Articles | Volume 25, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-335-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-335-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Multi-scale hydraulic graph neural networks for flood modelling
Roberto Bentivoglio
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Water Management, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, Delft, the Netherlands
Elvin Isufi
Department of Intelligent Systems, Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Mathematics and Computer Science, Delft University of Technology, Delft, the Netherlands
Sebastiaan Nicolas Jonkman
Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, Delft, the Netherlands
Riccardo Taormina
Department of Water Management, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, Delft, the Netherlands
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This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
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Obtaining probabilistic flood maps with numerical models is very time-consuming. Deep learning models can speed this up, but their predictions are hard to verify without reference data, and they ignore structures like dikes or canals. This work introduces a mass-based validation measure to assess prediction plausibility and adapts a graph-based model to include hydraulic structures, enabling realistic, large-scale probabilistic flood mapping in the Netherlands.
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Deep learning methods have been increasingly used in flood management to improve traditional techniques. While promising results have been obtained, our review shows significant challenges in building deep learning models that can (i) generalize across multiple scenarios, (ii) account for complex interactions, and (iii) perform probabilistic predictions. We argue that these shortcomings could be addressed by transferring recent fundamental advancements in deep learning to flood mapping.
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Obtaining probabilistic flood maps with numerical models is very time-consuming. Deep learning models can speed this up, but their predictions are hard to verify without reference data, and they ignore structures like dikes or canals. This work introduces a mass-based validation measure to assess prediction plausibility and adapts a graph-based model to include hydraulic structures, enabling realistic, large-scale probabilistic flood mapping in the Netherlands.
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To overcome the computational cost of numerical models, we propose a deep-learning approach inspired by hydraulic models that can simulate the spatio-temporal evolution of floods. We show that the model can rapidly predict dike breach floods over different topographies and breach locations, with limited use of ground-truth data.
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Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
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Deep Learning methods have been increasingly used in flood mapping as an alternative to traditional modeling techniques. While promising results have been obtained, our review shows significant challenges in building Deep Learning models that can generalize across multiple scenarios, account for complex interactions, and provide probabilistic predictions. We argue that these shortcomings could be addressed by transferring recent fundamental advancements in Deep Learning.
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Short summary
Deep learning methods are increasingly used as surrogates for spatio-temporal flood models but struggle with generalization and speed. Here, we propose a multi-resolution approach using graph neural networks that predicts dike breach floods across different meshes, topographies, and boundary conditions with high accuracy and up to 1000× speed-ups. The model also generalizes to larger more complex case studies with just one additional simulation for fine-tuning.
Deep learning methods are increasingly used as surrogates for spatio-temporal flood models but...
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