Articles | Volume 25, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3957-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3957-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
16 Oct 2025
Research article |
| 16 Oct 2025
| 16 Oct 2025
Debris flow susceptibility in the Jinsha River Basin, China: a Bayesian assessment framework based on geomorphodynamic parameters
Institute of Geomechanics, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
Key Laboratory of Active Tectonics and Geological Safety, Ministry of Natural Resources, Beijing 100081, China
Xin Yao
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute of Geomechanics, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
Key Laboratory of Active Tectonics and Geological Safety, Ministry of Natural Resources, Beijing 100081, China
Xuchao Zhu
State Key Laboratory of Soil and Sustainable Agriculture, Institute of Soil Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, China
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Short summary
Debris flow susceptibility was assessed using erosion intensity, connectivity, and erodibility. A Bayesian model integrated precipitation and surface conditions to evaluate debris flow risks. Quantitative metrics elucidated debris flow likelihood across diverse spatiotemporal scales. The model accurately predicted a recent debris flow event, validating its disaster assessment.
Debris flow susceptibility was assessed using erosion intensity, connectivity, and erodibility....
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