Articles | Volume 25, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4299-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4299-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Hydrological drought prediction and its influencing features analysis based on a machine learning model
Min Li
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
College of Hydraulic Science and Engineering, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou, 225000, China
State Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, 210000 Nanjing, China
Yuhang Yao
College of Hydraulic Science and Engineering, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou, 225000, China
Zilong Feng
JiLin Province Water Resource and Hydropower Consultative Company of P.R CHINA, Changchun, 130012, China
College of Hydraulic Science and Engineering, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou, 225000, China
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Cited
16 citations as recorded by crossref.
- A Century of Data: Machine Learning Approaches to Drought Prediction and Trend Analysis in Arid Regions M. Bouaziz et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w17243567
- Improving PDSI Z-Index Prediction with Ensemble Learning: A Case Study from the Troy Region of Türkiye U. Mucan & E. Arslantaş Civelekoğlu https://doi.org/10.3390/su18041752
- Machine and Deep Learning Approaches for Drought Characterization and Prediction: a Comprehensive Review C. Naresh & A. Mathew https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-026-10131-8
- A XGBoost-based composite drought index combining multi-source remote sensing data for drought monitoring in China X. Huang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103623
- A hybrid TFN–LSTM model for groundwater level forecasting in Rhode Island, USA H. Chu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2026.130474
- Comparative Assessment of Machine Learning and Statistical Models for Precipitation Forecasting in Semi-Arid Regions K. Eryürük & Ş. Eryürük https://doi.org/10.64808/engineeringperspective.1914439
- An Adaptive Grey Wolf Optimized Bidirectional LSTM Framework for Flood Risk-Oriented Rainfall Forecasting in Tropical Climate Systems Y. Sari et al. https://doi.org/10.48084/etasr.18161
- A comparative assessment of cluster-based regionalization approaches using conceptual rainfall–runoff models J. Ougahi & J. Rowan https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-49424-z
- New multivariate composite remote sensing drought index based on machine learning and geospatial techniques, insights from Northern Iraq K. Qaraghuli et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103211
- A Novel Integration of Decision Tree and K-Means for Enhanced Monthly Rainfall Forecasting and Variable Importance Ranking S. Mirhashemi & M. Karimi https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-026-04532-3
- GeoAI-Based multi-model framework for spatiotemporal drought modeling in arid environments A. Alruzuq https://doi.org/10.1080/01431161.2026.2689555
- Disentangling Climatic and Anthropogenic Drivers of Vegetation Dynamics in the Upper Indus Basin Using Multi-Source Remote Sensing K. Ahmad et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w18121451
- Soil moisture measurements: a review E. Eishoeei et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compag.2025.111379
- Dual-Track Attribution and Compound-Drought Risk Quantification Under Coupled Climate Change and Land-Use Dynamics: An Integrated SWAT–CMIP6–Budyko–XGBoost/SHAP–C-Vine Copula Framework Applied to a Subtropical Monsoon Basin J. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture16111178
- Predicción de sequías en zonas altoandinas de Puno mediante un modelo híbrido LSTM–XGBOOST K. Colquehuanca Zapana https://doi.org/10.57166/riqchary/v8.n1.2026.7
- Meteorological-to-hydrological drought propagation and its drivers in the Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan: A multiscale analysis using explainable machine learning K. Ahmad et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103751
16 citations as recorded by crossref.
- A Century of Data: Machine Learning Approaches to Drought Prediction and Trend Analysis in Arid Regions M. Bouaziz et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w17243567
- Improving PDSI Z-Index Prediction with Ensemble Learning: A Case Study from the Troy Region of Türkiye U. Mucan & E. Arslantaş Civelekoğlu https://doi.org/10.3390/su18041752
- Machine and Deep Learning Approaches for Drought Characterization and Prediction: a Comprehensive Review C. Naresh & A. Mathew https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-026-10131-8
- A XGBoost-based composite drought index combining multi-source remote sensing data for drought monitoring in China X. Huang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103623
- A hybrid TFN–LSTM model for groundwater level forecasting in Rhode Island, USA H. Chu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2026.130474
- Comparative Assessment of Machine Learning and Statistical Models for Precipitation Forecasting in Semi-Arid Regions K. Eryürük & Ş. Eryürük https://doi.org/10.64808/engineeringperspective.1914439
- An Adaptive Grey Wolf Optimized Bidirectional LSTM Framework for Flood Risk-Oriented Rainfall Forecasting in Tropical Climate Systems Y. Sari et al. https://doi.org/10.48084/etasr.18161
- A comparative assessment of cluster-based regionalization approaches using conceptual rainfall–runoff models J. Ougahi & J. Rowan https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-49424-z
- New multivariate composite remote sensing drought index based on machine learning and geospatial techniques, insights from Northern Iraq K. Qaraghuli et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103211
- A Novel Integration of Decision Tree and K-Means for Enhanced Monthly Rainfall Forecasting and Variable Importance Ranking S. Mirhashemi & M. Karimi https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-026-04532-3
- GeoAI-Based multi-model framework for spatiotemporal drought modeling in arid environments A. Alruzuq https://doi.org/10.1080/01431161.2026.2689555
- Disentangling Climatic and Anthropogenic Drivers of Vegetation Dynamics in the Upper Indus Basin Using Multi-Source Remote Sensing K. Ahmad et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w18121451
- Soil moisture measurements: a review E. Eishoeei et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compag.2025.111379
- Dual-Track Attribution and Compound-Drought Risk Quantification Under Coupled Climate Change and Land-Use Dynamics: An Integrated SWAT–CMIP6–Budyko–XGBoost/SHAP–C-Vine Copula Framework Applied to a Subtropical Monsoon Basin J. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture16111178
- Predicción de sequías en zonas altoandinas de Puno mediante un modelo híbrido LSTM–XGBOOST K. Colquehuanca Zapana https://doi.org/10.57166/riqchary/v8.n1.2026.7
- Meteorological-to-hydrological drought propagation and its drivers in the Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan: A multiscale analysis using explainable machine learning K. Ahmad et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103751
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 01 Aug 2026
Short summary
This study proposes an innovative method for predicting drought in the Huaihe River Basin of China using advanced machine learning and interpretable artificial intelligence techniques. By analyzing more than 50 years of data, the model successfully predicted four drought categories with an accuracy of 79.9 %. It used explanatory methods to analyze the contribution of different drought influencing factors, providing key insights for early warning systems and water resources planning.
This study proposes an innovative method for predicting drought in the Huaihe River Basin of...
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