Articles | Volume 25, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4053-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4053-2025
Research article
 | 
21 Oct 2025
Research article |  | 21 Oct 2025

Forecasting agricultural drought: the Australian Agricultural Drought Indicators

Andrew Schepen, Andrew Bolt, Dorine Bruget, John Carter, Donald Gaydon, Mihir Gupta, Zvi Hochman, Neal Hughes, Chris Sharman, Peter Tan, and Peter Taylor

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Cited articles

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Carter, J. O., Hall, W. B., Brook, K. D., McKeon, G. M., Day, K. A., and Paull, C. J.: Aussie Grass: Australian Grassland and Rangeland Assessment by Spatial Simulation, in: Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems, edited by: Hammer, G. L., Nicholls, N., and Mitchell, C., Atmospheric and Oceanographic Sciences Library, vol 21. Springer, Dordrecht, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-015-9351-9_20, 2000. 
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Devanand, A., Falster, G. M., Gillett, Z. E., Hobeichi, S., Holgate, C. M., Jin, C., Mu, M., Parker, T., Rifai, S. W., and Rome, K. S.: Australia's Tinderbox Drought: An extreme natural event likely worsened by human-caused climate change, Science Advances, 10, eadj3460, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adj3460, 2024. 
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The success of agricultural enterprises is affected by climate variability and other important factors like soil conditions and market prices. We have developed an agricultural drought forecasting system to help drought analysts and policymakers more accurately identify communities that are enduring financial stress. By coupling climate forecasts and agricultural models, we can skillfully predict crop yields and farm profits for the coming seasons, which will support proactive responses.
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