Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 25, issue 10
Articles | Volume 25, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3957-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3957-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 25, issue 10
Research article
 | 
16 Oct 2025
Research article |  | 16 Oct 2025

Debris flow susceptibility in the Jinsha River Basin, China: a Bayesian assessment framework based on geomorphodynamic parameters

Zhenkui Gu, Xin Yao, and Xuchao Zhu

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Short summary
Debris flow susceptibility was assessed using erosion intensity, connectivity, and erodibility. A Bayesian model integrated precipitation and surface conditions to evaluate debris flow risks. Quantitative metrics elucidated debris flow likelihood across diverse spatiotemporal scales. The model accurately predicted a recent debris flow event, validating its disaster assessment.
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