Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 25, issue 1
Articles | Volume 25, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-147-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-147-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 25, issue 1
Research article
 | 
07 Jan 2025
Research article |  | 07 Jan 2025

Subseasonal forecasts of heat waves in West African cities

Cedric G. Ngoungue Langue, Christophe Lavaysse, and Cyrille Flamant

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Latest update: 03 Nov 2025
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Short summary
The present study addresses the predictability of heat waves at subseasonal timescales in West African cities over the period 2001–2020. Two models, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the UK Met Office models, were evaluated using two reanalyses: ERA5 and MERRA. The results suggest that at subseasonal timescales, the forecast models provide a better forecast than climatology, but the hit rate and false alarm rate are sub-optimal.
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