Articles | Volume 25, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2963-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2963-2025
Brief communication
 | 
04 Sep 2025
Brief communication |  | 04 Sep 2025

Brief Communication: Drivers of the recent warming of the Mediterranean Sea, and its implications for hail risk

Stephen Cusack and Tyler Cox

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Cited articles

Ali, E., Cramer, W., Carnicer, J., Georgopoulou, E., Hilmi, N. J. M., Le Cozannet, G., and Lionello, P.: Cross-Chapter Paper 4: Mediterranean Region, in: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Pörtner, H.-O., Roberts, D. C., Tignor, M., Poloczanska, E. S., Mintenbeck, K., Alegría, A., Craig, M., Langsdorf, S., Löschke, S., Möller, V., Okem, A., and Rama, B., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 2233–2272, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009325844.021, 2022. 
Battaglioli, F., Groenemeijer, P., Púčik, T., Taszarek, M., Ulbrich, U., and Rust, H.: Modeled Multidecadal Trends of Lightning and (Very) Large Hail in Europe and North America (1950–2021), J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 62, 1627–1653, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-22-0195.1, 2023. 
Berthet, C., Dessens, J., and Sanchez, J. L.: Regional and yearly variations of hail frequency and intensity in France, Atmos. Res., 100, 391–400, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2010.10.008, 2011. 
Booth, B. B. B., Dunstone, N. J., Halloran, P. R., Andrews, T., and Bellouin, N.: Aerosols implicated as a prime driver of twentieth-century North Atlantic climate variability, Nature, 484, 228–232, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature10946, 2012. 
Bunn, A., Korpela, M., Biondi, F., Campelo, F., Mérian, P., Qeadan, F., and Zang, C.: dplR: Dendrochronology Program Library in R, R package version 1.7.4, https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=dplR (last access: 31 May 2024), 2022. 
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Short summary
The Mediterranean Sea has been warming rapidly since 1980, and its basic thermodynamic effect acts to boost hail in the higher-risk parts of Europe. Climate model experiments indicate the Mediterranean warming is mainly caused by rising greenhouse gases, with reduced anthropogenic aerosols contributing too. A review of research and data revealed hail losses rising at around 2 % per year over the same period. Moreover, the trajectory of anthropogenic forcings suggests hail risk will keep rising.
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