Articles | Volume 25, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3381-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3381-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
15 Sep 2025
Research article |
| 15 Sep 2025
| 15 Sep 2025
Sectoral vulnerability to drought: exploring the role of blue and green water dependency in mid- and high-latitude regions
Uppsala University, Department of Earth Sciences, Program for Air, Water and Landscape Sciences, Villavägen 16, 75236 Uppsala, Sweden
Malgorzata Blicharska
Uppsala University, Department of Earth Sciences, Program for Natural Resources and Sustainable Development, Villavägen 16, 75236 Uppsala, Sweden
Thomas Grabs
Uppsala University, Department of Earth Sciences, Program for Air, Water and Landscape Sciences, Villavägen 16, 75236 Uppsala, Sweden
Claudia Teutschbein
Uppsala University, Department of Earth Sciences, Program for Air, Water and Landscape Sciences, Villavägen 16, 75236 Uppsala, Sweden
Related authors
Elin Stenfors, Malgorzata Blicharska, Thomas Grabs, and Claudia Teutschbein
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 3809–3832, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3809-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3809-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Through a survey involving six water-dependent sectors, the relevance and impact of drought vulnerability factors for sectors and societies in forested cold climates were studied. Results show that the relevance and impact of vulnerability factors differ across sectors and how governance processes and policies are important for drought risk. Results offer unique insights into the dynamics of drought vulnerability that are valuable for risk assessment, drought plans, and increasing resilience.
Riccardo Biella, Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Ilias Pechlivanidis, Daniela Cid, Maria Carmen Llasat, Marthe Wens, Marleen Lam, Elin Stenfors, Samuel Sutanto, Elena Ridolfi, Serena Ceola, Pedro Alencar, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Monica Ionita, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Scott J. McGrane, Benedetta Moccia, Viorica Nagavciuc, Fabio Russo, Svitlana Krakovska, Andrijana Todorovic, Faranak Tootoonchi, Patricia Trambauer, Raffaele Vignola, and Claudia Teutschbein
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2073, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2073, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This research by the Drought in the Anthropocene (DitA) network highlights the crucial role of forecasting systems and Drought Management Plans in European drought risk management. Based on a survey of water managers during the 2022 European drought, it underscores the impact of preparedness on response and the evolution of drought management strategies across the continent. The study concludes with a plea for a European Drought Directive.
Riccardo Biella, Ansastasiya Shyrokaya, Monica Ionita, Raffaele Vignola, Samuel Sutanto, Andrijana Todorovic, Claudia Teutschbein, Daniela Cid, Maria Carmen Llasat, Pedro Alencar, Alessia Matanó, Elena Ridolfi, Benedetta Moccia, Ilias Pechlivanidis, Anne van Loon, Doris Wendt, Elin Stenfors, Fabio Russo, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Lucy Barker, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Marleen Lam, Monika Bláhová, Patricia Trambauer, Raed Hamed, Scott J. McGrane, Serena Ceola, Sigrid Jørgensen Bakke, Svitlana Krakovska, Viorica Nagavciuc, Faranak Tootoonchi, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Sandra Hauswirth, Shreedhar Maskey, Svitlana Zubkovych, Marthe Wens, and Lena Merete Tallaksen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2069, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2069, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This research by the Drought in the Anthropocene (DitA) network highlights gaps in European drought management exposed by the 2022 drought and proposes a new direction. Using a Europe-wide survey of water managers, we examine four areas: increasing drought risk, impacts, drought management strategies, and their evolution. Despite growing risks, management remains fragmented and short-term. However, signs of improvement suggest readiness for change. We advocate for a European Drought Directive.
Elin Stenfors, Malgorzata Blicharska, Thomas Grabs, and Claudia Teutschbein
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 3809–3832, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3809-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3809-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Through a survey involving six water-dependent sectors, the relevance and impact of drought vulnerability factors for sectors and societies in forested cold climates were studied. Results show that the relevance and impact of vulnerability factors differ across sectors and how governance processes and policies are important for drought risk. Results offer unique insights into the dynamics of drought vulnerability that are valuable for risk assessment, drought plans, and increasing resilience.
Claudia Teutschbein, Thomas Grabs, Markus Giese, Andrijana Todorović, and Roland Barthel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2541–2564, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2541-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2541-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study is an exploration of how droughts develop and spread in high-latitude regions, focusing on the unique conditions found in areas like Scandinavia. It reveals that droughts affect soil, rivers, and groundwater differently, depending on such factors as land cover, water availability, and soil properties. The findings highlight the importance of tailored water management strategies to protect resources and ecosystems in these regions, especially as climate change continues to affect weather patterns.
Anne F. Van Loon, Sarra Kchouk, Alessia Matanó, Faranak Tootoonchi, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Khalid E. A. Hassaballah, Minchao Wu, Marthe L. K. Wens, Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Elena Ridolfi, Riccardo Biella, Viorica Nagavciuc, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Ana Bastos, Louise Cavalcante, Franciska T. de Vries, Margaret Garcia, Johanna Mård, Ileen N. Streefkerk, Claudia Teutschbein, Roshanak Tootoonchi, Ruben Weesie, Valentin Aich, Juan P. Boisier, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Yiheng Du, Mauricio Galleguillos, René Garreaud, Monica Ionita, Sina Khatami, Johanna K. L. Koehler, Charles H. Luce, Shreedhar Maskey, Heidi D. Mendoza, Moses N. Mwangi, Ilias G. Pechlivanidis, Germano G. Ribeiro Neto, Tirthankar Roy, Robert Stefanski, Patricia Trambauer, Elizabeth A. Koebele, Giulia Vico, and Micha Werner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3173–3205, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3173-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3173-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Drought is a creeping phenomenon but is often still analysed and managed like an isolated event, without taking into account what happened before and after. Here, we review the literature and analyse five cases to discuss how droughts and their impacts develop over time. We find that the responses of hydrological, ecological, and social systems can be classified into four types and that the systems interact. We provide suggestions for further research and monitoring, modelling, and management.
Riccardo Biella, Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Ilias Pechlivanidis, Daniela Cid, Maria Carmen Llasat, Marthe Wens, Marleen Lam, Elin Stenfors, Samuel Sutanto, Elena Ridolfi, Serena Ceola, Pedro Alencar, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Monica Ionita, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Scott J. McGrane, Benedetta Moccia, Viorica Nagavciuc, Fabio Russo, Svitlana Krakovska, Andrijana Todorovic, Faranak Tootoonchi, Patricia Trambauer, Raffaele Vignola, and Claudia Teutschbein
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2073, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2073, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This research by the Drought in the Anthropocene (DitA) network highlights the crucial role of forecasting systems and Drought Management Plans in European drought risk management. Based on a survey of water managers during the 2022 European drought, it underscores the impact of preparedness on response and the evolution of drought management strategies across the continent. The study concludes with a plea for a European Drought Directive.
Riccardo Biella, Ansastasiya Shyrokaya, Monica Ionita, Raffaele Vignola, Samuel Sutanto, Andrijana Todorovic, Claudia Teutschbein, Daniela Cid, Maria Carmen Llasat, Pedro Alencar, Alessia Matanó, Elena Ridolfi, Benedetta Moccia, Ilias Pechlivanidis, Anne van Loon, Doris Wendt, Elin Stenfors, Fabio Russo, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Lucy Barker, Mariana Madruga de Brito, Marleen Lam, Monika Bláhová, Patricia Trambauer, Raed Hamed, Scott J. McGrane, Serena Ceola, Sigrid Jørgensen Bakke, Svitlana Krakovska, Viorica Nagavciuc, Faranak Tootoonchi, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Sandra Hauswirth, Shreedhar Maskey, Svitlana Zubkovych, Marthe Wens, and Lena Merete Tallaksen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2069, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2069, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This research by the Drought in the Anthropocene (DitA) network highlights gaps in European drought management exposed by the 2022 drought and proposes a new direction. Using a Europe-wide survey of water managers, we examine four areas: increasing drought risk, impacts, drought management strategies, and their evolution. Despite growing risks, management remains fragmented and short-term. However, signs of improvement suggest readiness for change. We advocate for a European Drought Directive.
Chandni Thakur, Kasiapillai Sudalaimuthu Kasiviswanathan, Claudia Teutschbein, Bankaru-Swamy Soundharajan, M M Diwan Mohaideen, and Venkatesh Budamala
Proc. IAHS, 385, 203–209, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-385-203-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-385-203-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study focuses on advancing the current understanding of the impacts of the El Niño events on the hydrology of the Godavari River Basin (GRB). Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model was employed to assess the hydrological changes and found a negative correlation of average precipitation, abstractions, and soil moisture with increasing magnitude of El Niño events for the period 1980–2008.
Veit Blauhut, Michael Stoelzle, Lauri Ahopelto, Manuela I. Brunner, Claudia Teutschbein, Doris E. Wendt, Vytautas Akstinas, Sigrid J. Bakke, Lucy J. Barker, Lenka Bartošová, Agrita Briede, Carmelo Cammalleri, Ksenija Cindrić Kalin, Lucia De Stefano, Miriam Fendeková, David C. Finger, Marijke Huysmans, Mirjana Ivanov, Jaak Jaagus, Jiří Jakubínský, Svitlana Krakovska, Gregor Laaha, Monika Lakatos, Kiril Manevski, Mathias Neumann Andersen, Nina Nikolova, Marzena Osuch, Pieter van Oel, Kalina Radeva, Renata J. Romanowicz, Elena Toth, Mirek Trnka, Marko Urošev, Julia Urquijo Reguera, Eric Sauquet, Aleksandra Stevkov, Lena M. Tallaksen, Iryna Trofimova, Anne F. Van Loon, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Niko Wanders, Micha Werner, Patrick Willems, and Nenad Živković
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2201–2217, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2201-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2201-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Recent drought events caused enormous damage in Europe. We therefore questioned the existence and effect of current drought management strategies on the actual impacts and how drought is perceived by relevant stakeholders. Over 700 participants from 28 European countries provided insights into drought hazard and impact perception and current management strategies. The study concludes with an urgent need to collectively combat drought risk via a European macro-level drought governance approach.
Cited articles
Adger, W. N.: Vulnerability, Global Environ. Chang., 16, 268–281, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.02.006, 2006.
Ahopelto, L., Veijalainen, N., Guillaume, J. H. A., Keskinen, M., Marttunen, M., and Varis, O.: Can there be water scarcity with abundance of water? Analyzing water stress during a severe drought in Finland, Sustainability, 11, 1548, https://doi.org/10.3390/su11061548, 2019.
Beck, H. E., Zimmermann, N. E., McVicar, T. R., Vergopolan, N., Berg, A., and Wood, E. F.: Present and future Köppen-Geiger climate classification maps at 1-km resolution, Sci, Data, 5, 180214, https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2018.214, 2018.
Beyene, T. K., Agarwal, A., Jain, M. K., and Yadav, B. K.: Hydrological drought vulnerability assessment in Ethiopia using multi-criteria decision-making, AQUA – Water Infrastructure, Ecosystems and Society, 74, 36–53, https://doi.org/10.2166/aqua.2024.146, 2025.
Blauhut, V., Stahl, K., Stagge, J. H., Tallaksen, L. M., De Stefano, L., and Vogt, J.: Estimating drought risk across Europe from reported drought impacts, drought indices, and vulnerability factors, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2779–2800,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2779-2016, 2016.
Bretan, E. and Engle, N. L.: Drought Preparedness Policies and Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience Measures in Brazil: An Institutional Change Assessment, in: Evaluating Climate Change Action for Sustainable Development, edited by: Uitto, J. I., Puri, J., and Van Den Berg, R. D., Springer International Publishing, Cham, 305–326, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-43702-6_17, 2017.
Ciurean, R., Schröter, D., and Glade, T.: Conceptual Frameworks of Vulnerability Assessments for Natural Disasters Reduction, in: Approaches to Disaster Management – Examining the Implications of Hazards, Emergencies and Disasters, edited by: Tiefenbacher, J., InTech, https://doi.org/10.5772/55538, 2013.
Falkenmark, M. and Rockström, J.: The New Blue and Green Water Paradigm: Breaking New Ground for Water Resources Planning and Management, J. Water Res. Plan. Man., 132, 129–132, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(2006)132:3(129), 2006.
Famiglietti, J. S.: The global groundwater crisis, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 945–948, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2425, 2014.
Faranda, D., Pascale, S., and Bulut, B.: Persistent anticyclonic conditions and climate change exacerbated the exceptional 2022 European-Mediterranean drought, Environ. Res. Lett., 18, 034030, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acbc37, 2023.
Füssel, H.-M.: Vulnerability: A generally applicable conceptual framework for climate change research, Global Environ. Chang., 17, 155–167, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.05.002, 2007.
Hagenlocher, M., Meza, I., Anderson, C. C., Min, A., Renaud, F. G., Walz, Y., Siebert, S., and Sebesvari, Z.: Drought vulnerability and risk assessments: state of the art, persistent gaps, and research agenda, Environ. Res. Lett., 14, 083002, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab225d, 2019.
IPCC: Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability: contribution of Working Group II to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Parry, M. L., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., New York, 976 pp., ISBN 9780521705974, 2007.
IPCC: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 1st Edn., Cambridge University Press, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009325844, 2023.
IPCC, Field, C. B., Barros, V. R., Dokken, D. J., Mach, K. J., Mastrandrea, M. D., Bilir, T. E., Chatterjee, M., Ebi, K. L., Estrada, Y. O., Genova, R. C., Girma, B., Kissel, E. S., Levy, A. N., MacCracken, S., Mastrandrea, P. R., and White, L. L. (Eds.): Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability: Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects: Working Group II contribution to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, New York, NY, 1132 pp., 2014.
Kassambara A.: rstatix: Pipe-Friendly Framework for Basic Statistical Tests, R package version 0.7.2, CRAN [code], https://doi.org/10.32614/CRAN.package.rstatix, 2023.
Kim, H., Park, J., Yoo, J., and Kim, T.-W.: Assessment of drought hazard, vulnerability, and risk: A case study for administrative districts in South Korea, J. Hydro-Environ. Res., 9, 28–35, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jher.2013.07.003, 2015.
Medel, K., Kousar, R., and Masood, T.: A collaboration–resilience framework for disaster management supply networks: a case study of the Philippines, Journal of Humanitarian Logistics and Supply Chain Management, 10, 509–553, https://doi.org/10.1108/JHLSCM-09-2019-0066, 2020.
Meza, I., Hagenlocher, M., Naumann, G., Vogt, J., and Frischen, J.: Drought vulnerability indicators for global-scale drought risk assessments: global expert survey results report, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, https://doi.org/10.2760/73844, Report number EUR 29824 EN, 56 pages, 2019.
Mishra, A. K. and Singh, V. P.: A review of drought concepts, J. Hydrol., 391, 202–216, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.07.012, 2010.
Pandey, R. P., Pandey, A., Galkate, R. V., Byun, H.-R., and Mal, B. C.: Integrating Hydro-Meteorological and Physiographic Factors for Assessment of Vulnerability to Drought, Water Resour. Manage., 24, 4199–4217, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-010-9653-5, 2010.
Pedersen, T.: ggforce: Accelerating 'ggplot2', R package version 0.5.0, CRAN [code], https://doi.org/10.32614/CRAN.package.ggforce, 2025.
R Core Team: R: A Language and Environment for Statistical computing, R Foundation for Statistical Computing [code], https://www.R-project.org/, (last access: 10 April 2024).
Rossi, L., Wens, M., De Moel, H., Cotti, D., Sabino Siemons, A., Toreti, A., Maetens, W., Masante, D., Van Loon, A., Hagenlocher, M., Rudari, R., Naumann, G., Meroni, M., Avanzi, F., Isabellon, M., and Barbosa, P.,: European drought risk atlas, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxemburg, 108, JRC135215, https://doi.org/10.2760/608737, 2023.
Sebesvari, Z., Renaud, F. G., Haas, S., Tessler, Z., Hagenlocher, M., Kloos, J., Szabo, S., Tejedor, A., and Kuenzer, C.: A review of vulnerability indicators for deltaic social–ecological systems, Sustain. Sci., 11, 575–590, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-016-0366-4, 2016.
Sivakumar, M. V. K., Stefanski, R., Bazza, M., Zelaya, S., Wilhite, D., and Magalhaes, A. R.: High Level meeting on national drought policy: Summary and major outcomes, Weather and Climate Extremes, 3, 126–132, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2014.03.007, 2014.
Stenfors, E., Blicharska, M., Grabs, T., and Teutschbein, C.: Droughts in forested ecoregions in cold and continental climates: A review of vulnerability concepts and factors in socio-hydrological systems, WIREs Water, 11, e1692, https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1692, 2024.
Stenfors, E., Blicharska, M., Grabs, T., and Teutschbein, C.: Multi-sectoral and systemic drought risk in forested cold climates: stakeholder-informed vulnerability factors from Sweden, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 3809–3832, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-3809-2025, 2025.
Stephan, R., Terzi, S., Erfurt, M., Cocuccioni, S., Stahl, K., and Zebisch, M.: Assessing agriculture's vulnerability to drought in European pre-Alpine regions, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 45–64, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-45-2023, 2023.
Teutschbein, C., Quesada Montano, B., Todorović, A., and Grabs, T.: Streamflow droughts in Sweden: Spatiotemporal patterns emerging from six decades of observations, Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 42, 101171, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101171, 2022.
Thomas, T., Nayak, P. C., and Ventakesh, B.: Integrated assessment of drought vulnerability for water resources management of Bina basin in Central India, Environ. Monit. Assess., 194, 621, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-022-10300-8, 2022.
Turner II, B. L., Kasperson, R. E., Matson, P. A., McCarthy, J. J., Corell, R. W., Christensen, L., Eckley, N., Kasperson, J. X., Luers, A., Martello, M. L., Polsky, C., Pulsipher, A., and Schiller, A.: A framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 100, 8074–8079, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1231335100, 2003.
UNDRR: Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030, Proceedings of the 3rd United Nations World Conference on DRR, Sendai, Japan., Vol. 1, https://www.undrr.org/publication/sendai-framework-disaster-risk-reduction-2015-2030 (last access: 10 June 2025), 2015.
UNDRR: Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2019, United Nations, eISBN 978-92-1-004180-5, 2019.
UNDRR: Special report on drought 2021, United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva, 173 pp., ISBN 9789212320274, 2021.
van den Brand, T.: ggh4x: Hacks for ’ggplot2’, R package version 0.3.0, CRAN [code], https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=ggh4x (last access: 7 January 2025), 2024.
Van Loon, A. F.: Hydrological drought explained, WIREs Water, 2, 359–392, https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1085, 2015.
Wickham, H.: ggplot2: Elegant Graphics for Data Analysis, Springer-Verlag, New York, USA, ISBN 978-3-319-24277-4, 2016.
Wickham, H., François, R., Henry, L., Müller, K., Vaughan D.: dplyr: A Grammar of Data Manipulation, R package version 1.1.4, CRAN [code], https://doi.org/10.32614/CRAN.package.dplyr, 2023.
Wilhite, D. A., Sivakumar, M. V. K., and Pulwarty, R.: Managing drought risk in a changing climate: The role of national drought policy, Weather and Climate Extremes, 3, 4–13, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2014.01.002, 2014.
Short summary
Utilizing a survey that includes respondents from seven societal sectors, the role of water dependency in drought vulnerability was explored. Differences were found in the perceived impact of vulnerability factors on drought risk in relation to water dependency (i.e., dependency on either soil moisture or groundwater and surface water). The results highlight the importance of accounting for water dependency and clearly defining the drought hazard in drought vulnerability or risk assessments.
Utilizing a survey that includes respondents from seven societal sectors, the role of water...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint