Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 25, issue 11
Articles | Volume 25, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4299-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4299-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 25, issue 11
Research article
 | 
04 Nov 2025
Research article |  | 04 Nov 2025

Hydrological drought prediction and its influencing features analysis based on a machine learning model

Min Li, Yuhang Yao, Zilong Feng, and Ming Ou

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Short summary
This study proposes an innovative method for predicting drought in the Huaihe River Basin of China using advanced machine learning and interpretable artificial intelligence techniques. By analyzing more than 50 years of data, the model successfully predicted four drought categories with an accuracy of 79.9 %. It used explanatory methods to analyze the contribution of different drought influencing factors, providing key insights for early warning systems and water resources planning.
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