Articles | Volume 25, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1943-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1943-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
13 Jun 2025
Research article |
| 13 Jun 2025
| 13 Jun 2025
Estimating the mass of tephra accumulated on roads to best manage the impact of volcanic eruptions: the example of Mt Etna, Italy
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Bologna, 40100 Bologna, Italy
CETEMPS, University of L'Aquila, 67100 L'Aquila, Italy
Manuel Stocchi
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Bologna, 40100 Bologna, Italy
now at: Department of Earth and Geoenvironmental Sciences, University of Bari Aldo Moro, 70125 Bari, Italy
Alexander Garcia
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Bologna, 40100 Bologna, Italy
Michele Prestifilippo
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Osservatorio Etneo, Sezione di Catania, 95015 Catania, Italy
Laura Sandri
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Bologna, 40100 Bologna, Italy
Costanza Bonadonna
Department of Earth Sciences, University of Geneva, 1205 Geneva, Switzerland
Simona Scollo
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Osservatorio Etneo, Sezione di Catania, 95015 Catania, Italy
Related authors
No articles found.
Lucia Dominguez, Sébastien Biass, Corine Frischknecht, Alana Weir, Maria Paz Reyes-Hardy, Luigia Sara Di Maio, Nemesio Pérez, and Costanza Bonadonna
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-986, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-986, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study assess the cascading impacts of the 2021 Tajogaite eruption on La Palma, Spain. By combining forensic techniques with network analysis, this research quantifies the effects of physical damage on the road network as well as the cascading loss of functionality and systemic disruptions to emergency services, health centers, agriculture and education. Result show the relevance of redundant infrastructure and landuse on effective risk management and mitigation of future volcanic impacts.
Anna Kampouri, Vassilis Amiridis, Thanasis Georgiou, Stavros Solomos, Anna Gialitaki, Maria Tsichla, Michael Rennie, Simona Scollo, and Prodromos Zanis
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3181, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3181, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study proposes a novel inverse modeling framework coupled with remote sensing data for improving volcanic ash dispersion forecasts, essential for aviation safety. By integrating FLEXPART dispersion model outputs with ground-based ACTRIS lidar observations, the approach estimates Etna's volcanic particle emissions and highlights significant enhancement of the forecast accuracy.
Laura Sandri, Alexander Garcia, Cristina Proietti, Stefano Branca, Gaetana Ganci, and Annalisa Cappello
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4431–4455, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4431-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4431-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we propose a probability map that shows where most likely future flank eruptions will occur at Etna volcano (in Sicily, Italy). The map updates previous studies since it is based on a much longer record of past flank eruption fissures that opened in the last 4000 years on Etna. We also propose sensitivity tests to evaluate how much the assumptions made change the final probability evaluation.
María-Paz Reyes-Hardy, Luigia Sara Di Maio, Lucia Dominguez, Corine Frischknecht, Sébastien Biass, Leticia Freitas Guimarães, Amiel Nieto-Torres, Manuela Elissondo, Gabriela Pedreros, Rigoberto Aguilar, Álvaro Amigo, Sebastián García, Pablo Forte, and Costanza Bonadonna
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4267–4291, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4267-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4267-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Central Volcanic Zone of the Andes (CVZA) spans four countries with 59 volcanoes. We identify those with the most intense and frequent eruptions and the highest potential impact that require risk mitigation actions. Using multiple risk factors, we encourage the use of regional volcanic risk assessments to analyse the level of preparedness especially of transboundary volcanoes. We hope that our work will motivate further collaborative studies and promote cooperation between CVZA countries.
Simon Thivet, Gholamhossein Bagheri, Przemyslaw M. Kornatowski, Allan Fries, Jonathan Lemus, Riccardo Simionato, Carolina Díaz-Vecino, Eduardo Rossi, Taishi Yamada, Simona Scollo, and Costanza Bonadonna
Atmos. Meas. Tech. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-2024-162, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-2024-162, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for AMT
Short summary
Short summary
This work presents an innovative way of sampling and analyzing volcanic clouds using an Unoccupied Aircraft System (UAS). The UAS can reach hazardous environments to sample volcanic particles, and measure in-situ key parameters such as the atmospheric concentration of volcanic aerosols and gases. Acquired data bridge the gap between the existing approaches of ground sampling and remote sensing, hence contributing to the understanding of volcanic cloud dispersion and impact.
Laura Sandri, Mattia de' Michieli Vitturi, Antonio Costa, Mauro Antonio Di Vito, Ilaria Rucco, Domenico Maria Doronzo, Marina Bisson, Roberto Gianardi, Sandro de Vita, and Roberto Sulpizio
Solid Earth, 15, 459–476, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-15-459-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-15-459-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We study the lahar hazard due to the remobilization of tephra deposits from reference eruptions at Somma–Vesuvius. To this end, we rely on the results of two companion papers dealing with field data and model calibration and run hundreds of simulations from the catchments around the target area to capture the uncertainty in the initial parameters. We process the simulations to draw maps of the probability of overcoming thresholds in lahar flow thickness and dynamic pressure relevant for risk.
Mattia de' Michieli Vitturi, Antonio Costa, Mauro A. Di Vito, Laura Sandri, and Domenico M. Doronzo
Solid Earth, 15, 437–458, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-15-437-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-15-437-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a numerical model for lahars generated by the mobilization of tephra deposits from a reference size eruption at Somma–Vesuvius. The paper presents the model (pyhsics and numerics) and a sensitivity analysis of the processes modelled, numerical schemes, and grid resolution. This work provides the basis for application to hazard quantification for lahars in the Vesuvius area. To this end, we rely on results of the two companion papers (Part 1 on field data, Part 3 on hazard maps).
Mauro Antonio Di Vito, Ilaria Rucco, Sandro de Vita, Domenico Maria Doronzo, Marina Bisson, Mattia de' Michieli Vitturi, Mauro Rosi, Laura Sandri, Giovanni Zanchetta, Elena Zanella, and Antonio Costa
Solid Earth, 15, 405–436, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-15-405-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-15-405-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We study the distribution of two historical pyroclastic fall–flow and lahar deposits from the sub-Plinian Vesuvius eruptions of 472 CE Pollena and 1631. The motivation comes directly from the widely distributed impact that both the eruptions and lahar phenomena had on the Campanian territory, not only around the volcano but also down the nearby Apennine valleys. Data on about 500 stratigraphic sections and modeling allowed us to evaluate the physical and dynamical impact of these phenomena.
Silvia Massaro, Manuel Stocchi, Beatriz Martínez Montesinos, Laura Sandri, Jacopo Selva, Roberto Sulpizio, Biagio Giaccio, Massimiliano Moscatelli, Edoardo Peronace, Marco Nocentini, Roberto Isaia, Manuel Titos Luzón, Pierfrancesco Dellino, Giuseppe Naso, and Antonio Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2289–2311, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2289-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2289-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A new methodology to calculate a probabilistic long-term tephra fallout hazard assessment in southern Italy from the Neapolitan volcanoes is provided. By means of thousands of numerical simulations we quantify the mean annual frequency with which the tephra load at the ground exceeds critical thresholds in 50 years. The output hazard maps account for changes in eruptive regimes of each volcano and are also comparable with those of other natural disasters in which more sources are integrated.
Costanza Bonadonna, Ali Asgary, Franco Romerio, Tais Zulemyan, Corine Frischknecht, Chiara Cristiani, Mauro Rosi, Chris E. Gregg, Sebastien Biass, Marco Pistolesi, Scira Menoni, and Antonio Ricciardi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1083–1108, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1083-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1083-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Evacuation planning and management represent a key aspect of volcanic crises because they can increase people's protection as well as minimize the potential impacts on the economy, properties and infrastructure of the affected area. We present a simulation tool that assesses the effectiveness of different evacuation scenarios as well as a model to assess the economic impact of evacuation as a function of evacuation duration and starting period using the island of Vulcano (Italy) as a case study.
Frances Beckett, Eduardo Rossi, Benjamin Devenish, Claire Witham, and Costanza Bonadonna
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 3409–3431, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3409-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3409-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
As volcanic ash is transported through the atmosphere, it may collide and stick together to form aggregates. Neglecting the process of aggregation in atmospheric dispersion models could lead to inaccurate forecasts used by civil aviation for hazard assessment. We developed an aggregation scheme for use with the model NAME, which is used by the London Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre. Using our scheme, we investigate the impact of aggregation on simulations of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull ash cloud.
Manuel Titos, Beatriz Martínez Montesinos, Sara Barsotti, Laura Sandri, Arnau Folch, Leonardo Mingari, Giovanni Macedonio, and Antonio Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 139–163, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-139-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-139-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This work addresses a quantitative hazard assessment on the possible impact on air traffic of a future ash-forming eruption on the island of Jan Mayen. Through high-performance computing resources, we numerically simulate the transport of ash clouds and ash concentration at different flight levels over an area covering Iceland and the UK using the FALL3D model. This approach allows us to derive a set of probability maps explaining the extent and persisting concentration conditions of ash clouds.
Hugues Brenot, Nicolas Theys, Lieven Clarisse, Jeroen van Gent, Daniel R. Hurtmans, Sophie Vandenbussche, Nikolaos Papagiannopoulos, Lucia Mona, Timo Virtanen, Andreas Uppstu, Mikhail Sofiev, Luca Bugliaro, Margarita Vázquez-Navarro, Pascal Hedelt, Michelle Maree Parks, Sara Barsotti, Mauro Coltelli, William Moreland, Simona Scollo, Giuseppe Salerno, Delia Arnold-Arias, Marcus Hirtl, Tuomas Peltonen, Juhani Lahtinen, Klaus Sievers, Florian Lipok, Rolf Rüfenacht, Alexander Haefele, Maxime Hervo, Saskia Wagenaar, Wim Som de Cerff, Jos de Laat, Arnoud Apituley, Piet Stammes, Quentin Laffineur, Andy Delcloo, Robertson Lennart, Carl-Herbert Rokitansky, Arturo Vargas, Markus Kerschbaum, Christian Resch, Raimund Zopp, Matthieu Plu, Vincent-Henri Peuch, Michel Van Roozendael, and Gerhard Wotawa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3367–3405, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3367-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3367-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The purpose of the EUNADICS-AV (European Natural Airborne Disaster Information and Coordination System for Aviation) prototype early warning system (EWS) is to develop the combined use of harmonised data products from satellite, ground-based and in situ instruments to produce alerts of airborne hazards (volcanic, dust, smoke and radionuclide clouds), satisfying the requirement of aviation air traffic management (ATM) stakeholders (https://cordis.europa.eu/project/id/723986).
Eduardo Rossi and Costanza Bonadonna
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4379–4400, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4379-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4379-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
SCARLET-1.0 is a MATLAB package that creates virtual aggregates starting from a population of irregular shapes. Shapes are described in terms of the Standard Triangulation Language (STL) format, and this allows importing a great variety of shapes, such as from 3D scanning. The package produces a new STL file as an output and different analytical information about the packing, such as the porosity. It has been specifically designed for use in volcanology and scientific education.
Valérie Baumann, Costanza Bonadonna, Sabatino Cuomo, Mariagiovanna Moscariello, Sebastien Biass, Marco Pistolesi, and Alessandro Gattuso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2421–2449, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2421-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2421-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Lahars are fast-moving mixtures of volcanic debris and water propagating downslope on volcanoes that can be very dangerous for people and property. Identification of lahar source areas and initiation mechanisms is crucial to comprehensive lahar hazard assessment. We present the first rain-triggered lahar susceptibility map for La Fossa volcano (Vulcano, Italy) combining probabilistic tephra modelling, slope-stability modelling, precipitation data, field characterizations, and geotechnical tests.
Sara Osman, Eduardo Rossi, Costanza Bonadonna, Corine Frischknecht, Daniele Andronico, Raffaello Cioni, and Simona Scollo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 589–610, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-589-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-589-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The fallout of large clasts (> 5 cm) from the margins of eruptive plumes can damage local infrastructure and severely injure people close to the volcano. Even though this potential hazard has been observed at many volcanoes, it has often been overlooked. We present the first hazard and risk assessment of large-clast fallout from eruptive plumes and use Mt Etna (Italy) as a case study. The use of dedicated shelters in the case of an explosive event that occurs with no warning is also evaluated.
Manuela Elissondo, Valérie Baumann, Costanza Bonadonna, Marco Pistolesi, Raffaello Cioni, Antonella Bertagnini, Sébastien Biass, Juan-Carlos Herrero, and Rafael Gonzalez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 675–704, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-675-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-675-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We present a chronological reconstruction of the 2011 eruption of Puyehue-Cordón Caulle volcano (Chile) which significantly affected the ecosystem and important economic sectors. The comparison with the impact associated with other recent eruptions located in similar areas shows that the regions downwind of the erupting volcanoes suffered similar problems, suggesting that a detailed collection of impact data can be largely beneficial for the development of emergency and risk-mitigation plans.
R. Tonini, L. Sandri, A. Costa, and J. Selva
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 409–415, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-409-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-409-2015, 2015
S. Biass, C. Scaini, C. Bonadonna, A. Folch, K. Smith, and A. Höskuldsson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2265–2287, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2265-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2265-2014, 2014
C. Scaini, S. Biass, A. Galderisi, C. Bonadonna, A. Folch, K. Smith, and A. Höskuldsson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2289–2312, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2289-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2289-2014, 2014
S. Scollo, M. Coltelli, C. Bonadonna, and P. Del Carlo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 3221–3233, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-3221-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-3221-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Volcanic Hazards
Social sensing a volcanic eruption: application to Kīlauea, 2018
Quantifying economic risks to dairy farms from volcanic hazards in Taranaki, Aotearoa / New Zealand
Geophysical fingerprint of the 4–11 July 2024 eruptive activity at Stromboli volcano, Italy
Automating tephra fall building damage assessment using deep learning
Where will the next flank eruption at Etna occur? An updated spatial probabilistic assessment
Long-term hazard of pyroclastic density currents at Vesuvius (Southern Italy) with maps of impact parameters
Brief communication: Small-scale geohazards cause significant and highly variable impacts on emotions
“More poison than words can describe”: what did people die of after the 1783 Laki eruption in Iceland?
The 1538 eruption at Campi Flegrei resurgent caldera: implications for future unrest and eruptive scenarios
SEATANI: hazards from seamounts in Southeast Asia, Taiwan, and Andaman and Nicobar Islands (eastern India)
The 2021 La Palma volcanic eruption and its impact on ionospheric scintillation as measured from GNSS reference stations, GNSS-R and GNSS-RO
Lava flow hazard modeling during the 2021 Fagradalsfjall eruption, Iceland: applications of MrLavaLoba
Assessing long-term tephra fallout hazard in southern Italy from Neapolitan volcanoes
Clustering of eruptive events from high-precision strain signals recorded during the 2020–2022 lava fountains at the Etna volcano (Italy)
Grain size modulates volcanic ash retention on crop foliage and potential yield loss
Characterizing the evolution of mass flow properties and dynamics through analysis of seismic signals: insights from the 18 March 2007 Mt. Ruapehu lake-breakout lahar
Multi-station automatic classification of seismic signatures from the Lascar volcano database
Scenario-based modelling of waves generated by sublacustrine explosive eruptions at Lake Taupō, New Zealand
The characteristics of the 2022 Tonga volcanic tsunami in the Pacific Ocean
Assessing minimum pyroclastic density current mass to impact critical infrastructures: example from Aso caldera (Japan)
Insights into the vulnerability of vegetation to tephra fallouts from interpretable machine learning and big Earth observation data
Risk communication during seismo-volcanic crises: the example of Mayotte, France
Evaluating and ranking Southeast Asia's exposure to explosive volcanic hazards
Assessing the effectiveness and the economic impact of evacuation: the case of the island of Vulcano, Italy
VADUGS: a neural network for the remote sensing of volcanic ash with MSG/SEVIRI trained with synthetic thermal satellite observations simulated with a radiative transfer model
Long-term hazard assessment of explosive eruptions at Jan Mayen (Norway) and implications for air traffic in the North Atlantic
A unified probabilistic framework for volcanic hazard and eruption forecasting
Quantifying location error to define uncertainty in volcanic mass flow hazard simulations
Lava flow hazard map of Piton de la Fournaise volcano
Thematic vent opening probability maps and hazard assessment of small-scale pyroclastic density currents in the San Salvador volcanic complex (El Salvador) and Nejapa-Chiltepe volcanic complex (Nicaragua)
Assessing the impact of explosive eruptions of Fogo volcano (São Miguel, Azores) on the tourism economy
Remote monitoring of seismic swarms and the August 2016 seismic crisis of Brava, Cabo Verde, using array methods
Insights into the recurrent energetic eruptions that drive Awu, among the deadliest volcanoes on Earth
Invited perspectives: The volcanoes of Naples: how can the highest volcanic risk in the world be effectively mitigated?
A volcanic-hazard demonstration exercise to assess and mitigate the impacts of volcanic ash clouds on civil and military aviation
Analysis of properties of the 19 February 2018 volcanic eruption of Mount Sinabung in S5P/TROPOMI and Himawari-8 satellite data
Processes culminating in the 2015 phreatic explosion at Lascar volcano, Chile, evidenced by multiparametric data
Mapping the susceptibility of rain-triggered lahars at Vulcano island (Italy) combining field characterization, geotechnical analysis, and numerical modelling
Statistical theory of probabilistic hazard maps: a probability distribution for the hazard boundary location
Assessing the impact of road segment obstruction on accessibility of critical services in case of a hazard
Exposure-based risk assessment and emergency management associated with the fallout of large clasts at Mount Etna
Structural weakening of the Merapi dome identified by drone photogrammetry after the 2010 eruption
A retrospective study of the pre-eruptive unrest on El Hierro (Canary Islands): implications of seismicity and deformation in the short-term volcanic hazard assessment
An adaptive semi-Lagrangian advection model for transport of volcanic emissions in the atmosphere
Multi-level emulation of a volcanic ash transport and dispersion model to quantify sensitivity to uncertain parameters
Assessing qualitative long-term volcanic hazards at Lanzarote Island (Canary Islands)
High-resolution modelling of atmospheric dispersion of dense gas using TWODEE-2.1: application to the 1986 Lake Nyos limnic eruption
Examining the impact of lahars on buildings using numerical modelling
Brief communication: Extended chronology of the Cordón Caulle volcanic eruption beyond 2011 reveals toxic impacts
Aerosol properties and meteorological conditions in the city of Buenos Aires, Argentina, during the resuspension of volcanic ash from the Puyehue-Cordón Caulle eruption
James Hickey, James Young, Michelle Spruce, Ravi Pandit, Hywel Williams, Rudy Arthur, Wendy Stovall, and Matthew Head
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1681–1696, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1681-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1681-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Protecting lives and livelihoods during volcanic eruptions is the key challenge in volcanology. Analysing social media usage during volcanic crises can help us better understand the impacts of volcanic eruptions and how warning messages are received and actioned, to eventually better protect those people and their livelihoods. Our work shows how social media data could be used in real time during a volcanic crisis to learn more about volcanic eruptions.
Nicola J. McDonald, Leslie Dowling, Emily P. Harvey, Alana M. Weir, Mark S. Bebbington, Nam Bui, Christina Magill, Heather M. Craig, Garry W. McDonald, Juan J. Monge, Shane J. Cronin, Thomas M. Wilson, and Duncan Walker
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1543–1571, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1543-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1543-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we develop a model to quantify the future economic impacts of volcanic events for dairy farms in Taranaki, Aotearoa / New Zealand. We use the model to simulate 10 000 possible volcanic futures and collate results into risk-type metrics. The results highlight the variation in risk exposure across farms and show that volcanic risk should play an important role in shaping the future of Taranaki’s dairy sector. This model could be applied to other hazard and agricultural land use contexts.
Luciano Zuccarello, Duccio Gheri, Silvio De Angelis, Riccardo Civico, Tullio Ricci, and Piergiorgio Scarlato
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3773, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3773, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
On July 11, 2024, Stromboli erupted violently, generating a volcanic ash column and pyroclastic flows along the Sciara del Fuoco. The event followed intense explosions, ongoing lava flows, and crater rim collapses. A multiparametric analysis using seismo-acoustic, and drone data was conducted to reconstruct the eruption's key features, estimate material loss, and document summit morphology changes, aiming to improve understanding of eruption processes and enhance forecasting and risk management.
Eleanor Tennant, Susanna F. Jenkins, Victoria Miller, Richard Robertson, Bihan Wen, Sang-Ho Yun, and Benoit Taisne
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4585–4608, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4585-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4585-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
After a volcanic eruption, assessing building damage quickly is important for responding to and recovering from the disaster. Traditional damage assessment methods such as ground surveys can be time-consuming and resource-intensive, hindering rapid response and recovery efforts. To overcome this, we have developed an automated approach for tephra fall building damage assessment. Our approach uses drone-acquired optical images and deep learning to rapidly generate building damage data.
Laura Sandri, Alexander Garcia, Cristina Proietti, Stefano Branca, Gaetana Ganci, and Annalisa Cappello
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4431–4455, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4431-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4431-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we propose a probability map that shows where most likely future flank eruptions will occur at Etna volcano (in Sicily, Italy). The map updates previous studies since it is based on a much longer record of past flank eruption fissures that opened in the last 4000 years on Etna. We also propose sensitivity tests to evaluate how much the assumptions made change the final probability evaluation.
Pierfrancesco Dellino, Fabio Dioguardi, Roberto Sulpizio, and Daniela Mele
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2971, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2971, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Pyroclastic deposits are the only records left by pyroclastic flows at Vesuvius, deposits from past eruptions are the only way to get hints about the expected range of impact parameters. It is necessary to investigate the deposits first, then define a general model of the current that links deposit characteristics to flow dynamics, and finally reconstruct the impact parameters that better represent flow intensity in terms of damaging potential. This is the way the paper is organized.
Evgenia Ilyinskaya, Vésteinn Snæbjarnarson, Hanne Krage Carlsen, and Björn Oddsson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3115–3128, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3115-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3115-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Natural hazards can have negative impacts on mental health. We used artificial intelligence to analyse sentiments expressed by people in Twitter (now X) posts during a period of heightened earthquake activity and during a small volcanic eruption in Iceland. We show that even small natural hazards which cause no material damage can still have a significant impact on people. Earthquakes had a predominantly negative impact, but, somewhat unexpectedly, the eruption seemed to have a positive impact.
Claudia Elisabeth Wieners and Guðmundur Hálfdanarson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2971–2994, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2971-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2971-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
After the 1783 Laki eruption, excess mortality in Iceland was one-sixth of the population, traditionally explained by famine due to livestock loss. Since 1970, it has been suggested that 1) fluorine poisoning may have contributed to mortality in Iceland and 2) air pollution might have caused excess deaths in both Iceland and Europe. Reviewing contemporary Icelandic demographic data, air pollution simulations, and medical records on fluorosis, we show that evidence for both hypotheses is weak.
Giuseppe Rolandi, Claudia Troise, Marco Sacchi, Massimo Di Lascio, and Giuseppe De Natale
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2035, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2035, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We compare recent unrest episodes at Campi Flegrei caldera (Naples, Italy), with phenomena occurred during the historical eruption in 1538. Besides proposing a new, accurate reconstruction of the ground movements in the area since VIII century BC, we deduce a striking similarity of the present unrest with the precursors to the 1538 eruption. We then infer that, if the ground uplift continues, earthquakes up to magnitude 5 are expected, as well as a considerable eruption risk in the next decades.
Andrea Verolino, Su Fen Wee, Susanna F. Jenkins, Fidel Costa, and Adam D. Switzer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1203–1222, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1203-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1203-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Submarine volcanic eruptions represent the majority of eruptions taking place on Earth. Still, they are vastly understudied worldwide. Here we compile a new dataset and assess the morphology, depth, and height of submarine volcanoes in Southeast Asia and its surroundings to understand their hazard-exposure potential in the region. This study will serve as a stepping stone for future quantitative hazard assessments from submarine eruptions in Southeast Asia and neighbouring countries.
Carlos Molina, Badr-Eddine Boudriki Semlali, Guillermo González-Casado, Hyuk Park, and Adriano Camps
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3671–3684, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3671-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3671-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Global navigation satellite system signals are used to measure the perturbations induced in the ionosphere by earthquakes related to volcanic eruptions. The study uses data from ground stations and satellites measuring the signals reflected on the ocean or during radio occultation. The results shows a small correlation, but given the small magnitude of the earthquakes, it is difficult to apply this concept to any practical application that finds earthquake proxies in ionospheric perturbations.
Gro B. M. Pedersen, Melissa A. Pfeffer, Sara Barsotti, Simone Tarquini, Mattia de'Michieli Vitturi, Bergrún A. Óladóttir, and Ragnar Heiðar Þrastarson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3147–3168, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3147-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3147-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The lava eruption at Fagradalsfjall in 2021 was the most visited eruption in Iceland, with thousands of visitors per day for 6 months. To address the short- and long-term danger of lava inundating infrastructure and hiking paths, we used the lava flow model MrLavaLoba before and during the eruption. These simulations helped communicate lava hazards to stakeholders and can be used as a case study for lava hazard assessment for future eruptions in the area, which are likely to be more destructive.
Silvia Massaro, Manuel Stocchi, Beatriz Martínez Montesinos, Laura Sandri, Jacopo Selva, Roberto Sulpizio, Biagio Giaccio, Massimiliano Moscatelli, Edoardo Peronace, Marco Nocentini, Roberto Isaia, Manuel Titos Luzón, Pierfrancesco Dellino, Giuseppe Naso, and Antonio Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2289–2311, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2289-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2289-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A new methodology to calculate a probabilistic long-term tephra fallout hazard assessment in southern Italy from the Neapolitan volcanoes is provided. By means of thousands of numerical simulations we quantify the mean annual frequency with which the tephra load at the ground exceeds critical thresholds in 50 years. The output hazard maps account for changes in eruptive regimes of each volcano and are also comparable with those of other natural disasters in which more sources are integrated.
Luigi Carleo, Gilda Currenti, and Alessandro Bonaccorso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1743–1754, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1743-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1743-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Lava fountains at the Etna volcano are explosive eruptions that pose a serious threat to civil infrastructure and aviation. Their evolution from weak explosion to sustained eruptive column is imprinted in tiny ground deformations caught by strain signals with diverse duration and amplitude. By performing a clustering analysis on strain variations, we discover a transition among four eruptive styles, providing useful hints for volcano monitoring and hazard assessment.
Noa Ligot, Patrick Bogaert, Sébastien Biass, Guillaume Lobet, and Pierre Delmelle
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1355–1369, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1355-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1355-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing risk to crops from volcanic ashfall is critical to protect people who rely on agriculture for their livelihood and food security. Ash retention on crop leaves is a key process in damage initiation. Experiments with tomato and chilli pepper plants revealed that ash retention increases with decreasing ash grain size and is enhanced when leaves are pubescent or their surfaces are wet. We propose a new relationship to quantify potential crop yield loss as a function of ash retention.
Braden Walsh, Charline Lormand, Jon Procter, and Glyn Williams-Jones
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1029–1044, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1029-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1029-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Here, we delve into the properties of a lake-breakout mass flow that grew up to a volume of ~ 4.4 × 106 m3 over the course of 83 km that occurred on 18 March 2007 at Mt. Ruapehu, Aotearoa / New Zealand. The combination of seismic analysis (frequency and directionality) with on-the-ground measurements (e.g., video, sediment concentration) shows how a lahar evolves over time and distance and how using seismic techniques can help monitor the ever-changing dynamics and properties of a flow event.
Pablo Salazar, Franz Yupanqui, Claudio Meneses, Susana Layana, and Gonzalo Yáñez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 991–1006, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-991-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-991-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The acquisition of more generalizable models, using machine learning techniques, creates a good opportunity to develop a multi-volcano probabilistic model for volcanoes worldwide. This will improve the understanding and evaluation of the hazards and risks associated with the activity of volcanoes.
Matthew W. Hayward, Emily M. Lane, Colin N. Whittaker, Graham S. Leonard, and William L. Power
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 955–971, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-955-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-955-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, 20 explosive volcanic eruption scenarios of differing location and magnitude are simulated to investigate tsunami generation in Lake Taupō, New Zealand. A non-hydrostatic multilayer numerical scheme resolves the highly dispersive generated wavefield. Inundation, hydrographic and related hazard outputs are produced, indicating that significant inundation around the lake shore begins above 5 on the volcanic explosivity index.
Gui Hu, Linlin Li, Zhiyuan Ren, and Kan Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 675–691, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-675-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-675-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We explore the tsunamigenic mechanisms and the hydrodynamic characteristics of the 2022 Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai volcanic tsunami event. Through extensive analysis of tsunami waveforms, we identify four distinct tsunami components from different physical mechanisms. The long-lasting oscillation of the tsunami event in the Pacific Ocean was mainly associated with the interplay of the ocean waves left by atmospheric waves with local bathymetry.
Andrea Bevilacqua, Alvaro Aravena, Willy Aspinall, Antonio Costa, Sue Mahony, Augusto Neri, Stephen Sparks, and Brittain Hill
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3329–3348, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3329-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3329-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate through first-order kinetic energy models, the minimum volume and mass of a pyroclastic density current generated at the Aso caldera that might affect any of five distal infrastructure sites. These target sites are all located 115–145 km from the caldera, but in well-separated directions. Our constraints of volume and mass are then compared with the scale of Aso-4, the largest caldera-forming eruption of Aso.
Sébastien Biass, Susanna F. Jenkins, William H. Aeberhard, Pierre Delmelle, and Thomas Wilson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2829–2855, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2829-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2829-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present a methodology that combines big Earth observation data and interpretable machine learning to revisit the impact of past volcanic eruptions recorded in archives of multispectral satellite imagery. Using Google Earth Engine and dedicated numerical modelling, we revisit and constrain processes controlling vegetation vulnerability to tephra fallout following the 2011 eruption of Cordón Caulle volcano, illustrating how this approach can inform the development of risk-reduction policies.
Maud Devès, Robin Lacassin, Hugues Pécout, and Geoffrey Robert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2001–2029, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2001-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2001-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This paper focuses on the issue of population information about natural hazards and disaster risk. It builds on the analysis of the unique seismo-volcanic crisis on the island of Mayotte, France, that started in May 2018 and lasted several years. We document the gradual response of the actors in charge of scientific monitoring and risk management. We then make recommendations for improving risk communication strategies in Mayotte and also in contexts where comparable geo-crises may happen.
Susanna F. Jenkins, Sébastien Biass, George T. Williams, Josh L. Hayes, Eleanor Tennant, Qingyuan Yang, Vanesa Burgos, Elinor S. Meredith, Geoffrey A. Lerner, Magfira Syarifuddin, and Andrea Verolino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1233–1265, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1233-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1233-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
There is a need for large-scale comparable assessments of volcanic threat, but previous approaches assume circular hazard to exposed population. Our approach quantifies and ranks five exposure types to four volcanic hazards for 40 volcanoes in Southeast Asia. Java has the highest median exposure, with Merapi consistently ranking as the highest-threat volcano. This study and the tools developed provide a road map with the possibility to extend them to other regions and/or towards impact and loss.
Costanza Bonadonna, Ali Asgary, Franco Romerio, Tais Zulemyan, Corine Frischknecht, Chiara Cristiani, Mauro Rosi, Chris E. Gregg, Sebastien Biass, Marco Pistolesi, Scira Menoni, and Antonio Ricciardi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1083–1108, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1083-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1083-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Evacuation planning and management represent a key aspect of volcanic crises because they can increase people's protection as well as minimize the potential impacts on the economy, properties and infrastructure of the affected area. We present a simulation tool that assesses the effectiveness of different evacuation scenarios as well as a model to assess the economic impact of evacuation as a function of evacuation duration and starting period using the island of Vulcano (Italy) as a case study.
Luca Bugliaro, Dennis Piontek, Stephan Kox, Marius Schmidl, Bernhard Mayer, Richard Müller, Margarita Vázquez-Navarro, Daniel M. Peters, Roy G. Grainger, Josef Gasteiger, and Jayanta Kar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1029–1054, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1029-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1029-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The monitoring of ash dispersion in the atmosphere is an important task for satellite remote sensing since ash represents a threat to air traffic. We present an AI-based method that retrieves the spatial extension and properties of volcanic ash clouds with high temporal resolution during day and night by means of geostationary satellite measurements. This algorithm, trained on realistic observations simulated with a radiative transfer model, runs operationally at the German Weather Service.
Manuel Titos, Beatriz Martínez Montesinos, Sara Barsotti, Laura Sandri, Arnau Folch, Leonardo Mingari, Giovanni Macedonio, and Antonio Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 139–163, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-139-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-139-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This work addresses a quantitative hazard assessment on the possible impact on air traffic of a future ash-forming eruption on the island of Jan Mayen. Through high-performance computing resources, we numerically simulate the transport of ash clouds and ash concentration at different flight levels over an area covering Iceland and the UK using the FALL3D model. This approach allows us to derive a set of probability maps explaining the extent and persisting concentration conditions of ash clouds.
Warner Marzocchi, Jacopo Selva, and Thomas H. Jordan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3509–3517, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3509-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3509-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Eruption forecasting and volcanic hazard analysis are pervaded by uncertainty of different kinds, such as the natural randomness, our lack of knowledge, and the so-called unknown unknowns. After discussing the limits of how classical probabilistic frameworks handle these uncertainties, we put forward a unified probabilistic framework which unambiguously defines uncertainty of different kinds, and it allows scientific validation of the hazard model against independent observations.
Stuart R. Mead, Jonathan Procter, and Gabor Kereszturi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2447–2460, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2447-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2447-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Computer simulations can be used to estimate the flow path and inundation of volcanic mass flows; however, their accuracy needs to be appropriately measured and handled in order to determine hazard zones. This paper presents an approach to simulation accuracy assessment and hazard zonation with a volcanic debris avalanche as the benchmark. This method helped to identify and support key findings about errors in mass flow simulations, as well as potential end-use cases for hazard zonation.
Magdalena Oryaëlle Chevrel, Massimiliano Favalli, Nicolas Villeneuve, Andrew J. L. Harris, Alessandro Fornaciai, Nicole Richter, Allan Derrien, Patrice Boissier, Andrea Di Muro, and Aline Peltier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2355–2377, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2355-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2355-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
At Piton de la Fournaise, eruptions are typically fissure-fed and form extensive lava flow fields. Most historical events have occurred inside an uninhabited caldera, but rarely has lava flowed where population and infrastructure might be at risk. We present an up-to-date lava flow hazard map to visualize the probability of inundation by a lava flow per unit area that is an essential tool for hazard mitigation and guiding crises response management.
Andrea Bevilacqua, Alvaro Aravena, Augusto Neri, Eduardo Gutiérrez, Demetrio Escobar, Melida Schliz, Alessandro Aiuppa, and Raffaello Cioni
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1639–1665, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1639-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1639-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present novel probability maps for the opening position of new vents in the San Salvador (El Salvador) and Nejapa-Chiltepe (Nicaragua) volcanic complexes. In particular, we present thematic maps, i.e., we consider different hazardous phenomena separately. To illustrate the significant effects of considering the expected eruption style in the construction of vent opening maps, we focus on the analysis of small-scale pyroclastic density currents using an approach based on numerical modeling.
Joana Medeiros, Rita Carmo, Adriano Pimentel, José Cabral Vieira, and Gabriela Queiroz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 417–437, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-417-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-417-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study proposes a new approach to accessing the economic impact of explosive eruptions on the tourism sector on São Miguel Island, which uses the loss present value method to estimate the benefits generated by accommodation units over 30 years for different scenarios. The results reveal that in a near-total-destruction scenario, the economic loss is ~ EUR 145 million. This method can be adapted to other volcanic regions and also to other geological hazards and economic sectors.
Carola Leva, Georg Rümpker, and Ingo Wölbern
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3627–3638, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3627-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3627-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Often, an abrupt increase in shallow seismicity at volcanoes is seen as an indicator for magmatic intrusions into the upper crust. If no eruption occurs and the seismic activity stops, this is called a failed eruption. Here, we report a failed eruption of Brava, Cabo Verde, in August 2016. We remotely monitored the seismicity of Brava with a seismic array, operating from October 2015 to December 2016. Other episodes with increased seismicity around the island were also observed during the study.
Philipson Bani, Kristianto, Syegi Kunrat, and Devy Kamil Syahbana
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2119–2132, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2119-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2119-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Awu is a little-known volcano in Indonesia, and paradoxically it is one of the deadliest volcanoes on Earth. Some of its recurrent intense eruptions have induced world-scale impacts. The pulverization of a cooled lava dome and its conduit plug have allowed lake water injection into the conduit, leading to explosive water–magma interaction. The past vigorous eruptions were likely induced by these phenomena and it is a possible scenario for future events.
Giuseppe De Natale, Claudia Troise, and Renato Somma
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2037–2053, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2037-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2037-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This paper starts by showing the present low performance of eruption forecasting and then addresses the problem of effectively mitigating the highest volcanic risk in the world, represented by the Naples area (southern Italy). The problem is considered in a highly multidisciplinary way, taking into account the main economic, sociological and urban planning issues. Our study gives precise guidelines to assessing and managing volcanic risk in any densely urbanised area.
Marcus Hirtl, Delia Arnold, Rocio Baro, Hugues Brenot, Mauro Coltelli, Kurt Eschbacher, Helmut Hard-Stremayer, Florian Lipok, Christian Maurer, Dieter Meinhard, Lucia Mona, Marie D. Mulder, Nikolaos Papagiannopoulos, Michael Pernsteiner, Matthieu Plu, Lennart Robertson, Carl-Herbert Rokitansky, Barbara Scherllin-Pirscher, Klaus Sievers, Mikhail Sofiev, Wim Som de Cerff, Martin Steinheimer, Martin Stuefer, Nicolas Theys, Andreas Uppstu, Saskia Wagenaar, Roland Winkler, Gerhard Wotawa, Fritz Zobl, and Raimund Zopp
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1719–1739, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1719-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1719-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The paper summarizes the set-up and outcome of a volcanic-hazard demonstration exercise, with the goals of assessing and mitigating the impacts of volcanic ash clouds on civil and military aviation. Experts in the field simulated the sequence of procedures for an artificial eruption of the Etna volcano in Italy. The scope of the exercise ranged from the detection of the assumed event to the issuance of early warnings and optimized rerouting of flights.
Adrianus de Laat, Margarita Vazquez-Navarro, Nicolas Theys, and Piet Stammes
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1203–1217, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1203-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1203-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
TROPOMI satellite measurements can accurately determine the height of thick volcanic ash clouds from a short-lived volcanic eruption of the Sinabung volcano in Indonesia. Standard geostationary satellite detection of volcanic ash was limited due to the presence of water and ice in the upper parts of volcanic ash clouds, a known issue. The TROPOMI satellite measurements do not suffer from this limitation, hence providing information where standard geostationary volcanic ash detection is limited.
Ayleen Gaete, Thomas R. Walter, Stefan Bredemeyer, Martin Zimmer, Christian Kujawa, Luis Franco Marin, Juan San Martin, and Claudia Bucarey Parra
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 377–397, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-377-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-377-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Phreatic eruptions often occur without signs of enhanced volcanic unrest, avoiding detection and posing a threat to people in the vicinity. We analyzed data of the 2015 phreatic eruption of Lascar volcano, Chile, to retrospectively identify a precipitation event as the trigger mechanism and potential signs heralding this minor eruption. We showed that it is possible to detect the precursory activity of phreatic eruptions by deploying appropriate multiparametric monitoring.
Valérie Baumann, Costanza Bonadonna, Sabatino Cuomo, Mariagiovanna Moscariello, Sebastien Biass, Marco Pistolesi, and Alessandro Gattuso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2421–2449, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2421-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2421-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Lahars are fast-moving mixtures of volcanic debris and water propagating downslope on volcanoes that can be very dangerous for people and property. Identification of lahar source areas and initiation mechanisms is crucial to comprehensive lahar hazard assessment. We present the first rain-triggered lahar susceptibility map for La Fossa volcano (Vulcano, Italy) combining probabilistic tephra modelling, slope-stability modelling, precipitation data, field characterizations, and geotechnical tests.
David M. Hyman, Andrea Bevilacqua, and Marcus I. Bursik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1347–1363, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1347-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1347-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
In this work, we present new methods for calculating the mean, standard deviation, median, and modal locations of the boundaries of volcanic hazards. These calculations are based on a new, mathematically rigorous definition of probabilistic hazard maps – a way to map the probabilities of inundation by a given hazard. We apply this analysis to several models of volcanic flows: simple models of viscous flows, complex models of a tabletop granular flow, and a complex model of a volcanic mud flow.
Sophie Mossoux, Matthieu Kervyn, and Frank Canters
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1251–1263, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1251-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1251-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Hazard maps provide information about the probability of given areas of being affected by hazards. So far studies combining hazard mapping with accessibility to services are few. In this study, we propose two new metrics defining the importance of each road segment in the accessibility of services, taking into account the probability of being affected by a hazard. These metrics may help support discussions about the development of new infrastructure or road segments and evacuation procedures.
Sara Osman, Eduardo Rossi, Costanza Bonadonna, Corine Frischknecht, Daniele Andronico, Raffaello Cioni, and Simona Scollo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 589–610, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-589-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-589-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The fallout of large clasts (> 5 cm) from the margins of eruptive plumes can damage local infrastructure and severely injure people close to the volcano. Even though this potential hazard has been observed at many volcanoes, it has often been overlooked. We present the first hazard and risk assessment of large-clast fallout from eruptive plumes and use Mt Etna (Italy) as a case study. The use of dedicated shelters in the case of an explosive event that occurs with no warning is also evaluated.
Herlan Darmawan, Thomas R. Walter, Valentin R. Troll, and Agus Budi-Santoso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3267–3281, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3267-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-3267-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
At Merapi volcano, lava dome failure may generate pyroclastic flow and threaten populations who live on its flanks. Here, we assessed the potential hazard of the Merapi lava dome by using drone photogrammetry and numerical modeling. Results show a weak structural depression that is associated with high thermal imaging in the southern Merapi lava dome sector. The southern lava dome sector may be further destabilized by typical rainfall at the Merapi summit and produce pyroclastic flow up to 4 km.
Stefania Bartolini, Carmen López, Laura Becerril, Rosa Sobradelo, and Joan Martí
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1759–1770, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1759-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1759-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The most challenging aspect of forecasting volcanic eruptions is the correct identification and interpretation of precursors during the episodes that normally precede eruptive activity. We show an easy and useful approach to the understanding of the information recorded by the monitoring system and show how this information can be used to forecast an eruption and its potential hazards in real time. This methodology can be used to facilitate communication between scientists and decision-makers.
Elena Gerwing, Matthias Hort, Jörn Behrens, and Bärbel Langmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1517–1534, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1517-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1517-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This article describes the first volcanic emission advection model based on an adaptive mesh. The advection of volcanic emissions plays a crucial role in climate research, air traffic control and human wellbeing. In contrast to already existing volcanic emission dispersion models relying on a fixed grid, the application of an adaptive mesh enables us to simulate the advection of volcanic emissions with a high local resolution while minimizing computational cost.
Natalie J. Harvey, Nathan Huntley, Helen F. Dacre, Michael Goldstein, David Thomson, and Helen Webster
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 41–63, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-41-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-41-2018, 2018
Laura Becerril, Joan Martí, Stefania Bartolini, and Adelina Geyer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1145–1157, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1145-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1145-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Lanzarote is an island (Canaries, Spain), that has hosted the largest and longest eruption in the archipelago (Timanfaya 1730–36). It brought severe economic losses and forced local people to migrate. We have developed the first comprehensive hazard assessment for the island. New eruptions will take place close to the last one and will be characterised by Strombolian activity, with ash emission towards the S, medium-length lava flows and hydromagmatic activity only close to the coastal areas.
Arnau Folch, Jordi Barcons, Tomofumi Kozono, and Antonio Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 861–879, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-861-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-861-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric dispersal of a gas denser than air can threat the environment and surrounding communities. In complex terrains, microscale winds and local orographic features can have a strong influence on the gas cloud behavior, potentially leading to inaccurate model results if not captured by coarser-scale simulations. We introduce a methodology for microscale wind field characterization and validate it using, as a test case, the CO2 gas dispersal from 1986 Lake Nyos eruption.
Stuart R. Mead, Christina Magill, Vincent Lemiale, Jean-Claude Thouret, and Mahesh Prakash
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 703–719, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-703-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-703-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Volcanic mudflows, called lahars, can cause large amounts of damage to buildings. In this research we developed a method to estimate lahar-induced building damage based on the height, speed and amount of volcanic material in the lahar. This method was applied to a small region in Arequipa, Peru, where computer models were used to estimate the number of buildings affected by lahars. The research found that building location and the size of the flow are most important in determining damage.
Werner T. Flueck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2351–2355, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2351-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2351-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The 2011 Puyehue volcano eruption also caused persisting chemical impacts. By 2012, dental fluorosis in deer appeared, with bone fluoride increasing > 38-fold. Livestock also succumbed to fluorosis. As exposure of ruminants continued, bone fluoride reached 10 396 ppm, by 2014 caused skeletal fluorosis, reduced wool growth, and caused major losses among periparturient cattle. Peculiarities of digestive processes make ruminants susceptible to fluoride-containing ashes.
Ana Graciela Ulke, Marcela M. Torres Brizuela, Graciela B. Raga, and Darrel Baumgardner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2159–2175, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2159-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2159-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The eruption in June 2011 of the Puyehue-Cordón Caulle Volcanic Complex (Chile) impacted air traffic around the Southern Hemisphere for several months. The ash deposited in vast areas of the Patagonian steppe was subjected to the strong wind conditions prevalent during the austral winter and spring. An ash resuspension event impacted Buenos Aires and resulted in the closure of airports in the area on 16 October 2011. Measurements of aerosol properties clearly indicate the enhanced concentrations
Cited articles
Ágústsdóttir, A. M.: Ecosystem approach for natural hazard mitigation of volcanic tephra in Iceland: building resilience and sustainability, Nat. Hazards, 78, 1669–1691, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-1795-6, 2015.
Alparone, S., Andronico, D., Lodato, L., and Sgroi, T.: Relationship between tremor and volcanic activity during the Southeast Crater eruption on Mount Etna in early 2000, J. Geophys. Res., 108, 2241, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JB001866, 2003.
Andronico, D., Cannata, A., Di Grazia, G., and Ferrari, F.: The 1986–2021 paroxysmal episodes at the summit craters of Mt. Etna: Insights into volcano dynamics and hazard, Earth-Sci. Rev., 220, 103686, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2021.103686, 2021.
Aravena, A., Carparelli, G., Cioni, R., Prestifilippo, M., and Scollo, S.: Toward a real-time analysis of column height by visible cameras: an example from Mt. Etna, in Italy, Remote Sensing, 15, 2595, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs15102595, 2023.
Barsotti, S., Andronico, D., Neri, A., Del Carlo, P., Baxter, P. J., Aspinall, W. P., and Hincks, T.: Quantitative assessment of volcanic ash hazards for health and infrastructure at Mt. Etna (Italy) by numerical simulation, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 192, 85–96, 2010.
Barsotti, S., Di Rienzo, D. I., Thordarson, T., Björnsson, B. B., and Karlsdóttir, S.: Assessing Impact to Infrastructures Due to Tephra Fallout From Öræfajökull Volcano (Iceland) by Using a Scenario-Based Approach and a Numerical Model, Front. Earth Sci., 6, 196, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2018.00196, 2018.
Baxter, P. J.: Medical effects of volcanic eruptions, B. Volcanol., 52, 532, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00301534, 1990.
Bebbington, M., Cronin, S. J., Chapman, I., and Turnera, M. B.: Quantifying volcanic ash fall hazard to electricity infrastructure, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 177, 4, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2008.07.023, 2008.
Biass, S., Bonadonna, C., Traglia, F., Pistolesi, M., Rosi, M., and Lestuzzi, P.: Probabilistic evaluation of the physical impact of future tephra fallout events for the Island of Vulcano, Italy, B. Volcanol., 78, 1–22, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-016-1028-1, 2016.
Biass, S., Todde, A., Cioni, R., Pistolesi, M., Geshi, N., and Bonadonna, C.: Potential impacts of tephra fallout from a large-scale explosive eruption at Sakurajima volcano, Japan, B. Volcanol., 79, 73, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-017-1153-5, 2017.
Blake, D. M., Wilson, T. M., and Gomez, C.: Road marking coverage by volcanic ash, Environ. Earth Sci. 75, 1–12, 2016.
Blake, D. M., Wilson, T. M., Cole, J. W., Deligne, N. I., and Lindsay, J. M.: Impact of Volcanic Ash on Road and Airfield Surface Skid Resistance, Sustainability, 9, 1389, https://doi.org/10.3390/su9081389, 2017.
Blong, R. J.: Volcanic Hazards: A Sourcebook on the Effects of Eruptions, Sydney, Australia, Academic Press Inc., 79–94, ISBN: 9780121071806, 1984.
Blong, R. J.: Volcanic hazards risk assessment, in: Monitoring and Mitigation of Volcano Hazards, edited by: Scarpa, R. and Tilling, R. I., Springer, Berlin, 675–698, ISBN: 978-3540607137, 1996.
Bonadonna, C.: Probabilistic modelling of tephra dispersal, in: Statistics in Volcanology, edited by: Mader, H., Cole, S., and Connor, C. B., IAVCEI Series, Vol. 1, Geological Society of London, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JB002896, 2006.
Bonadonna, C., Connor, C. B., Houghton, B. F., Connor, L., Byrne, M., Laing, A., and Hincks, T. K.: Probabilistic modeling of tephra dispersal: Hazard assessment of a multiphase rhyolitic eruption at Tarawera, New Zealand, J. Geophys. Res., 110, B03203, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JB002896, 2005.
Bonadonna, C., Frischknecht, C., Menoni, S., Romerio, F., Gregg, C. E., Rosi, M., Biass, S., Asgary, A., Pistolesi, M., Guobadia, D., Gattuso, A., Ricciardi, A., and Cristiani, C.: Integrating hazard, exposure, vulnerability and resilience for risk and emergency management in a volcanic context: the ADVISE model, Journal of Applied Volcanology, 10, 7, https://doi.org/10.1186/s13617-021-00108-5, 2021a.
Bonadonna, C., Biass, S., Menoni, S., and Chris, E. G.: Assessment of risk associated with tephra-related hazards, in: Forecasting and Planning for Volcanic Hazards, Risks, and Disasters, edited by: Papale, P., Elsevier, Chap. 8, 329–378, 2021b.
Calvari, S. and Nunnari, G.: Comparison between Automated and Manual Detection of Lava Fountains from Fixed Monitoring Thermal Cameras at Etna Volcano, Italy, Remote Sens., 14, 2392, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14102392, 2022.
Calvari, S., Cannavò, F., Bonaccorso, A., Spampinato, L., and Pellegrino, A. G.: Paroxysmal Explosions, Lava Fountains and Ash Plumes at Etna Volcano: Eruptive Processes and Hazard Implications, Front. Earth Sci., 6, 107, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2018.00107, 2018.
Calvari, S., Bonaccorso, A., and Ganci, G.: Anatomy of a Paroxysmal Lava Fountain at Etna Volcano: The Case of the 12 March 2021, Episode, Remote Sensing, 13, 3052, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13153052, 2021.
Calvari, S., Biale, E., Bonaccorso, A., Cannata, A., Carleo, L., Currenti, G., Di Grazia, G., Ganci, G., Iozzia, A., Pecora, E., Prestifilippo, M., Sciotto, M., and Scollo, S.: Explosive Paroxysmal Events at Etna Volcano of Different Magnitude and Intensity Explored through a Multidisciplinary Monitoring System, Remote Sensing, 14, 4006, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14164006, 2022.
Casadevall, T. J.: The 1989–1990 eruption of redoubt volcano, Alaska: impacts on aircraft operations, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 62, 301–316, https://doi.org/10.1016/0377-0273(94)90038-8, 1994.
Connor, L. G. and Connor, C. B.: Inversion is the key to dispersion: Understanding eruption dynamics by inverting tephra fallout, in: Statistics in Volcanology, edited by: Mader, H., Cole, S., and Connor, C. B., Geological Society, London, 1, 231–242, https://doi.org/10.1144/IAVCEI001.18, 2006.
Corradini, S., Guerrieri, L., Lombardo, V., Merucci, L., Musacchio, M., Prestifilippo, M., Scollo, S., Silvestri, M., Spata, G., and Stelitano, D.: Proximal monitoring of the 2011–2015 Etna lava fountains using MSG-SEVIRI data, Geosciences, 8, 140, https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences8040140, 2018.
Costa, A., Macedonio, G., and Folch, A.: A three-dimensional Eulerian model for transport and deposition of volcanic ashes, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 241, 634–647, 2006.
Costa, A., Folch, A., Macedonio, G., Giaccio, B., Isaia, R., and Smith, V. C.: Quantifying volcanic ash dispersal and impact of the Campanian Ignimbrite super-eruption, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L10310, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051605, 2012.
Dominguez, L., Bonadonna, C., Frischknecht, C., Menoni, S., and Garcia, A.: Integrative Post-event Impact Assessment Framework for Volcanic Eruptions: A Disaster Forensic Investigation of the 2011–2012 Eruption of the Cordoìn Caulle Volcano (Chile), Front. Earth Sci., 9, 645945, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2021.645945, 2021.
Folch, A., Costa A. and Macedonio, G.: FALL3D: A computational model for transport and deposition of volcanic ash. Computers and Geosciences 35, 1334–1342, 2009.
Folch, A., Costa, A. and Basart, S.: Validation of the FALL3D ash dispersion model using observations of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull volcanic ash clouds, Atmospheric environment volume 48, Pages 165-183, 2012.
Folch, A., Costa, A., and Macedonio, G.: FPLUME-1.0: An integral volcanic plume model accounting for ash aggregation, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 431–450, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-431-2016, 2016.
Folch, A., Mingari, L., Gutierrez, N., Hanzich, M., Macedonio, G., and Costa, A.: FALL3D-8.0: a computational model for atmospheric transport and deposition of particles, aerosols and radionuclides – Part 1: Model physics and numerics, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1431–1458, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1431-2020, 2020.
Freret-Lorgeril, V., Bonadonna, C., Corradini, S., Donnadieu, F., Guerrieri, L., Lacanna, G., Marzano, F. S., Mereu, L., Merucci, L., Ripepe, M., Scollo, S., and Stelitano, D.: Examples of Multi-Sensor Determination of Eruptive Source Parameters of Explosive Events at Mount Etna, Remote Sensing, 13, 2097, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13112097, 2021.
Gordon, K. D., Cole, J. W., Rosenberg, M. D., and Johnston, D. M.: Effects of volcanic ash on computers and electronic equipment, Nat. Hazards, 34, 231–262, 2005.
Guffanti, M., Mayberry, G. C., and Casadevall, T. J.: Volcanic hazards to airports, Nat. Hazards, 51, 287–302, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-008-9254-2, 2009.
Hayes, J. L., Wilson, T. M., and Magill, C.: Tephra fall clean-up in urban environments, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 304, 359–377, 2015.
Hayes, J., Wilson, T. M., Deligne, N. I., Cole, J., and Hughes, M.: A model to assess tephra clean-up requirements in urban environments, Journal of Applied Volcanology, 6, 1, https://doi.org/10.1186/s13617-016-0052-3, 2017.
Hayes, J. L., Wilson, T. M., Carol Stewart, C., Villarosa, G., Salgado, P., Beigt, D., Outes, V., Deligne, N. I., and Leonard, G. S.: Tephra clean-up after the 2015 eruption of Calbuco volcano, Chile: a quantitative geospatial assessment in four communities, Journal of Applied Volcanology, 8, 7, https://doi.org/10.1186/s13617-019-0087-3, 2019.
Hayes, J. L., Biass, S., Jenkins, S. F., Meredith, E. S., and Williams, G. T.: Integrating criticality concepts into road network disruption assessments for volcanic eruptions, Journal of Applied Volcanology, 11, 8, https://doi.org/10.1186/s13617-022-00118-x, 2022.
Heiken, G., Murphy, M., Hackett, W., and Scott, W.: Volcanic hazards to energy infrastructure – ash fallout hazards and their mitigation: Proceedings, World Geothermal Congress, Florence, Italy, 18–31 May 1995, 4, 2795–2798, 1995.
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Biavati, G., Horányi, A., Muñoz Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Rozum, I., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Dee, D., and Thépaut, J.-N.: ERA5 hourly data on single levels from 1940 to present, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS) [data set], https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.adbb2d47, 2023.
Horwell, C. J. and Baxter, P. J.: The Respiratory Health Hazards of Volcanic Ash: A Review for Volcanic Risk Mitigation, B. Volcanol., 69, 1–24, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-006-0052-y, 2006.
Jenkins, S. F., Spence, R. J. S., Fonseca, J. F. B. D., Solidum, R. U., and Wilson, T. M.: Volcanic risk assessment: quantifying physical vulnerability in the built environ ment, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 276 105–120, 2014.
Jenkins, S., Barsotti, S., Hincks, T. K., Neri, A., Phillips, J. C., Sparks, R. S. J., Sheldrake, T., and Vougioukalakis, G.: Rapid emergency assessment of ash and gas hazard for future eruptions at Santorini Volcano, Greece, Journal of Applied Volcanology, 4, 16, https://doi.org/10.1186/s13617-015-0033-y, 2015.
Johnston, D. M. and Daly, M.: Auckland erupts!!!, New Zealand Science Monthly, 8, 6–7, 1995.
Johnston, D. M.: Physical and Social Impacts of Past and Future Volcanic Eruptions in New Zealand, PhD thesis, Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand, https://mro.massey.ac.nz/items/74dd7a9f-3024-4270-8fec-867c40444706 (last access: 20 March 2025), 1997.
Labadie, J. R.: Volcanic Ash Effects and Mitigation, Adapted from a Report Prepared in 1983 for the Air Force Office of Scientific Research and the Defence Advanced Research Projects Agency, https://www.nrc.gov/docs/ML0913/ML091330800.pdf (last access: 20 March 2025), 1994.
Magill, C., Blong, R., and McAneney, J.: VolcaNZ – A volcanic loss model for Auckland, New Zealand, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 149, 329–345, 2006.
Marzano, F. S., Picciotti, E., Vulpiani, G. and Montopoli, M.: Synthetic signatures of volcanic ash cloud particles from X-band dual-polarization radar, IEEE T. Geosci. Remote, 50, 193–211, https://doi.org/10.1109/TGRS.2011.2159225, 2012.
Marzano, F. S., Mereu, L., Scollo, S., Donnadieu, F., and Bonadonna, C.: Tephra mass eruption rate from ground-based X-band and L-band microwave radars during the November 23, 2013 Etna Paroxysm, IEEE T. Geosci. Remote, 58, 3314–3327, https://doi.org/10.1109/tgrs.2019.2953167, 2020.
Mastin, L. G., Guffanti, M., Servranckx, R., Webley, P., Barsotti, S., Dean, K., Durant, A., Ewert, J. W., Neri, A., Rose, W. I., Schneider, D., Siebert, D., Stunder, B., Swanson, G., Tupper, A., Volentik, A., and Waythomas, C. F.: A multidisciplinary effort to assign realistic source parameters to models of volcanic ash-cloud transport and dispersion during eruptions, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 186, 10–21, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2009.01.008, 2009.
Mereu, L., Marzano, F. S., Montopoli, M., and Bonadonna, C.: Retrieval of tephra size spectra and mass flow rate from C-band radar during the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption, Iceland, IEEE T. Geosci. Remote, 53, 5644–5660, https://doi.org/10.1109/tgrs.2015.2427032, 2015.
Mereu, L., Scollo, S., Bonadonna, C., Freret-Lorgeril, V., and Marzano, F. S.: Multisensor characterization of the incandescent jet region of lava fountain-fed tephra plumes, Remote Sensing, 12, 3629, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12213629, 2020.
Mereu, L., Scollo, S., Bonadonna, C., Donnadieu, F., Freret Lorgeril, V., and Marzano, F. S.: Ground-based remote sensing of volcanic mass flow: Retrieval techniques and uncertainty analysis of Mt. Etna eruptions in 2015, IEEE J. Sel. Top. Appl., 15, 504–518, https://doi.org/10.1109/jstars.2021.3133946, 2022.
Mereu, L., Scollo, S., Garcia, A., Sandri, L., Bonadonna, C., and Marzano, F. S.: A new radar-based statistical model to quantify mass eruption rate of volcanic plumes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 50, e2022GL100596, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL100596, 2023.
Miller, T. P. and Casadevall, T. J.: Volcanic ash hazards to aviation, in: Encyclopedia of Volcanoes, 1st edn., edited by: Sigurdsson, H., Houghton, B., Rymer, H., Stix, J., and McNutt, S., Academic Press, San Diego, CA, USA, 915–930, https://doi.org/10.1016/C2015-0-00175-7, 1999.
Montopoli, M.: Velocity profiles inside volcanic clouds from three-dimensional scanning microwave dual-polarization Doppler radars, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 121, 7881–7900, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD023464, 2016.
Pardini, F., De' Michieli Vitturi, M., Andronico, D., Esposti Ongaro, T., Cristaldi, A., and Neri, A.: Real-time probabilistic assessment of volcanic hazard for tephra dispersal and fallout at Mt. Etna: the 2021 lava fountain episodes, B. Volcanol., 85, 6, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-022-01614-z, 2023.
Romeo, F., Mereu, L., Scollo, S., Papa, M., Corradini, S., Merucci, L., and Marzano, F. S.: Volcanic Cloud Detection and Retrieval Using Satellite Multisensor Observations, Remote Sens., 15, 888, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs15040888, 2023.
Sarna-Wojcicki, A. M., Shipley, S., Waitt, R. B., Dzurisin, D., and Wood, S. H.: Areal distribution, thickness, mass, volume, and grain size of air-fall ash from the six major eruptions of 1980, in: The 1980 Eruptions of Mount Saint Helens, USGS Numbered Series 1250, edited by: Lipman, P. W. and Mullineaux, D. R., U.S. Government Publishing Office, Washington, DC, USA, 577–600, https://scholarworks.boisestate.edu/geo_facpubs/161 (last access: 20 March 2025), 1981.
Scollo, S., Del Carlo, P., and Coltelli, M.: Tephra fallout of 2001 Etna flank eruption: Analysis of the deposit and plume dispersion, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 160, 147–164, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2006.09.007, 2007.
Scollo, S., Tarantola, S., Bonadonna, C., Coltelli, M., and Saltelli, A.: Sensitivity analysis and uncertainty estimation for tephra dispersal models, J. Geophys. Res., 113, B06202, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JB004864, 2008a.
Scollo, S., Folch, A., and Costa, A.: A parametric and comparative study of different tephra fallout models, J. Volcanol. Geoth. Res., 176, 199–211, 2008b.
Scollo, S., Prestifilippo, M., Spata, G., D'Agostino, M., and Coltelli, M.: Monitoring and forecasting Etna volcanic plumes, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 1573–1585, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-9-1573-2009, 2009.
Scollo, S., Coltelli, M., Bonadonna, C., and Del Carlo, P.: Tephra hazard assessment at Mt. Etna (Italy), Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 3221–3233, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-3221-2013, 2013.
Scollo, S., Prestifilippo, M., Bonadonna, C., Cioni, R., Corradini, S., Degruyter, W., Rossi, E., Silvestri, M., Biale, E., Carparelli, G., Cassisi, C., Merucci, L., Musacchio, M., and Pecora, E.: Near-Real-Time Tephra Fallout Assessment at Mt. Etna, Italy, Remote Sens., 11, 2987, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs11242987, 2019.
Spence, R. J. S., Kelman, I., Baxter, P. J., Zuccaro, G., and Petrazzuoli, S.: Residential building and occupant vulnerability to tephra fall, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 5, 477–494, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-5-477-2005, 2005.
Taddeucci, J., Edmonds, M., Houghton, B., James, M. R., and Vergniolle, S.: Hawaiian and Strombolian Eruptions, in: The Encyclopedia of Volcanoes, Elsevier Inc., Amsterdam, The Netherland, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI, USA, 485–503, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-385938-9.00027-4, 2015.
Tadini, A., Gouhier, M., Donnadieu, F., de'Michieli Vitturi, M., and Pardini, F.: Particle sedimentation in numerical modelling: a case study from the Puyehue-Cordón Caulle 2011 eruption with the PLUME-MoM/HYSPLIT models, Atmosphere, 13, 784, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13050784, 2022.
Takishita, K., Poulidis, A. P. and Iguchi, M.: Tephra4D: a python-based model for high-resolution tephra transport and deposition simulations–applications at Sakurajima volcano, Japan, Atmosphere, 12, 331, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12030331, 2021.
Volentik, A. C. M., Connor, C. B., Connor, L. J., and Bonadonna, C.: Aspects of volcanic hazards assessment for the Bataan nuclear power plant, Luzon Peninsula, Philippines, in: Volcanic and tectonic hazard assessment for nuclear facilities, edited by: Connor, C., Chapman, N. A., and Connor, L., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, https://digitalcommons.usf.edu/geo_facpub/1038 (last access: 20 March 2025), 2009.
Vulpiani, G., Ripepe, M., and Valade, S.: Mass discharge rate retrieval combining weather radar and thermal camera observations, J. Geophys. Res.-Sol. Ea., 121, 5679–5695, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016jb013191, 2016.
Wardman, J. B., Wilson, T., Bodger, P. S., Cole, J. W., and Johnston, D. M.: Investigating the electrical conductivity of volcanic ash and its effects on HV power systems, Phys. Chem. Earth, 45–46, 128–145, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2011.09.003, 2012.
Wilson, L., Parfitt, E. A., and Head, J. W.: Explosive volcanic eruptions-VIII. The role of magma recycling in controlling the behaviour of Hawaiian-style lava fountains, Geophys. J. Int., 121, 215–225, 1995.
Wilson, T. M, Stewart, C., Sword-Daniels, V., Leonard, G. S., Johnston, D. M., Cole, J. W., Wardman, J., Wilson, G., and Barnard, S. T.: Volcanic ash impacts on critical infrastructure, Phys. Chem. Earth, 45–46, 5–23, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2011.06.006, 2012.
Wilson, G., Wilson, T. M., Deligne, N. I., and Cole, J. W.: Volcanic hazard impacts to critical infrastructure: A review, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 286, 148–182, 2014.
Short summary
By considering the quantification of tephra mass deposited on roads following an eruption (or a series of explosive volcanic eruptions), in this work we assessed the cumulated tephra mass on the road networks in three selected towns on Mt Etna’s eastern flank during several paroxysms in 2021. This is a first attempt to estimate the amount of tephra that must be removed during a crisis that could be reused, converting in this way a potential problem into an opportunity.
By considering the quantification of tephra mass deposited on roads following an eruption (or a...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint