Articles | Volume 25, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1521-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1521-2025
Research article
 | 
25 Apr 2025
Research article |  | 25 Apr 2025

Evaluation of machine learning approaches for large-scale agricultural drought forecasts to improve monitoring and preparedness in Brazil

Joseph W. Gallear, Marcelo Valadares Galdos, Marcelo Zeri, and Andrew Hartley

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Cited articles

Adede, C., Oboko, R., Wagacha, P. W., and Atzberger, C.: A mixed model approach to vegetation condition prediction using artificial neural networks (ANN): case of Kenya's operational drought monitoring, Remote Sens., 11, 1099, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs11091099, 2019.​​​​​​​ a, b, c
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Barrett, A. B., Duivenvoorden, S., Salakpi, E. E., Muthoka, J. M., Mwangi, J., Oliver, S., and Rowhani, P.: Forecasting vegetation condition for drought early warning systems in pastoral communities in Kenya, Remote Sens. Environ., 248, 111886, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2020.111886, 2020.​​​​​​​ a, b
Beaudoing, H., Rodell, M., Getirana, A., and Li, B.: Groundwater and Soil Moisture Conditions from GRACE and GRACE-FO Data Assimilation L4 7-days 0.125 x 0.125 degree U.S. V4.0, NASA/GSFC/HSL, Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC), Greenbelt, MD, USA [data set], https://doi.org/10.5067/UH653SEZR9VQ, 2021. a
Beck, H. E., Zimmermann, N. E., McVicar, T. R., Vergopolan, N., Berg, A., and Wood, E. F.: Present and future Köppen-Geiger climate classification maps at 1-km resolution, Scientific data, 5, 1–12, 2018. a
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Short summary
In Brazil, drought is of national concern and can have major consequences for agriculture. Here, we determine how to develop forecasts for drought stress on vegetation health using machine learning. Results aim to inform future developments in operational drought monitoring at the National Centre for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (CEMADEN) in Brazil. This information is essential for disaster preparedness and planning of future actions to support areas affected by drought.
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