Articles | Volume 25, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3161-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3161-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
09 Sep 2025
Research article |
| 09 Sep 2025
| 09 Sep 2025
Climate change impacts on floods in West Africa: new insight from two large-scale hydrological models
Serigne Bassirou Diop
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Laboratoire Leïdi “Dynamique des Territoires et Développement”, Univ. Gaston Berger, Saint-Louis, Senegal
Job Ekolu
Centre for Agroecology, Water and Resilience, Coventry University, Coventry, UK
Water for Production Department, Ministry of Water and Environment, Uganda
Yves Tramblay
Espace-Dev, Univ. Montpellier, IRD, Montpellier, France
Bastien Dieppois
Centre for Agroecology, Water and Resilience, Coventry University, Coventry, UK
Stefania Grimaldi
European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy
Ansoumana Bodian
Laboratoire Leïdi “Dynamique des Territoires et Développement”, Univ. Gaston Berger, Saint-Louis, Senegal
Juliette Blanchet
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, Grenoble, France
Ponnambalam Rameshwaran
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, UK
Peter Salamon
European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy
Benjamin Sultan
Espace-Dev, Univ. Montpellier, IRD, Montpellier, France
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Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 30, 163–181, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-163-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-30-163-2026, 2026
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Yves Tramblay, Guillaume Thirel, Laurent Strohmenger, Guillaume Evin, Lola Corre, Louis Heraut, and Eric Sauquet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 7023–7039, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-7023-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-7023-2025, 2025
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EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3553, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3553, 2025
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John Robotham, Emily Trill, James Blake, Ponnambalam Rameshwaran, Peter Scarlett, Gareth Old, and Joanna Clark
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 4277–4291, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-4277-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-4277-2025, 2025
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Sebastian Berghald, Juliette Blanchet, Antoine Blanc, and David Penot
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Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1095–1112, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1095-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1095-2025, 2025
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Sivarama Krishna Reddy Chidepudi, Nicolas Massei, Abderrahim Jardani, Bastien Dieppois, Abel Henriot, and Matthieu Fournier
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 29, 841–861, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-841-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-841-2025, 2025
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Andrea Betterle and Peter Salamon
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The study proposes a new framework, named FLEXTH, to estimate flood water depth and improve satellite-based flood monitoring using topographical data. FLEXTH is readily available as a computer code, offering a practical and scalable solution for estimating flood depth quickly and systematically over large areas. The methodology can reduce the impacts of floods and enhance emergency response efforts, particularly where resources are limited.
Margarita Choulga, Francesca Moschini, Cinzia Mazzetti, Stefania Grimaldi, Juliana Disperati, Hylke Beck, Peter Salamon, and Christel Prudhomme
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 2991–3036, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2991-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2991-2024, 2024
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CEMS_SurfaceFields_2022 dataset is a new set of high-resolution maps for land type (e.g. lake, forest), soil properties and population water needs at approximately 2 and 6 km at the Equator, covering Europe and the globe (excluding Antarctica). We describe what and how new high-resolution information can be used to create the dataset. The paper suggests that the dataset can be used as input for river, weather or other models, as well as for statistical descriptions of the region of interest.
Ansoumana Bodian, Papa Malick Ndiaye, Serigne Bassirou Diop, Lamine Diop, Alain Dezetter, Andrew Ogilvie, and Koffi Djaman
Proc. IAHS, 385, 415–421, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-385-415-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-385-415-2024, 2024
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Reference evapotranspiration (ET0) is an essential parameter for hydrological modeling, irrigation planning and for studying the impacts of climate change on water resources. This work evaluate 20 alternative methods of estimating ET0 in order to adapt them to the climatic context of the 3 mains basins of Senegal where very little climate data is available. The methods of Valiantzas 1, Doorenboss & Pruitt and Penman are the most robust for the estimation of ET0 in this context.
Papa Malick Ndiaye, Ansoumana Bodian, Serigne Bassirou Diop, Lamine Diop, Alain Dezetter, Andrew Ogilvie, and Koffi Djaman
Proc. IAHS, 385, 305–311, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-385-305-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-385-305-2024, 2024
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The analyze of the trends of ET0 at the scale of the Senegal, Gambia and Casamance river basins using reanalyze data of NASA/POWER over 1984–2019 shows that ET0 increases significantly in 32% of the Senegal basin and decreases in less than 1% of it. In the Casamance and Gambia basins, the annual ET0 drops by 65% and 18%, respectively. Temperature and relative humidity show an increasing trend over all basins while wind speed and radiation decrease, confirming the so-called "evaporation paradox".
Laurent Pascal Diémé, Christophe Bouvier, Ansoumana Bodian, and Alpha Sidibé
Proc. IAHS, 385, 175–180, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-385-175-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-385-175-2024, 2024
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This study aims at proposing a modelling of flows and overflows of structures at fine resolution (5 m) for rainfall intensities of different return periods. The overflow points of the network are identified by the difference between the maximum flow and the capacity of the network to evacuate floods. The results of the simulations show that the drainage network appears to be overflowing for rare frequency rainfall events (100 years). The method seems adaptable to different contexts.
Nils Poncet, Philippe Lucas-Picher, Yves Tramblay, Guillaume Thirel, Humberto Vergara, Jonathan Gourley, and Antoinette Alias
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1163–1183, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1163-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1163-2024, 2024
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High-resolution convection-permitting climate models (CPMs) are now available to better simulate rainstorm events leading to flash floods. In this study, two hydrological models are compared to simulate floods in a Mediterranean basin, showing a better ability of the CPM to reproduce flood peaks compared to coarser-resolution climate models. Future projections are also different, with a projected increase for the most severe floods and a potential decrease for the most frequent events.
Lorenzo Alfieri, Andrea Libertino, Lorenzo Campo, Francesco Dottori, Simone Gabellani, Tatiana Ghizzoni, Alessandro Masoero, Lauro Rossi, Roberto Rudari, Nicola Testa, Eva Trasforini, Ahmed Amdihun, Jully Ouma, Luca Rossi, Yves Tramblay, Huan Wu, and Marco Massabò
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 199–224, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-199-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-199-2024, 2024
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This work describes Flood-PROOFS East Africa, an impact-based flood forecasting system for the Greater Horn of Africa. It is based on hydrological simulations, inundation mapping, and estimation of population and assets exposed to upcoming river floods. The system supports duty officers in African institutions in the daily monitoring of hydro-meteorological disasters. A first evaluation shows the system performance for the catastrophic floods in the Nile River basin in summer 2020.
Erwan Le Roux, Guillaume Evin, Raphaëlle Samacoïts, Nicolas Eckert, Juliette Blanchet, and Samuel Morin
The Cryosphere, 17, 4691–4704, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4691-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4691-2023, 2023
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We assess projected changes in snowfall extremes in the French Alps as a function of elevation and global warming level for a high-emission scenario. On average, heavy snowfall is projected to decrease below 3000 m and increase above 3600 m, while extreme snowfall is projected to decrease below 2400 m and increase above 3300 m. At elevations in between, an increase is projected until +3 °C of global warming and then a decrease. These results have implications for the management of risks.
Florian Roth, Bernhard Bauer-Marschallinger, Mark Edwin Tupas, Christoph Reimer, Peter Salamon, and Wolfgang Wagner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3305–3317, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3305-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3305-2023, 2023
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In August and September 2022, millions of people were impacted by a severe flood event in Pakistan. Since many roads and other infrastructure were destroyed, satellite data were the only way of providing large-scale information on the flood's impact. Based on the flood mapping algorithm developed at Technische Universität Wien (TU Wien), we mapped an area of 30 492 km2 that was flooded at least once during the study's time period. This affected area matches about the total area of Belgium.
Juliette Blanchet, Alix Reverdy, Antoine Blanc, Jean-Dominique Creutin, Périne Kiennemann, and Guillaume Evin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-197, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-197, 2023
Revised manuscript not accepted
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The Alpine region is strongly affected by torrential floods, sometimes leading to severe negative impacts on society, economy, and the environment. Understanding such natural hazards and their drivers is essential to mitigate related risks. In this article we study the atmospheric conditions at the origin of damaging torrential events in the Northern French Alps over the long run, using a database of reported occurrence of damaging torrential flooding in the Grenoble conurbation since 1851.
Laurent Strohmenger, Eric Sauquet, Claire Bernard, Jérémie Bonneau, Flora Branger, Amélie Bresson, Pierre Brigode, Rémy Buzier, Olivier Delaigue, Alexandre Devers, Guillaume Evin, Maïté Fournier, Shu-Chen Hsu, Sandra Lanini, Alban de Lavenne, Thibault Lemaitre-Basset, Claire Magand, Guilherme Mendoza Guimarães, Max Mentha, Simon Munier, Charles Perrin, Tristan Podechard, Léo Rouchy, Malak Sadki, Myriam Soutif-Bellenger, François Tilmant, Yves Tramblay, Anne-Lise Véron, Jean-Philippe Vidal, and Guillaume Thirel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 3375–3391, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3375-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-3375-2023, 2023
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We present the results of a large visual inspection campaign of 674 streamflow time series in France. The objective was to detect non-natural records resulting from instrument failure or anthropogenic influences, such as hydroelectric power generation or reservoir management. We conclude that the identification of flaws in flow time series is highly dependent on the objectives and skills of individual evaluators, and we raise the need for better practices for data cleaning.
Yves Tramblay, Patrick Arnaud, Guillaume Artigue, Michel Lang, Emmanuel Paquet, Luc Neppel, and Eric Sauquet
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2973–2987, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2973-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2973-2023, 2023
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Mediterranean floods are causing major damage, and recent studies have shown that, despite the increase in intense rainfall, there has been no increase in river floods. This study reveals that the seasonality of floods changed in the Mediterranean Basin during 1959–2021. There was also an increased frequency of floods linked to short episodes of intense rain, associated with a decrease in soil moisture. These changes need to be taken into consideration to adapt flood warning systems.
Carolina Gallo, Jonathan M. Eden, Bastien Dieppois, Igor Drobyshev, Peter Z. Fulé, Jesús San-Miguel-Ayanz, and Matthew Blackett
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3103–3122, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3103-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3103-2023, 2023
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This study conducts the first global evaluation of the latest generation of global climate models to simulate a set of fire weather indicators from the Canadian Fire Weather Index System. Models are shown to perform relatively strongly at the global scale, but they show substantial regional and seasonal differences. The results demonstrate the value of model evaluation and selection in producing reliable fire danger projections, ultimately to support decision-making and forest management.
Juliette Blanchet, Alix Reverdy, Antoine Blanc, Jean-Dominique Creutin, Périne Kiennemann, and Guillaume Evin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-276, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-276, 2023
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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We study the atmospheric conditions at the origin of damaging torrential events in the Northern French Alps over the long run. We consider seven atmospheric variables that describe the nature of the air masses involved and the possible triggers of precipitation and we try to isolate the most discriminating variables. The results show that humidity and particularly humidity transport plays the greatest role under westerly flows while instability potential is mostly at play under southerly flows.
Shaun Harrigan, Ervin Zsoter, Hannah Cloke, Peter Salamon, and Christel Prudhomme
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 1–19, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-1-2023, 2023
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Real-time river discharge forecasts and reforecasts from the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) have been made publicly available, together with an evaluation of forecast skill at the global scale. Results show that GloFAS is skillful in over 93 % of catchments in the short (1–3 d) and medium range (5–15 d) and skillful in over 80 % of catchments in the extended lead time (16–30 d). Skill is summarised in a new layer on the GloFAS Web Map Viewer to aid decision-making.
Vera Thiemig, Goncalo N. Gomes, Jon O. Skøien, Markus Ziese, Armin Rauthe-Schöch, Elke Rustemeier, Kira Rehfeldt, Jakub P. Walawender, Christine Kolbe, Damien Pichon, Christoph Schweim, and Peter Salamon
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 3249–3272, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-3249-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-3249-2022, 2022
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EMO-5 is a free and open European high-resolution (5 km), sub-daily, multi-variable (precipitation, temperatures, wind speed, solar radiation, vapour pressure), multi-decadal meteorological dataset based on quality-controlled observations coming from almost 30 000 stations across Europe, and is produced in near real-time. EMO-5 (v1) covers the time period from 1990 to 2019. In this paper, we have provided insight into the source data, the applied methods, and the quality assessment of EMO-5.
Erwan Le Roux, Guillaume Evin, Nicolas Eckert, Juliette Blanchet, and Samuel Morin
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1059–1075, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1059-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1059-2022, 2022
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Anticipating risks related to climate extremes is critical for societal adaptation to climate change. In this study, we propose a statistical method in order to estimate future climate extremes from past observations and an ensemble of climate change simulations. We apply this approach to snow load data available in the French Alps at 1500 m elevation and find that extreme snow load is projected to decrease by −2.9 kN m−2 (−50 %) between 1986–2005 and 2080–2099 for a high-emission scenario.
Abubakar Haruna, Juliette Blanchet, and Anne-Catherine Favre
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2797–2811, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2797-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2797-2022, 2022
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Reliable prediction of floods depends on the quality of the input data such as precipitation. However, estimation of precipitation from the local measurements is known to be difficult, especially for extremes. Regionalization improves the estimates by increasing the quantity of data available for estimation. Here, we compare three regionalization methods based on their robustness and reliability. We apply the comparison to a dense network of daily stations within and outside Switzerland.
Yves Tramblay and Pere Quintana Seguí
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1325–1334, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1325-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1325-2022, 2022
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Monitoring soil moisture is important during droughts, but very few measurements are available. Consequently, land-surface models are essential tools for reproducing soil moisture dynamics. In this study, a hybrid approach allowed for regionalizing soil water content using a machine learning method. This approach proved to be efficient, compared to the use of soil property maps, to run a simple soil moisture accounting model, and therefore it can be applied in various regions.
Francesco Dottori, Lorenzo Alfieri, Alessandra Bianchi, Jon Skoien, and Peter Salamon
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 1549–1569, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1549-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-1549-2022, 2022
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We present a set of hazard maps for river flooding for Europe and the Mediterranean basin. The maps depict inundation extent and depth for flood probabilities for up to 1-in-500-year flood hazards and are based on hydrological and hydrodynamic models driven by observed climatology. The maps can identify two-thirds of the flood extent reported by official flood maps, with increasing skill for higher-magnitude floods. The maps are used for evaluating present and future impacts of river floods.
Antoine Blanc, Juliette Blanchet, and Jean-Dominique Creutin
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 231–250, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-231-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-231-2022, 2022
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Precipitation variability and extremes in the northern French Alps are governed by the atmospheric circulation over western Europe. In this work, we study the past evolution of western Europe large-scale circulation using atmospheric descriptors. We show some discrepancies in the trends obtained from different reanalyses before 1950. After 1950, we find trends in Mediterranean circulations that appear to be linked with trends in seasonal and extreme precipitation in the northern French Alps.
Ernest Amoussou, Gil Mahe, Oula Amrouni, Ansoumana Bodian, Christophe Cudennec, Stephan Dietrich, Domiho Japhet Kodja, and Expédit Wilfrid Vissin
Proc. IAHS, 384, 1–4, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-384-1-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-384-1-2021, 2021
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This short paper is the preface of the PIAHS volume of the IAHS/UNESCO FRIEND-Water conference of Cotonou in November 2021.
Manuel Fossa, Bastien Dieppois, Nicolas Massei, Matthieu Fournier, Benoit Laignel, and Jean-Philippe Vidal
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5683–5702, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5683-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5683-2021, 2021
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Hydro-climate observations (such as precipitation, temperature, and river discharge time series) reveal very complex behavior inherited from complex interactions among the physical processes that drive hydro-climate viability. This study shows how even small perturbations of a physical process can have large consequences on some others. Those interactions vary spatially, thus showing the importance of both temporal and spatial dimensions in better understanding hydro-climate variability.
Erwan Le Roux, Guillaume Evin, Nicolas Eckert, Juliette Blanchet, and Samuel Morin
The Cryosphere, 15, 4335–4356, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4335-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4335-2021, 2021
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Extreme snowfall can cause major natural hazards (avalanches, winter storms) that can generate casualties and economic damage. In the French Alps, we show that between 1959 and 2019 extreme snowfall mainly decreased below 2000 m of elevation and increased above 2000 m. At 2500 m, we find a contrasting pattern: extreme snowfall decreased in the north, while it increased in the south. This pattern might be related to increasing trends in extreme snowfall observed near the Mediterranean Sea.
Yves Tramblay, Nathalie Rouché, Jean-Emmanuel Paturel, Gil Mahé, Jean-François Boyer, Ernest Amoussou, Ansoumana Bodian, Honoré Dacosta, Hamouda Dakhlaoui, Alain Dezetter, Denis Hughes, Lahoucine Hanich, Christophe Peugeot, Raphael Tshimanga, and Patrick Lachassagne
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 1547–1560, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1547-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-1547-2021, 2021
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This dataset provides a set of hydrometric indices for about 1500 stations across Africa with daily discharge data. These indices represent mean flow characteristics and extremes (low flows and floods), allowing us to study the long-term evolution of hydrology in Africa and support the modeling efforts that aim at reducing the vulnerability of African countries to hydro-climatic variability.
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Short summary
West Africa is very vulnerable to river floods. Current flood hazards are poorly understood due to limited data. This study is filling this knowledge gap using recent databases and two regional hydrological models to analyze changes in flood risk under two climate scenarios. Results show that most areas will see more frequent and severe floods, with some increasing by over 45 %. These findings stress the urgent need for climate-resilient strategies to protect communities and infrastructure.
West Africa is very vulnerable to river floods. Current flood hazards are poorly understood due...
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