Articles | Volume 25, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-591-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-591-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Enhancement of state response capability and famine mitigation: a comparative analysis of two drought events in northern China during the Ming dynasty
Fangyu Tian
Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China
Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China
Yun Su
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China
Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China
Xudong Chen
Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China
Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China
Le Tao
Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China
Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China
Related authors
No articles found.
Shuo Wang, Yun Su, Jingxue Pan, and Nianjie Zhang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-187, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-187, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Climate of the Past (CP).
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines how Chinese governments used official rain-praying rituals to respond to droughts over the past two thousand years. Using historical records and drought evidence, we find that these rituals reflected not only climate stress but also political stability and state capacity. Over time, rain-praying shifted from crisis response to routine governance, showing how social and political factors shaped long-term adaptation to climate change.
Le Tao, Yun Su, Xudong Chen, and Fangyu Tian
Clim. Past, 20, 2455–2471, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2455-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2455-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study collected 63 historical documents on the extreme heat of 1743 from three kinds of historical materials. Using text analysis methods, such as keyword extraction, grading, and classification, we reconstructed the 1743 extreme heat event. This heat event developed cumulatively, and the key areas affected are consistent with those impacted in modern times. Timely cooling and reducing exposure have been limited but necessary means of addressing extreme heat in both ancient and modern times.
Siying Chen, Yun Su, Xudong Chen, and Liang Emlyn Yang
Clim. Past, 20, 2287–2307, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2287-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2287-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study used 1802 drought and 1977 famine records from historical documents to reconstruct the spatial–temporal progression of the Chongzhen drought (1627–1644) in China and its impacts. We advance this research by reconstructing the annual spatial patterns and regional series of drought; demonstrating drought as the primary factor triggering famine; and identifying the transmission pathway of the drought's impacts and how social factors, especially human responses, regulated these impacts.
Cited articles
Atwell, W.: Volcanism and short-term climatic change in East Asian and world history, c. 1200–1699, J. World Hist., 12, 29–98, https://doi.org/10.1353/jwh.2001.0002, 2001.
Atwell, W.: Time, money, and the weather: Ming China and the “great depression” of the mid-fifteenth century, J. Asian Stud., 61, 83–113, https://doi.org/10.2307/2700190, 2002.
Baek, S. H., Smerdon, J. E., Dobrin, G.-C., Naimark, J. G., Cook, E. R., Cook, B. I., Seager, R., Cane, M. A., and Scholz, S. R.: A quantitative hydroclimatic context for the European Great Famine of 1315–1317, Commun. Earth Environ., 1, 1–7, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-020-00016-3, 2020.
Bai, S. and Wang, Y.: General History of China. Vol. 9. Middle Ages. Ming Dynasty, Shanghai People's Publishing House, Shanghai, ISBN 978-7-208-04997-0, 2004.
Bohr, P. R.: Famine in China and the Missionary: Timothy Richard as Relief Administrator and Advocate of National Reform, 1876–1884, BRILL, 317 pp., ISBN 978-1-68417-179-8, 2020.
Brázdil, R., Kiss, A., Luterbacher, J., Nash, D. J., and Řezníčková, L.: Documentary data and the study of past droughts: a global state of the art, Clim. Past, 14, 1915–1960, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1915-2018, 2018.
Brázdil, R., Dobrovolný, P., Trnka, M., Řezníčková, L., Dolák, L., and Kotyza, O.: Extreme droughts and human responses to them: the Czech Lands in the pre-instrumental period, Clim. Past, 15, 1–24, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1-2019, 2019.
Bu, F.: Assessment on the Level of Food Security in Traditional Agriculture Period of China, Agric. Hist. China, 26, 19–30, https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1000-4459.2007.04.004, 2007.
Cao, S.: Population History of China – Ming Dynasty Volume, Fudan Press, ISBN 7-309-02524-5, 2000.
Chen, Q.: Climate shocks, state capacity and peasant uprisings in North China during 25–1911 ce, Economica, 82, 295–318, https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12114, 2015.
Chen, S., Su, Y., Chen, X., and Yang, L. E.: The spatio-temporal evolution of the Chongzhen drought (1627–1644) in China and its impact on famine, Clim. Past, 20, 2287–2307, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-20-2287-2024, 2024.
Chen, X., Su, Y., and Fang, X.-Q.: Social impacts of extreme drought event in Guanzhong area, Shaanxi Province, during 1928–1931, Climatic Change, 164, 27, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-02978-5, 2021.
Chen, X., Tian, F., and Su, Y.: How did the late 1920s drought affect northern Chinese society?, Weather Clim. Extrem., 36, 100451, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2022.100451, 2022.
CMA: Yearly charts of dryness/wetness in China for the last 500 year period, Sinomap Press, Unified Book Number 12014-1086, 1981.
Cong, H.: An investigation of the rural economic development in the North China Plain from the late 14th century to the late 16th century, Res. Chin. Econ. Hist., 11–26, 1986.
deMenocal, P.: Cultural responses to climate change during the Late Holocene, Science, 292, 667–673, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1059827, 2001.
Deng, Y.: History of famine relief in China, in: 1st Edn., The Commercial Press, Jiangsu Education Publishing House, Beijing, Jiangsu, ISBN 978-7-100-08446-8, 2011.
Engler, S., Mauelshagen, F., Werner, J., and Luterbacher, J.: The Irish famine of 1740–1741: famine vulnerability and “climate migration”, Clim. Past, 9, 1161–1179, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1161-2013, 2013.
Fang, X., Zheng, J., and Ge, Q.: Historical climate change impact-response processes under the framework of food security in China, Sci. Geogr. Sin., 34, 1291–1298, https://doi.org/10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.20140121.014, 2014.
Fang, X., Su, Y., Yin, J., and Teng, J.: Transmission of climate change impacts from temperature change of grain harvests, famines and peasant uprisings in the historical China, Sci. China Earth Sci., 45, 831–842, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-015-5075-9, 2015.
FSIN: 2022 Global report on food crises: Joint analysis for better decisions, Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), World Food Programme (WFP), and International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Rome, Italy and Washington, D.C., https://hdl.handle.net/10568/141235 (last access: 3 May 2024), 2022.
Guan, H. and Li, D.: A Study of GDP and its structure in China's Ming Dynasty, China Econ. Q., 9, 787–828, https://doi.org/10.13821/j.cnki.ceq.2010.03.014, 2010.
Guo, S.: Research on the grain circulation about North China Region in Qing Dynasty, MS thesis, Shanxi University, https://doi.org/10.7666/d.Y2678915, 2009.
Han, J. and Yang, Y.: The socioeconomic effects of extreme drought events in northern China on the Ming dynasty in the late fifteenth century, Climatic Change, 164, 26, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-02972-x, 2021.
Han, J., Yang, Y., and Man, Z.: Reconstruction and analysis of sequence of extreme drought events in north of China during AD1000–2000, J. Palaeogeogr., 21, 675–684, https://doi.org/10.7605/gdlxb.2019.04.045, 2019.
Hao, Z., Wu, M., Zheng, J., Chen, J., Zhang, X., and Luo, S.: Patterns in data of extreme droughts/floods and harvest grades derived from historical documents in eastern China during 801–1910, Clim. Past, 16, 101–116, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-101-2020, 2020.
Hao, Z., Xiong, D., and Zheng, J.: How ancient China dealt with summer droughts – a case study of the whole process of the 1751 drought in the Qing dynasty, Climatic Change, 165, 16, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03049-5, 2021.
HungerMap LIVE: https://hungermap.wfp.org/, last access: 2 May 2024.
IPCC: Sections, in: Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report, Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Core Writing Team, Lee, H., and Romero, J., IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 35–115, https://doi.org/10.59327/IPCC/AR6-9789291691647, 2023.
Li, Q.: Wheat and its position in the North China Plain during Ming Dynasty, Lanzhou Acad. J., 50–58, https://kns.cnki.net/kcms2/article/abstract?v=F7lgbn8YeJpUcyA (last access: 9 February 2025), 2014.
Li, W.: The rise and development of charitable relief efforts during the late Qing dynasty, Qing Hist. J., 27–35, https://kns.cnki.net/kcms2/article/abstract?v=F7lgbn8YeJo78EP (last access: 9 February 2025), 1993.
Li, X.: Examining migrants in the Ming dynasty from an ecosystem perspective: focusing on Shanxi and Hebei in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yellow River, J. Chin. Histotical Geogr., 137–152, 1998.
Liang, F.: Historical statistics on population, land area, and land tax in China Across Dynasties, Zhonghua Book Company, Beijing, ISBN 978-7-101-06288-5, 2008.
Liu, S.: Distribution of population during the Ming Dynasty, MS thesis, Zhengzhou University, https://doi.org/10.7666/d.y783333, 2005.
Liu, Y.: The comparative study about financial income and expenditure structure of China and England from 14 to 17 century, MS thesis, Northeast Normal University, https://kns.cnki.net/kcms2/article/abstract?v=JtACmXrF271qeX (last access: 9 February 2025), 2012.
Lv, Z.: The development of agricultural economy in southern Shaanxi in Ming dynasty, J. Northwest Univ. Soc. Sci. Ed., 86–90, https://kns.cnki.net/kcms2/article/abstract?v=F7lgbn8YeJpKDW (last access: 9 February 2025), 1996.
Lv, Z.: Planting and distribution of major grain crops in the northwestern region during the Ming Dynasty, Agric. Hist. China, 57–66, 2000.
Meng, J.: Food crisis in extreme droughts in North China from 1637 to 1643, Areal Res. Dev., 41, 169–174, https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1003-2363.2022.01.028, 2022.
Mishra, A. and Singh, V.: A review of drought concepts, J. Hydrol., 391, 204–216, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.07.012, 2010.
National Bureau of Statistics of China: China Statistical Yearbook 2024, Beijing, https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/ndsj/2024/indexeh.htm (last access: 9 February 2025), 2024.
Nyamwange, M.: Famine mitigation in Kenya: some practices, impact and lessons, Middle States Geogr., 28, 37–44, 1995.
Pei, Q.: The review of causality analysis on the relationship between Paleo-Climate change and Socio-Economic dynamics, Clim. Change Res., 13, 375–382, 2017.
Pei, Q. and Zhang, D.: Long-term relationship between climate change and nomadic migration in historical China, Ecol. Soc., 19, 68, https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-06528-190268, 2014.
Peterson, L. and Haug, G.: Climate and the collapse of Maya civilization, Am. Sci., 93, 322–329, 2005.
Quan, H.: Collected Essays on Modern Chinese Economic History, Zhonghua Book Company, ISBN 978-7-101-08184-8, 2011.
Ren, M., Liu, Y., Cai, Q., Li, Q., Song, H., and Sun, C.: The collapse of the Ming Dynasty actually began with the Wanli megadrought: Insights from a hydroclimate reconstruction based on tree-ring δ18O over the past 460 years, Palaeogeogr. Palaeocl., 655, 112548, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2024.112548, 2024.
Shi, P. and Zhang, H.: Response to the catastrophe: The experience of Wenchuan Earthquake, J. Tsinghua Univ. Philos. Soc. Sci., 28, 96–113, https://doi.org/10.13613/j.cnki.qhdz.002177, 2013.
Shi, Y., Zhang, Y., Wu, B., Wang, B., Li, L., Shi, H., Jin, N., Liu, D. L., Miao, R., Lu, X., Geng, Q., Lu, C., He, L., Fang, N., Yue, C., He, J., Feng, H., Pan, S., Tian, H., and Yu, Q.: Building social resilience in North Korea can mitigate the impacts of climate change on food security, Nat. Food, 3, 499–511, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-022-00551-6, 2022.
Shiue, C. H.: The political economy of famine relief in China, 1740–1820, J. Interdiscipl. Hist., 36, 33–55, 2005.
Shuang, J. and Wang, S.: A study about food production in Shanxi during the Ming dynasty, J. Sanmenxia Polytech., 19, 85–91, https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1671-9123.2020.02.014, 2020.
Su, X.: A study of Taicangku in the Ming Dynasty, PhD thesis, Northeast Normal University, https://kns.cnki.net/kcms2/article/abstract?v=JtACmXrF271_-EuITZtEGQ84nplimMBVKGGUmQphaEJJUQSQDBxecxvu (last access: 10 February 2025), 2010.
Su, Y., He, J., Fang, X., and Teng, J.: Transmission pathways of China's historical climate change impacts based on a food security framework, Holocene, 28, 1564–1573, https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683618782600, 2018.
Tao, L., Su, Y., Chen, X., Tian, F., and Gong, Z.: How has ancient China responded differentially to the long and short timescale climate extremes? Case of the drought and heatwave in 1743, Nat. Hazards, 120, 14625–14647, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-024-06799-4, 2024.
Tian, F., Chen, X., and Su, Y.: Comparative analysis of extreme drought events and social impacts in Henan Province during the Middle Ming Dynasty, Weather Clim. Soc., 14, 1009–1021, https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-22-0015.1, 2022.
Tian, F., Su, Y., and Gong, Z.: How did ancient China prevent the transition from extreme drought to famine? Taking Wanli Drought of the Ming dynasty as an example, Int. J. Disast. Risk Re., 110, 104618, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104618, 2024.
Wang, P. K., Lin, K. H. E., Liao, Y. C., Liao, H.-M., Lin, Y. S., Hsu, C. T., Hsu, S. M., Wan, C. W., Lee, S. Y., Fan, I. C., Tan, P.-H., and Ting, T.-T.: Construction of the REACHES climate database based on historical documents of China, Sci. Data, 5, 180288, https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2018.288, 2018.
Wei, Z.: Spatio-temporal characteristics of famine and its environmental causes in the Jiangsu-Shanghai region during the Qing Dynasty (1644–1911), Prog. Geogr., 39, 1333–1344, 2020.
Wei, Z., Fang, X., and Su, Y.: Climate change and fiscal balance in China over the past two millennia, Holocene, 24, 1771–1784, https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683614551224, 2014.
Wei, Z., Rosen, A. M., Fang, X., Su, Y., and Zhang, X.: Macro-economic cycles related to climate change in dynastic China, Quaternary Res., 83, 13–23, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.yqres.2014.11.001, 2015.
Wen, K.: Chinese Encyclopedia of Meteorological Disasters, China Meteorological Press, Beijing, ISBN 978-7-5029-4588-6, 2008.
Will, P.-E.: Bureaucratie et Famine en Chine au XVIIIe siècle, Phoenix Publishing, Jiangsu Education Publishing House, Jiangsu, ISBN 7-214-03326-7, 2006.
World Bank: Prevalence of undernourishment (% of population) – China, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS?locations=CN (last access: 10 February 2025), 2024.
World Heritage Irrigation Structures: https://icid-ciid.org/award/whis (last access: 15 November 2024), 2024.
Wu, B.: The research of food security in ancient China, Northwest A&F University, 142 pp., https://kns.cnki.net/kcms2/article/abstract?v=JtACmXrF273ZS (last access: 10 February 2025), 2007.
Xia, M.: A preliminary study on the relief and rehabilitation issues of the “Ding Wu Qi Huang” in the Qing Dynasty, Mod. Chin. Hist. Stud., 21–36, https://kns.cnki.net/kcms2/article/abstract?v=JtACmXrF2708ws (last access: 10 February 2025), 1993.
Xiao, L.: Spatio-temporal distribution of famine and its relationship with climate, disaster, harvest in North China during 1736–1911, Adv. Earth Sci., 35, 478–487, 2020.
Xiao, L., Fang, X., and Ye, Y.: Reclamation and revolt: social responses in Eastern Inner Mongolia to flood/drought-induced refugees from the North China Plain 1644–1911, J. Arid Environ., 88, 9–16, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2012.07.022, 2013.
Xiao, L., Fang, X., Zheng, J., and Zhao, W.: Famine, migration and war: Comparison of climate change impacts and social responses in North China between the late Ming and late Qing dynasties, Holocene, 25, 900–910, https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683615572851, 2015.
Ye, Y.: Famine policy of the Ming Dynasty, Agric. Hist. China, 29–37, https://kns.cnki.net/kcms2/article/abstract?v=JtACmXrF272vee0 (last access: 10 February 2025), 1996.
Ye, Y.: Famine relief in Qing Dynasty, Agric. Hist. China, 59–68, https://kns.cnki.net/kcms2/article/abstract?v=JtACmXrF270ZaI (last access: 10 February 2025), 1998.
Yu, Y., Xiuqi, F., Quansheng, G., and Jingyun, Z.: Response and adaptation to climate change indicated by the relationship between revolt and drought-flood in Shandong province during Middle and Late Qing Dynasty, Sci. Geogr. Sin., 24, 680–686, 2004.
Zhai, X., Fang, X., and Su, Y.: Regional interactions in social responses to extreme climate events: a case study of the North China Famine of 1876–1879, Atmosphere-Basel, 11, 393, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11040393, 2020.
Zhang, C., Shen, T., Xu, S., and Yu, J.: Study on the security risk of “water-energy-food” in mega cities under extreme weather, J. Econ. Water Resour., 41, 55–61, https://doi.org/10.3880/j.issn.1003-9511.2023.01.008, 2023.
Zhang, D.: Variation of dry-wet climate and severe drought events as revealed in the climate records of China over the past 1000 Year, Sci. Rev., 47–49, https://kns.cnki.net/kcms2/article/abstract?v=JtACmXrF271udfx (last access: 10 February 2025), 2004.
Zhang, D.: A Compendium of Chinese Meteorological Records of the Last 3000 Years, in: 1st Edn., Phoenix Publishing, Jiangsu Education Publishing House, Nanjing, ISBN 978-7-5499-2767-8, 2013.
Zhang, D. and Liang, Y.: A Long Lasting and Extensive Drought Event over China in 1876–1878, Adv. Clim. Change Res., 1, 91–99, https://doi.org/10.3724/SP.J.1248.2010.00091, 2010.
Zhang, D., Jim, C. Y., Lin, C. S., He, Y. Q., and Lee, F.: Climate change, social unrest and dynastic transition in ancient China, Chinese Sci. Bull., 50, 137–144, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02897517, 2005.
Zhang, D. D., Lee, H. F., Wang, C., Li, B., Pei, Q., Zhang, J., and An, Y.: The causality analysis of climate change and large-scale human crisis, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 108, 17296–17301, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1104268108, 2011.
Zhang, M.: The impacts of population distribution to social economy, Collect. Pap. Hist. Stud., 27–33, https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.0559-8095.2006.03.005, 2006.
Zhang, X.: The progress of food production in the late Ming dynasty, Acad. Explor., 96–105, https://kns.cnki.net/kcms2/article/abstract?v=JtACmXrF270bYq (last access: 10 February 2025), 2005.
Zhao, X.: Natural disasters and the development of Chinese history, J. Cult. Interact. East Asia, 7, 25–34, https://doi.org/10.1515/jciea-2016-070103, 2016.
Zhao, Z.: Charitable relief activities in the Ming Dynasty, Acad. J. Zhongzhou, 160–162, https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1003-0751.2007.02.041, 2007.
Zheng, J., Hao, Z., Zhang, X., Liu, H., Li, M., and Ge, Q.: Drought/flood spatial patterns in centennial cold and warm periods of the past years over eastern China, Chinese Sci. Bull., 59, 2964–2971, 2014a.
Zheng, J., Xiao, L., Fang, X., Hao, Z., Ge, Q., and Li, B.: How climate change impacted the collapse of the Ming dynasty, Climatic Change, 127, 169–182, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1244-7, 2014b.
Short summary
This study developed a model of extreme drought-induced famine processes and response mechanisms in ancient China. The spatial distribution of drought and famine during the Chenghua drought and the Wanli drought was constructed. By categorizing drought-affected counties into three types, a comparative analysis of the differences in famine severity and response effectiveness between the Chenghua and Wanli droughts was conducted.
This study developed a model of extreme drought-induced famine processes and response mechanisms...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint