial statement
The paper advances GLOF risk assessment in Bhutan beyond lake-centric hazard analysis, through explicitly integrating downstream exposure and community vulnerability into lake-specific risk prioritisation. By modelling hypothetical GLOFs for all potentially dangerous lakes and revealing previously unrecognised high-hazard lakes and high-risk local government units, the study provides a more robust, decision-relevant basis for targeted preparedness and mitigation planning.
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Short summary
Glacial lake outburst floods pose a major threat to mountain communities worldwide. We assessed glacial lake outburst flood risk in Bhutan by integrating hydrodynamic flood modelling with downstream exposure data. Over 11,000 people and around 2,500 buildings are exposed. Thorthormi Tsho is identified as a very high hazard lake, with five additional high hazard lakes. Thirteen downstream settlements face high to very high GLOF risk, five identified for the first time in this study.
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