Articles | Volume 25, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3161-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-3161-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Climate change impacts on floods in West Africa: new insight from two large-scale hydrological models
Serigne Bassirou Diop
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Laboratoire Leïdi “Dynamique des Territoires et Développement”, Univ. Gaston Berger, Saint-Louis, Senegal
Job Ekolu
Centre for Agroecology, Water and Resilience, Coventry University, Coventry, UK
Water for Production Department, Ministry of Water and Environment, Uganda
Yves Tramblay
Espace-Dev, Univ. Montpellier, IRD, Montpellier, France
Bastien Dieppois
Centre for Agroecology, Water and Resilience, Coventry University, Coventry, UK
Stefania Grimaldi
European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy
Ansoumana Bodian
Laboratoire Leïdi “Dynamique des Territoires et Développement”, Univ. Gaston Berger, Saint-Louis, Senegal
Juliette Blanchet
Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, Grenoble INP, IGE, Grenoble, France
Ponnambalam Rameshwaran
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, UK
Peter Salamon
European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy
Benjamin Sultan
Espace-Dev, Univ. Montpellier, IRD, Montpellier, France
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Cited
9 citations as recorded by crossref.
- How do climate and land use affect structural attributes, diversity and carbon sequestration at both vegetation and species levels in West African savanna ecosystems? V. Yaro et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gecco.2026.e04056
- Integrated Analysis of Erosion and Flood Susceptibility in the Gorgol Basin, Mauritania M. Alioune et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w18010034
- Prediction of present and future flood discharges in catchments with sparse data coverage O. Şen et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-026-08105-w
- Coproduced assessments of climate change adaptation reveal equity challenges in locally led approaches B. Howard et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae63e5
- Multi-model assessment of present and future mean and extreme river flows in major West African basins M. Mbaye et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sciaf.2026.e03374
- Impacts of ecological restoration on the Water-Food-Ecosystem nexus in Africa: A systematic review of mechanisms, models, and methods Z. Wang & W. Zhao https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111719
- Assessment and Mapping of Multi-Hazard Risk for Decision Support in the Kedougou Region, Senegal (1995–2024) S. Aw et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/land15071184
- Assessment of Preventive Flood Protection Measures Implemented by Urban Households in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso K. Traoré et al. https://doi.org/10.4236/jss.2026.141020
- Challenges to food security in a changing environment: a community-based participatory research study in Casamance, Senegal (West Africa) N. Barclay-Derman et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2026.1774424
9 citations as recorded by crossref.
- How do climate and land use affect structural attributes, diversity and carbon sequestration at both vegetation and species levels in West African savanna ecosystems? V. Yaro et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gecco.2026.e04056
- Integrated Analysis of Erosion and Flood Susceptibility in the Gorgol Basin, Mauritania M. Alioune et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/w18010034
- Prediction of present and future flood discharges in catchments with sparse data coverage O. Şen et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-026-08105-w
- Coproduced assessments of climate change adaptation reveal equity challenges in locally led approaches B. Howard et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae63e5
- Multi-model assessment of present and future mean and extreme river flows in major West African basins M. Mbaye et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sciaf.2026.e03374
- Impacts of ecological restoration on the Water-Food-Ecosystem nexus in Africa: A systematic review of mechanisms, models, and methods Z. Wang & W. Zhao https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2026.111719
- Assessment and Mapping of Multi-Hazard Risk for Decision Support in the Kedougou Region, Senegal (1995–2024) S. Aw et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/land15071184
- Assessment of Preventive Flood Protection Measures Implemented by Urban Households in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso K. Traoré et al. https://doi.org/10.4236/jss.2026.141020
- Challenges to food security in a changing environment: a community-based participatory research study in Casamance, Senegal (West Africa) N. Barclay-Derman et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2026.1774424
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 07 Sep 2026
Short summary
West Africa is very vulnerable to river floods. Current flood hazards are poorly understood due to limited data. This study is filling this knowledge gap using recent databases and two regional hydrological models to analyze changes in flood risk under two climate scenarios. Results show that most areas will see more frequent and severe floods, with some increasing by over 45 %. These findings stress the urgent need for climate-resilient strategies to protect communities and infrastructure.
West Africa is very vulnerable to river floods. Current flood hazards are poorly understood due...
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