Modelling flood losses of micro-businesses in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

Buch, Anna; Paprotny, Dominik; Rafiezadeh Shahi, Kasra; Kreibich, Heidi; Sairam, Nivedita

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2437-2025

Articles | Volume 25, issue 7

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2437-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2437-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 25, issue 7

Research article

|

22 Jul 2025

Research article |

| 22 Jul 2025

Modelling flood losses of micro-businesses in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

Anna Buch, Dominik Paprotny, Kasra Rafiezadeh Shahi, Heidi Kreibich, and Nivedita Sairam

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2437-2025-supplement

Data sets

HOWAS 21 GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences https://doi.org/10.1594/GFZ.SDDB.HOWAS21

Model code and software

A-Buch/flood-loss-models-4-HCMC: Code for "Modelling Flood Losses to Microbusinesses in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam" (v1.0.0) Anna Buch https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15226141

partykit: A Toolkit for Recursive Partytioning T. Hothorn et al. https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=partykit

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Short summary

Many households in Vietnam depend on revenue from micro-businesses (shop houses). However, losses caused by regular flooding are not modelled. Business turnover, building age, and water depth were found to be the main drivers of flood losses of micro-businesses. We built and validated probabilistic models (non-parametric Bayesian networks) that estimate flood losses of micro-businesses. The results help with flood risk management and adaption decision making for micro-businesses.