Articles | Volume 25, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2963-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2963-2025
Brief communication
 | 
04 Sep 2025
Brief communication |  | 04 Sep 2025

Brief Communication: Drivers of the recent warming of the Mediterranean Sea, and its implications for hail risk

Stephen Cusack and Tyler Cox

Data sets

CMIP6 simulations of the CNRM-CERFACS based on CNRM-CM6-1 model for CMIP experiment historical A. Voldoire https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.4066

CNRM-CERFACS CNRM-CM6-1 model output prepared for CMIP6 DAMIP hist-GHG A. Voldoire https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.4043

CCCma CanESM5 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP historical N. C. Swart et al. https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.3610

CCCma CanESM5 model output prepared for CMIP6 DAMIP hist-GHG N. C. Swart et al. https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.3596

NASA-GISS GISS-E2.1G model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP historical NASA/GISS https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.7127

NASA-GISS GISS-E2.1G model output prepared for CMIP6 DAMIP hist-GHG NASA/GISS https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.7079

MOHC HadGEM3-GC31-LL model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP historical J. Ridley et al. https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.6109

MOHC HadGEM3-GC31-LL model output prepared for CMIP6 DAMIP hist-GHG G. Jones https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.6051

MIROC MIROC6 model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP historical H. Tatebe and M. Watanabe https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.5603

MIROC MIROC6 model output prepared for CMIP6 DAMIP hist-GHG H. Shiogama https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.5578

MPI-M MPI-ESM1.2-LR model output prepared for CMIP6 CMIP historical K.-H. Wieners et al. https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.6595

MPI-M MPI-ESM1.2-LR model output prepared for CMIP6 DAMIP hist-GHG W. Müller et al. https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/CMIP6.15022

Model code and software

Code for ``Drivers of the recent warming of the Mediterranean Sea, and its implications for hail risk'' S. Cusack https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.16738138

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Short summary
The Mediterranean Sea has been warming rapidly since 1980, and its basic thermodynamic effect acts to boost hail in the higher-risk parts of Europe. Climate model experiments indicate the Mediterranean warming is mainly caused by rising greenhouse gases, with reduced anthropogenic aerosols contributing too. A review of research and data revealed hail losses rising at around 2 % per year over the same period. Moreover, the trajectory of anthropogenic forcings suggests hail risk will keep rising.
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