Articles | Volume 25, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3619-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.Disentangling atmospheric, hydrological, and coupling uncertainties in compound flood modeling within a coupled Earth system model
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- Final revised paper (published on 26 Sep 2025)
- Supplement to the final revised paper
- Preprint (discussion started on 24 Sep 2024)
- Supplement to the preprint
Interactive discussion
Status: closed
Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor
| : Report abuse
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RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-2785', Anonymous Referee #1, 15 Oct 2024
- AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Dongyu Feng, 02 Jan 2025
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RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2024-2785', Anonymous Referee #2, 20 Oct 2024
- AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Dongyu Feng, 02 Jan 2025
Peer review completion
AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
ED: Publish as is (04 Feb 2025) by Avantika Gori

ED: Publish as is (24 Feb 2025) by Avantika Gori

ED: Reconsider after major revisions (further review by editor and referees) (10 Mar 2025) by Uwe Ulbrich (Executive editor)

AR by Dongyu Feng on behalf of the Authors (10 Mar 2025)
Author's response
Author's tracked changes
Manuscript
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (15 Apr 2025) by Avantika Gori
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (01 May 2025)
RR by Anonymous Referee #3 (14 May 2025)

ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (12 Jun 2025) by Avantika Gori

AR by Dongyu Feng on behalf of the Authors (17 Jun 2025)
Author's response
Author's tracked changes
Manuscript
ED: Publish as is (30 Jun 2025) by Avantika Gori

ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (17 Jul 2025) by Bruce D. Malamud (Executive editor)

AR by Dongyu Feng on behalf of the Authors (20 Jul 2025)
Manuscript
Summary
This paper uses an earth systems modeling framework (1) to simulate compound flooding from Hurricane Irene with different processes represented (e.g., components activated) (2) to investigate the uncertainties that meteorological outputs from an atmospheric model introduce on flooding, and (3) to study the sensitivity of Hurricane Irene flooding under different hydrologic conditions. The authors find that coupling different model components (river, land, ocean) improve the model’s ability to generate flooded area from Hurricane Irene (compared to satellite imagery). However, the E3M tends to overestimate flooding overall and requires the use of a computationally expensive local ocean model to resolve the surge inundation. The authors show that the contribution of the uncertainty of the meteorological inputs (via an atmospheric model) is large and that antecedent soil moisture conditions impact the river discharge.
I commend the authors on their analysis and think there are interesting results that inform complexities that arise with modeling hurricane flooding. I particularly enjoyed the analysis of the hydrologic conditions/drivers. The article covers topics relevant to NHESS and could be considered for publication after major revisions. I have included some general and specific comments for the authors.
General Comments
The gaps are not clearly stated so it is hard to understand the novelty/contribution of this work in the context of existing literature. Overall, this paper seems to focus on how E3Ms new components can be used to study different things including model coupling uncertainty, meteorologic uncertainty, and the impact of different hydrologic conditions on river discharge. These analyses have been done more in-depth in previous studies which the authors could discuss and cite (e.g., Munoz et al. (2022); Gori et al. (2020); Eilander et al. (2023); Bermudez et al. (2021)). Is the focus of the study on improving modeling of compound riverine and coastal flooding compared to regional models (Line 11, 54)? Is it on uncertainties – model coupling, meteorological, and initial hydrologic conditions (Line 59, 91)? The layout of the introduction could be improved with more relevant citations for the issues the paper is addressing.
The methods section was unclear at times. This work refers to previous papers that describe the modeling framework, validation, and application. However, there is not enough information provided so that the paper is readable by someone in the field. For example, in Section 2.1, are these components 1D or 2D? What are the spatial and temporal resolutions? How have the different model components been used in previous studies and/or validated? By improving the description of the different model components in the paper, it would help readers understand the limitations of the different analysis. For example, if the river model uses a macroscale inundation scheme (Line 284) that should be stated earlier on.
The clarity of the manuscript could be improved. The authors should define terms and use them consistently throughout the paper including forcing, drivers, processes, components, responses, conditions, scenarios/experiments (for example Lines 78-81, Lines 210-220, Line 355, Line 371-380, Line 387). The authors should state in the abstract and early in the introduction that E3SM is global. It wasn’t until Line 109 that this is mentioned making it unclear in the introduction how/why “regional models” are mentioned in comparison (Line 55-57, Line 391).
The framing of the results and conclusions could be improved. I wonder if it would be more effective to narrow the scope of the manuscript, especially because it addresses so many issues and methods (models, structural equation, ANN). Some of my confusion with the results and discussion relate back to the lack of clarity in the gap/objective of the study. For example, Figure 4. results show that the hit rate is very low when the ocean is not resolved. The large-scale river model is not reliable for event-scale riverine flooding (Line 285). However, discharge and surge are key processes in compound flooding from hurricanes (Lines 35-40) and this is the event the model is being evaluated against. Your results seem to support the need for resolving flood processes at finer resolutions (e.g., regional or smaller) (again Line 340-342) which E3M is not able to do efficiently due to computational constraints (Line 427). Why did you choose a hurricane to study? Would it be more interesting to look at the impacts of coupling, inputs, conditions, etc. on long-term simulations which the E3Ms seems more suited for (as the authors suggest in Line 435-438)?
Specific Comments