Articles | Volume 25, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4053-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-4053-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Forecasting agricultural drought: the Australian Agricultural Drought Indicators
Andrew Schepen
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Dutton Park, QLD, Australia
Andrew Bolt
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, St Lucia, QLD, Australia
Dorine Bruget
Queensland Government Department of Environment, Tourism, Science and Innovation, Dutton Park, QLD, Australia
John Carter
Queensland Government Department of Environment, Tourism, Science and Innovation, Dutton Park, QLD, Australia
Donald Gaydon
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, St Lucia, QLD, Australia
Mihir Gupta
Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Canberra, ACT, Australia
Zvi Hochman
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, St Lucia, QLD, Australia
independent researcher: Sydney, Australia
Neal Hughes
Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Canberra, ACT, Australia
Chris Sharman
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Sandy Bay, TAS, Australia
Peter Tan
Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Canberra, ACT, Australia
Peter Taylor
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Sandy Bay, TAS, Australia
Related authors
Neal Hughes, Donald Gaydon, Mihir Gupta, Andrew Schepen, Peter Tan, Geoffrey Brent, Andrew Turner, Sean Bellew, Wei Ying Soh, Christopher Sharman, Peter Taylor, John Carter, Dorine Bruget, Zvi Hochman, Ross Searle, Yong Song, Patrick Mitchell, Yacob Beletse, Dean Holzworth, Laura Guillory, Connor Brodie, Jonathon McComb, and Ramneek Singh
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3461–3482, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3461-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3461-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Droughts can impact agriculture and regional economies, and their severity is rising with climate change. Our research introduces a new system, the Australian Agricultural Drought Indicators (AADI), which measures droughts based on their effects on crops, livestock and farm profits rather than on traditional weather metrics. Using climate data and modelling, AADI predicts drought impacts more accurately, helping policymakers prepare for and respond to financial and social impacts during droughts.
Neal Hughes, Donald Gaydon, Mihir Gupta, Andrew Schepen, Peter Tan, Geoffrey Brent, Andrew Turner, Sean Bellew, Wei Ying Soh, Christopher Sharman, Peter Taylor, John Carter, Dorine Bruget, Zvi Hochman, Ross Searle, Yong Song, Patrick Mitchell, Yacob Beletse, Dean Holzworth, Laura Guillory, Connor Brodie, Jonathon McComb, and Ramneek Singh
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 3461–3482, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3461-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3461-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Droughts can impact agriculture and regional economies, and their severity is rising with climate change. Our research introduces a new system, the Australian Agricultural Drought Indicators (AADI), which measures droughts based on their effects on crops, livestock and farm profits rather than on traditional weather metrics. Using climate data and modelling, AADI predicts drought impacts more accurately, helping policymakers prepare for and respond to financial and social impacts during droughts.
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Short summary
The success of agricultural enterprises is affected by climate variability and other important factors like soil conditions and market prices. We have developed an agricultural drought forecasting system to help drought analysts and policymakers more accurately identify communities that are enduring financial stress. By coupling climate forecasts and agricultural models, we can skillfully predict crop yields and farm profits for the coming seasons, which will support proactive responses.
The success of agricultural enterprises is affected by climate variability and other important...
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