Articles | Volume 24, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-609-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-609-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
21 Feb 2024
Research article |
| 21 Feb 2024
| 21 Feb 2024
How to mitigate flood events similar to the 1979 catastrophic floods in the lower Tagus
Diego Fernández-Nóvoa
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Centro de Investigación Mariña (CIM), Universidade de Vigo, Environmental Physics Laboratory (EPhysLab), Campus da Auga, 32004 Ourense, Spain
Instituto Dom Luiz (IDL), Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016 Lisbon, Portugal
Alexandre M. Ramos
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research Troposphere Research (IMKTRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany
José González-Cao
Centro de Investigación Mariña (CIM), Universidade de Vigo, Environmental Physics Laboratory (EPhysLab), Campus da Auga, 32004 Ourense, Spain
Orlando García-Feal
Centro de Investigación Mariña (CIM), Universidade de Vigo, Environmental Physics Laboratory (EPhysLab), Campus da Auga, 32004 Ourense, Spain
Cristina Catita
Instituto Dom Luiz (IDL), Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016 Lisbon, Portugal
Moncho Gómez-Gesteira
Centro de Investigación Mariña (CIM), Universidade de Vigo, Environmental Physics Laboratory (EPhysLab), Campus da Auga, 32004 Ourense, Spain
Ricardo M. Trigo
Instituto Dom Luiz (IDL), Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016 Lisbon, Portugal
Departamento de Meteorologia, Universidade Federal Do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Related authors
Diego Fernández-Nóvoa, Orlando García-Feal, José González-Cao, Maite deCastro, and Moncho Gómez-Gesteira
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3957–3972, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3957-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3957-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A multiscale analysis, where the historical and future precipitation data from the CORDEX project were used as input in a hydrological model (HEC-HMS) that, in turn, feeds a 2D hydraulic model (Iber+), was applied to the case of the Miño-Sil basin (NW Spain), specifically to Ourense city, in order to analyze future changes in flood hazard. Detailed flood maps indicate an increase in the frequency and intensity of future floods, implying an increase in flood hazard in important areas of the city.
Orlando García-Feal, José González-Cao, Diego Fernández-Nóvoa, Gonzalo Astray Dopazo, and Moncho Gómez-Gesteira
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3859–3874, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3859-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3859-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme events have increased in the last few decades; having a good estimation of the outflow of a reservoir can be an advantage for water management or early warning systems. This study analyzes the efficiency of different machine learning techniques to predict reservoir outflow. The results obtained showed that the proposed models provided a good estimation of the outflow of the reservoirs, improving the results obtained with classical approaches.
José González-Cao, Orlando García-Feal, Diego Fernández-Nóvoa, José Manuel Domínguez-Alonso, and Moncho Gómez-Gesteira
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2583–2595, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2583-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2583-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
An early-warning system (EWS) for flood prediction was developed in the upper reach of the Miño River and the city of Lugo (NW Spain). This EWS can provide accurate results in less than 1 h, for a forecast horizon of 3 d, and report an alert situation to decision makers in order to mitigate the consequences of floods. In addition, this EWS can be easily adapted for any area of the world since the required input data and software are freely available.
Tiago M. Ferreira, Ricardo M. Trigo, Tomás H. Gaspar, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Alexandre M. Ramos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 609–623, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-609-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-609-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the synoptic evolution associated with the occurrence of an atmospheric river that led to a 24 h record-breaking extreme precipitation event (120.3 mm) in Lisbon, Portugal, on 13 December 2022. The synoptic background allowed the formation, on 10 December, of an atmospheric river associated with a deep extratropical cyclone and with a high moisture content and an inflow of moisture, due to the warm conveyor belt, throughout its life cycle. The system made landfall on 12 December.
Julia Moemken, Inovasita Alifdini, Alexandre M. Ramos, Alexandros Georgiadis, Aidan Brocklehurst, Lukas Braun, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3445–3460, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3445-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3445-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
European windstorms regularly cause damage to natural and human-made environments, leading to high socio-economic losses. For the first time, we compare estimates of these losses using a meteorological loss index (LI) and the insurance loss (catastrophe) model of Aon Impact Forecasting. We find that LI underestimates high-impact windstorms compared to the insurance model. Nonetheless, due to its simplicity, LI is an effective index, suitable for estimating impacts and ranking storm events.
Gabriele Messori, Antonio Segalini, and Alexandre M. Ramos
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1207–1225, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1207-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1207-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Simultaneous heatwaves or cold spells in remote geographical regions have potentially far-reaching impacts on society and the environment. Despite this, we have little knowledge of when and where these extreme events have occurred in the past decades. In this paper, we present a summary of past simultaneous heatwaves or cold spells and provide a computer program to enable other researchers to study them.
Fabiola Banfi, Emanuele Bevacqua, Pauline Rivoire, Sérgio C. Oliveira, Joaquim G. Pinto, Alexandre M. Ramos, and Carlo De Michele
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2689–2704, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2689-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2689-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Landslides are complex phenomena causing important impacts in vulnerable areas, and they are often triggered by rainfall. Here, we develop a new approach that uses information on the temporal clustering of rainfall, i.e. multiple events close in time, to detect landslide events and compare it with the use of classical empirical rainfall thresholds, considering as a case study the region of Lisbon, Portugal. The results could help to improve the prediction of rainfall-triggered landslides.
Nieves Bravo-Paredes, María Cruz Gallego, Ricardo M. Trigo, and José Manuel Vaquero
Clim. Past, 19, 1397–1408, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1397-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1397-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We present the earliest records made in San Fernando, very close to Cádiz (SW Spain). Several previous works have already recovered a significant number of meteorological records of interest in these localities. However, more than 40 000 daily meteorological observations recorded at the Royal Observatory of the Spanish Navy (located in San Fernando) were previously unnoticed and remained neither digitized nor studied. We analyze in detail these newly recovered meteorological readings.
Diego Fernández-Nóvoa, Orlando García-Feal, José González-Cao, Maite deCastro, and Moncho Gómez-Gesteira
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3957–3972, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3957-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3957-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A multiscale analysis, where the historical and future precipitation data from the CORDEX project were used as input in a hydrological model (HEC-HMS) that, in turn, feeds a 2D hydraulic model (Iber+), was applied to the case of the Miño-Sil basin (NW Spain), specifically to Ourense city, in order to analyze future changes in flood hazard. Detailed flood maps indicate an increase in the frequency and intensity of future floods, implying an increase in flood hazard in important areas of the city.
Orlando García-Feal, José González-Cao, Diego Fernández-Nóvoa, Gonzalo Astray Dopazo, and Moncho Gómez-Gesteira
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3859–3874, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3859-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3859-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme events have increased in the last few decades; having a good estimation of the outflow of a reservoir can be an advantage for water management or early warning systems. This study analyzes the efficiency of different machine learning techniques to predict reservoir outflow. The results obtained showed that the proposed models provided a good estimation of the outflow of the reservoirs, improving the results obtained with classical approaches.
Miguel M. Lima, Célia M. Gouveia, and Ricardo M. Trigo
Ocean Sci., 18, 1419–1430, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1419-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-1419-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This article aims to explore the interaction between tropical cyclones and the ocean in a less studied area regarding these events. Tropical cyclones generally create an area of colder waters behind them, which in turn can contribute to an increase in biological activity. In the Azores region, the intensity, track geometry, and impact area of the cyclones are the most important factors to determine these responses. The speed of the cyclones was found to be more important for biological activity.
Lisa-Ann Kautz, Olivia Martius, Stephan Pfahl, Joaquim G. Pinto, Alexandre M. Ramos, Pedro M. Sousa, and Tim Woollings
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 305–336, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-305-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-305-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric blocking is associated with stationary, self-sustaining and long-lasting high-pressure systems. They can cause or at least influence surface weather extremes, such as heat waves, cold spells, heavy precipitation events, droughts or wind extremes. The location of the blocking determines where and what type of extreme event will occur. These relationships are also important for weather prediction and may change due to global warming.
Animesh K. Gain, Yves Bühler, Pascal Haegeli, Daniela Molinari, Mario Parise, David J. Peres, Joaquim G. Pinto, Kai Schröter, Ricardo M. Trigo, María Carmen Llasat, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 985–993, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-985-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-985-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To mark the 20th anniversary of Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS), an interdisciplinary and international journal dedicated to the public discussion and open-access publication of high-quality studies and original research on natural hazards and their consequences, we highlight 11 key publications covering major subject areas of NHESS that stood out within the past 20 years.
Gerard van der Schrier, Richard P. Allan, Albert Ossó, Pedro M. Sousa, Hans Van de Vyver, Bert Van Schaeybroeck, Roberto Coscarelli, Angela A. Pasqua, Olga Petrucci, Mary Curley, Mirosław Mietus, Janusz Filipiak, Petr Štěpánek, Pavel Zahradníček, Rudolf Brázdil, Ladislava Řezníčková, Else J. M. van den Besselaar, Ricardo Trigo, and Enric Aguilar
Clim. Past, 17, 2201–2221, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2201-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2201-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The 1921 drought was the most severe drought to hit Europe since the start of the 20th century. Here the climatological description of the drought is coupled to an overview of its impacts, sourced from newspapers, and an analysis of its drivers. The area from Ireland to the Ukraine was affected but hardest hit was the triangle between Brussels, Paris and Lyon. The drought impacts lingered on until well into autumn and winter, affecting water supply and agriculture and livestock farming.
Margarida L. R. Liberato, Irene Montero, Célia Gouveia, Ana Russo, Alexandre M. Ramos, and Ricardo M. Trigo
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 197–210, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-197-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-197-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Extensive, long-standing dry and wet episodes are frequent climatic extreme events (EEs) in the Iberian Peninsula (IP). A method for ranking regional extremes of persistent, widespread drought and wet events is presented, using different SPEI timescales. Results show that there is no region more prone to EE occurrences in the IP, the most extreme extensive agricultural droughts evolve into hydrological and more persistent extreme droughts, and widespread wet and dry EEs are anti-correlated.
Alexandre M. Ramos, Pedro M. Sousa, Emanuel Dutra, and Ricardo M. Trigo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 877–888, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-877-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-877-2020, 2020
José González-Cao, Orlando García-Feal, Diego Fernández-Nóvoa, José Manuel Domínguez-Alonso, and Moncho Gómez-Gesteira
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2583–2595, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2583-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2583-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
An early-warning system (EWS) for flood prediction was developed in the upper reach of the Miño River and the city of Lugo (NW Spain). This EWS can provide accurate results in less than 1 h, for a forecast horizon of 3 d, and report an alert situation to decision makers in order to mitigate the consequences of floods. In addition, this EWS can be easily adapted for any area of the world since the required input data and software are freely available.
C. Catita, M. P. Teves-Costa, L. Matias, and J. Batlló
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLII-3-W8, 87–92, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-3-W8-87-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-3-W8-87-2019, 2019
Sílvia A. Nunes, Carlos C. DaCamara, Kamil F. Turkman, Teresa J. Calado, Ricardo M. Trigo, and Maria A. A. Turkman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1459–1470, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1459-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1459-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Portugal is recurrently affected by large wildfire events. We present a statistical model to estimate the probability that the summer burned area exceeds a given threshold. The model allows making outlooks of wildfire potential with up to 1 month in advance of the fire season. When applied to the 39-year period 1980-2018, only 1 severe (one weak) year is not anticipated as potentially severe (weak). The model will assist the fire community when planning prevention and combating fire events.
Christine A. Shields, Jonathan J. Rutz, Lai-Yung Leung, F. Martin Ralph, Michael Wehner, Brian Kawzenuk, Juan M. Lora, Elizabeth McClenny, Tashiana Osborne, Ashley E. Payne, Paul Ullrich, Alexander Gershunov, Naomi Goldenson, Bin Guan, Yun Qian, Alexandre M. Ramos, Chandan Sarangi, Scott Sellars, Irina Gorodetskaya, Karthik Kashinath, Vitaliy Kurlin, Kelly Mahoney, Grzegorz Muszynski, Roger Pierce, Aneesh C. Subramanian, Ricardo Tome, Duane Waliser, Daniel Walton, Gary Wick, Anna Wilson, David Lavers, Prabhat, Allison Collow, Harinarayan Krishnan, Gudrun Magnusdottir, and Phu Nguyen
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2455–2474, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2455-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-2455-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
ARTMIP (Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project) is a community effort with the explicit goal of understanding the uncertainties, and the implications of those uncertainties, in atmospheric river science solely due to detection algorithm. ARTMIP strives to quantify these differences and provide guidance on appropriate algorithmic choices for the science question posed. Project goals, experimental design, and preliminary results are provided.
Patrícia Páscoa, Célia M. Gouveia, Ana C. Russo, Roxana Bojariu, Sergio M. Vicente-Serrano, and Ricardo M. Trigo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-264, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2018-264, 2018
Revised manuscript not accepted
Julien Ruffault, Thomas Curt, Nicolas K. Martin-StPaul, Vincent Moron, and Ricardo M. Trigo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 847–856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-847-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-847-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme wildfires events (EWE) have been recorded during the past year in the Mediterranean. By analyzing the climatic conditions associated with the French 2003 and 2016 fires seasons, we found that EWE were associated to two distinct climatic events whose frequencies are both expected to increase with global changes: hot droughts and long droughts. These results suggest that EWE are likely to become more common in the future and will certainly challenge fire management.
Miguel M. Pinto, Carlos C. DaCamara, Isabel F. Trigo, Ricardo M. Trigo, and K. Feridun Turkman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 515–529, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-515-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-515-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We present a procedure that allows the operational generation of daily forecasts of fire danger over Mediterranean Europe. The procedure combines historical information about radiative energy released by fire events with daily meteorological forecasts. Results obtained show that about 72 % of severe events releasing daily energy above 10 000 GJ belong to the
extremeclass of fire danger. The procedure is expected to assist in wildfire management and in decision making on prescribed burning.
Jorge Eiras-Barca, Alexandre M. Ramos, Joaquim G. Pinto, Ricardo M. Trigo, Margarida L. R. Liberato, and Gonzalo Miguez-Macho
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 91–102, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-91-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-91-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper analyses the potential role of atmospheric rivers in the explosive cyclone deepening. Using ERA-Interim reanalysis data for 1979–2011, we analyse the concurrence of atmospheric rivers and explosive cyclogenesis over the North Atlantic and North Pacific basins for the extended winter months (ONDJFM).
Alexandre M. Ramos, Raquel Nieto, Ricardo Tomé, Luis Gimeno, Ricardo M. Trigo, Margarida L. R. Liberato, and David A. Lavers
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 371–384, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-371-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-371-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
An atmospheric river (AR) detection algorithm is used for the North Atlantic Ocean basin, allowing the identification of the major ARs that affected western European coasts between 1979 and 2014. A Lagrangian analysis was then applied in order to identify the main sources of moisture of the ARs that reach western European coasts. Results confirm not only the advection of moisture linked to ARs from subtropical ocean areas but also the existence of a tropical one.
S. Pereira, A. M. Ramos, J. L. Zêzere, R. M. Trigo, and J. M. Vaquero
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 371–390, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-371-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-371-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
This work explores the meteorological conditions of the hydro-geomorphologic event of December 1909 that triggered the highest floods in more than 100 years at the Douro river's mouth and caused important social impacts over the Portuguese and Spanish territories.
The study of this extreme event contributes to a comprehensive and systematic synoptic evaluation of the second most deadly hydro-geomorphologic disaster event occurred in Portugal since 1865.
L. Gimeno, M. Vázquez, R. Nieto, and R. M. Trigo
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 583–589, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-583-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-583-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
There appears to be a connection between two climate change indicators: an increase in evaporation over source regions and Arctic ice melting.
A. Bastos, C. M. Gouveia, R. M. Trigo, and S. W. Running
Biogeosciences, 11, 3421–3435, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3421-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3421-2014, 2014
S. Jerez, P. Jimenez-Guerrero, J. P. Montávez, and R. M. Trigo
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 11195–11207, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-11195-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-11195-2013, 2013
M. L. R. Liberato, J. G. Pinto, R. M. Trigo, P. Ludwig, P. Ordóñez, D. Yuen, and I. F. Trigo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2239–2251, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2239-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2239-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Hydrological Hazards
Causes of the exceptionally high number of fatalities in the Ahr valley, Germany, during the 2021 flood
Large-scale flood risk assessment in data-scarce areas: an application to Central Asia
Multi-scale hydraulic graph neural networks for flood modelling
The role of antecedent conditions in translating precipitation events into extreme floods at the catchment scale and in a large-basin context
Brief communication: Stay local or go global? On the construction of plausible counterfactual scenarios to assess flash flood hazards
Integrating susceptibility maps of multiple hazards and building exposure distribution: a case study of wildfires and floods for the province of Quang Nam, Vietnam
Tangible and intangible ex post assessment of flood-induced damage to cultural heritage
A multivariate statistical framework for mixed storm types in compound flood analysis
Invited perspectives: safeguarding the usability and credibility of flood hazard and risk assessments
Influence of building collapse on pluvial and fluvial flood inundation of metro stations in central Shanghai
Impact of drought hazards on flow regimes in anthropogenically impacted streams: an isotopic perspective on climate stress
The effect of wildfires on flood risk: a multi-hazard flood risk approach for the Ebro River basin, Spain
Modelling hazards impacting the flow regime in the Hranice Karst due to the proposed Skalička Dam
Spatiotemporal variability of flash floods and their human impacts in the Czech Republic during the 2001–2023 period
Risk of compound flooding substantially increases in the future Mekong River delta
Transferability of machine-learning-based modeling frameworks across flood events for hindcasting maximum river water depths in coastal watersheds
Floods in the Pyrenees: a global view through a regional database
The 2018–2023 drought in Berlin: impacts and analysis of the perspective of water resources management
Algorithmically detected rain-on-snow flood events in different climate datasets: a case study of the Susquehanna River basin
Disentangling Atmospheric, Hydrological, and Coupling Uncertainties in Compound Flood Modeling within a Coupled Earth System Model
Review article: Drought as a continuum – memory effects in interlinked hydrological, ecological, and social systems
Coupling WRF with HEC-HMS and WRF-Hydro for flood forecasting in typical mountainous catchments of northern China
Monte-Carlo based sensitivity analysis of the RIM2D hydrodynamic model for the 2021 flood event in Western Germany
Precursors and pathways: dynamically informed extreme event forecasting demonstrated on the historic Emilia-Romagna 2023 flood
Demonstrating the use of UNSEEN climate data for hydrological applications: case studies for extreme floods and droughts in England
Recent large inland lake outbursts on the Tibetan Plateau: Processes, causes and mechanisms
Exploring the use of seasonal forecasts to adapt flood insurance premiums
Are 2D shallow-water solvers fast enough for early flood warning? A comparative assessment on the 2021 Ahr valley flood event
Water depth estimate and flood extent enhancement for satellite-based inundation maps
Probabilistic flood inundation mapping through copula Bayesian multi-modeling of precipitation products
Flood occurrence and impact models for socioeconomic applications over Canada and the United States
Model-based assessment of climate change impact on inland flood risk at the German North Sea coast caused by compounding storm tide and precipitation events
Dynamics and Impacts of Monsoon-Induced Geological Hazards: A 2022 Flood Study along the Swat River in Pakistan
An improved dynamic bidirectional coupled hydrologic–hydrodynamic model for efficient flood inundation prediction
Quantifying hazard resilience by modeling infrastructure recovery as a resource-constrained project scheduling problem
Hydrometeorological controls of and social response to the 22 October 2019 catastrophic flash flood in Catalonia, north-eastern Spain
A downward-counterfactual analysis of flash floods in Germany
Hyper-resolution flood hazard mapping at the national scale
Compound droughts under climate change in Switzerland
Brief communication: SWM – stochastic weather model for precipitation-related hazard assessments using ERA5-Land data
Text mining uncovers the unique dynamics of socio-economic impacts of the 2018–2022 multi-year drought in Germany
The value of multi-source data for improved flood damage modelling with explicit input data uncertainty treatment: INSYDE 2.0
Limited effect of the confluence angle and tributary gradient on Alpine confluence morphodynamics under intense sediment loads
Does a convection-permitting regional climate model bring new perspectives on the projection of Mediterranean floods?
Added value of seasonal hindcasts to create UK hydrological drought storylines
Flash flood detection via copula-based intensity–duration–frequency curves: evidence from Jamaica
Seasonal forecasting of local-scale soil moisture droughts with Global BROOK90: a case study of the European drought of 2018
Assessing LISFLOOD-FP with the next-generation digital elevation model FABDEM using household survey and remote sensing data in the Central Highlands of Vietnam
CRHyME (Climatic Rainfall Hydrogeological Modelling Experiment): a new model for geo-hydrological hazard assessment at the basin scale
Current and future rainfall-driven flood risk from hurricanes in Puerto Rico under 1.5 and 2 °C climate change
Belinda Rhein and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 581–589, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-581-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-581-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
In July 2021, flooding killed 190 people in Germany, 134 of them in the Ahr valley, making it the deadliest flood in recent German history. The flash flood was extreme in terms of water levels, flow velocities and flood extent, and early warning and evacuation were inadequate. Many died on the ground floor or in the street, with older and impaired individuals especially vulnerable. Clear warnings should urge people to seek safety rather than save belongings, and timely evacuations are essential.
Paola Ceresa, Gianbattista Bussi, Simona Denaro, Gabriele Coccia, Paolo Bazzurro, Mario Martina, Ettore Fagà, Carlos Avelar, Mario Ordaz, Benjamin Huerta, Osvaldo Garay, Zhanar Raimbekova, Kanatbek Abdrakhmatov, Sitora Mirzokhonova, Vakhitkhan Ismailov, and Vladimir Belikov
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 403–428, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-403-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-403-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
A fully probabilistic flood risk assessment was carried out for five Central Asian countries to support regional and national risk financing and insurance applications. The paper presents the first high-resolution regional-scale transboundary flood risk assessment study in the area aiming to provide tools for decision-making.
Roberto Bentivoglio, Elvin Isufi, Sebastiaan Nicolas Jonkman, and Riccardo Taormina
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 335–351, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-335-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-335-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Deep learning methods are increasingly used as surrogates for spatio-temporal flood models but struggle with generalization and speed. Here, we propose a multi-resolution approach using graph neural networks that predicts dike breach floods across different meshes, topographies, and boundary conditions with high accuracy and up to 1000× speed-ups. The model also generalizes to larger more complex case studies with just one additional simulation for fine-tuning.
Maria Staudinger, Martina Kauzlaric, Alexandre Mas, Guillaume Evin, Benoit Hingray, and Daniel Viviroli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 247–265, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-247-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-247-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Various combinations of antecedent conditions and precipitation result in floods of varying degrees. Antecedent conditions played a crucial role in generating even large ones. The key predictors and spatial patterns of antecedent conditions leading to flooding at the basin's outlet were distinct. Precipitation and soil moisture from almost all sub-catchments were important for more frequent floods. For rarer events, only the predictors of specific sub-catchments were important.
Paul Voit and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4609–4615, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4609-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4609-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Floods have caused significant damage in the past. To prepare for such events, we rely on historical data but face issues due to rare rainfall events, lack of data and climate change. Counterfactuals, or
what ifscenarios, simulate historical rainfall in different locations to estimate flood levels. Our new study refines this by deriving more-plausible local scenarios, using the June 2024 Bavaria flood as a case study. This method could improve preparedness for future floods.
Chinh Luu, Giuseppe Forino, Lynda Yorke, Hang Ha, Quynh Duy Bui, Hanh Hong Tran, Dinh Quoc Nguyen, Hieu Cong Duong, and Matthieu Kervyn
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4385–4408, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4385-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4385-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a novel and integrated approach to assessing the climate hazards of floods and wildfires. We explore multi-hazard assessment and risk through a machine learning modeling approach. The process includes collecting a database of topography, climate, geology, environment, and building data; developing models for multi-hazard assessment and coding in the Google Earth Engine; and producing credible multi-hazard susceptibility and building exposure maps.
Claudia De Lucia, Michele Amaddii, and Chiara Arrighi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4317–4339, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4317-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4317-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This work describes the flood damage to cultural heritage (CH) that occurred in September 2022 in central Italy. Datasets related to flood impacts on cultural heritage are rare, and this work aims at highlighting both tangible and intangible aspects and their correlation with physical characteristics of flood (i.e. water depth and flow velocity). The results show that current knowledge and datasets are inadequate for risk assessment of CH.
Pravin Maduwantha, Thomas Wahl, Sara Santamaria-Aguilar, Robert Jane, James F. Booth, Hanbeen Kim, and Gabriele Villarini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4091–4107, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4091-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4091-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
When assessing the likelihood of compound flooding, most studies ignore that it can arise from different storm types with distinct statistical characteristics. Here, we present a new statistical framework that accounts for these differences and shows how neglecting these can impact the likelihood of compound flood potential.
Bruno Merz, Günter Blöschl, Robert Jüpner, Heidi Kreibich, Kai Schröter, and Sergiy Vorogushyn
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4015–4030, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4015-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4015-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Flood risk assessments help us decide how to reduce the risk of flooding. Since these assessments are based on probabilities, it is hard to check their accuracy by comparing them to past data. We suggest a new way to validate these assessments, making sure they are practical for real-life decisions. This approach looks at both the technical details and the real-world situations where decisions are made. We demonstrate its practicality by applying it to flood emergency planning.
Zhi Li, Hanqi Li, Zhibo Zhang, Chaomeng Dai, and Simin Jiang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3977–3990, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3977-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3977-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study used advanced computer simulations to investigate how earthquake-induced building collapse affects flooding of the metro stations in Shanghai. Results show that the influences of building collapse on rainfall-driven and river-driven floods are different because these two types of floods have different origination and propagation mechanisms.
Maria Magdalena Warter, Dörthe Tetzlaff, Christian Marx, and Chris Soulsby
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3907–3924, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3907-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3907-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Streams are increasingly impacted by droughts and floods. Still, the amount of water needed for sustainable flows remains unclear and contested. A comparison of two streams in the Berlin–Brandenburg region of northeast Germany, using stable water isotopes, shows strong groundwater dependence with seasonal rainfall contributing to high/low flows. Understanding streamflow variability can help us assess the impacts of climate change on future water resource management.
Samuel Jonson Sutanto, Matthijs Janssen, Mariana Madruga de Brito, and Maria del Pozo Garcia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3703–3721, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3703-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3703-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A conventional flood risk assessment only evaluates flood hazard in isolation without considering wildfires. This study, therefore, evaluates the effect of wildfires on flood risk, considering both current and future conditions for the Ebro River basin in Spain. Results show that extreme climate change increases the risk of flooding, especially when considering the effect of wildfires, highlighting the importance of adopting a multi-hazard risk management approach.
Miroslav Spano and Jaromir Riha
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3683–3701, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3683-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study examines the effects of hydrogeological hazard due to construction of the Skalička Dam near the Hranice Karst on groundwater discharges and water levels in the local karst formations downstream. A simplified pipe model was used to analyze the impact of two dam layouts: lateral and through-flow reservoirs. Results show that the through-flow scheme more significantly influences water levels and the discharge of mineral water, while the lateral layout has only negligible impact.
Rudolf Brázdil, Dominika Faturová, Monika Šulc Michalková, Jan Řehoř, Martin Caletka, and Pavel Zahradníček
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3663–3682, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3663-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3663-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Flash floods belong to natural hazards that can be enhanced in frequency, intensity, and impact during recent climate change. This paper presents a complex analysis of spatiotemporal variability and human impacts (including material damage and fatalities) of flash floods in the Czech Republic for the 2001–2023 period. The analysis generally shows no statistically significant trends in the characteristics analyzed.
Melissa Wood, Ivan D. Haigh, Quan Quan Le, Hung Nghia Nguyen, Hoang Ba Tran, Stephen E. Darby, Robert Marsh, Nikolaos Skliris, and Joël J.-M. Hirschi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3627–3649, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3627-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3627-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We look at how compound flooding from the combination of river flooding and storm tides (storm surge and astronomical tide) may be changing over time due to climate change, with a case study of the Mekong River delta. We found that future compound flooding has the potential to flood the region more extensively and be longer lasting than compound floods today. This is useful to know because it means managers of deltas such as the Mekong can assess options for improving existing flood defences.
Maryam Pakdehi, Ebrahim Ahmadisharaf, Behzad Nazari, and Eunsaem Cho
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3537–3559, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3537-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3537-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Machine learning (ML) algorithms have increasingly received attention for modeling flood events. However, there are concerns about the transferability of these models (their capability in predicting out-of-sample and unseen events). Here, we show that ML models can be transferable for hindcasting maximum river flood depths across extreme events (four hurricanes) in a large coastal watershed (HUC6) when informed by the spatial distribution of pertinent features and underlying physical processes.
María Carmen Llasat, Montserrat Llasat-Botija, Erika Pardo, Raül Marcos-Matamoros, and Marc Lemus-Canovas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3423–3443, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3423-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3423-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper shows the first public and systematic dataset of flood episodes referring to the entire Pyrenees massif, at municipal scale, named PIRAGUA_flood. Of the 181 flood events (1981–2015) that produced 154 fatalities, 36 were transnational, with the eastern part of the massif most affected. Dominant weather types show a southern component flow, with a talweg on the Iberian Peninsula and a depression in the vicinity. A positive and significant trend was found in Nouvelle-Aquitaine.
Ina Pohle, Sarah Zeilfelder, Johannes Birner, and Benjamin Creutzfeldt
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-187, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-187, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change, the lignite mining phase-out, and structural changes challenge Berlin's water resources management. The 2018–2023 drought uniquely impacted temperature, precipitation, groundwater, and surface water. Reduced water availability and rising demand are creating latent water quality problems. Addressing these challenges requires extensive measures in Berlin and its surrounding areas.
Colin M. Zarzycki, Benjamin D. Ascher, Alan M. Rhoades, and Rachel R. McCrary
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3315–3335, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3315-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3315-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We developed an automated workflow to detect rain-on-snow events, which cause flooding in the northeastern United States, in climate data. Analyzing the Susquehanna River basin, this technique identified known events affecting river flow. Comparing four gridded datasets revealed variations in event frequency and severity, driven by different snowmelt and runoff estimates. This highlights the need for accurate climate data in flood management and risk prediction for these compound extremes.
Dongyu Feng, Zeli Tan, Darren Engwirda, Jonathan D. Wolfe, Donghui Xu, Chang Liao, Gautam Bisht, James J. Benedict, Tian Zhou, Mithun Deb, Hong-Yi Li, and L. Ruby Leung
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2785, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2785, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study explores how riverine and coastal flooding during hurricanes is influenced by the interaction of atmosphere, land, river and ocean conditions. Using an advanced Earth system model, we simulate Hurricane Irene to evaluate how meteorological and hydrological uncertainties affect flood modeling. Our findings reveal the importance of a multi-component modeling system, how hydrological conditions play critical roles in flood modeling, and greater flood risks if multiple factors are present.
Anne F. Van Loon, Sarra Kchouk, Alessia Matanó, Faranak Tootoonchi, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Khalid E. A. Hassaballah, Minchao Wu, Marthe L. K. Wens, Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Elena Ridolfi, Riccardo Biella, Viorica Nagavciuc, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Ana Bastos, Louise Cavalcante, Franciska T. de Vries, Margaret Garcia, Johanna Mård, Ileen N. Streefkerk, Claudia Teutschbein, Roshanak Tootoonchi, Ruben Weesie, Valentin Aich, Juan P. Boisier, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Yiheng Du, Mauricio Galleguillos, René Garreaud, Monica Ionita, Sina Khatami, Johanna K. L. Koehler, Charles H. Luce, Shreedhar Maskey, Heidi D. Mendoza, Moses N. Mwangi, Ilias G. Pechlivanidis, Germano G. Ribeiro Neto, Tirthankar Roy, Robert Stefanski, Patricia Trambauer, Elizabeth A. Koebele, Giulia Vico, and Micha Werner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3173–3205, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3173-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3173-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Drought is a creeping phenomenon but is often still analysed and managed like an isolated event, without taking into account what happened before and after. Here, we review the literature and analyse five cases to discuss how droughts and their impacts develop over time. We find that the responses of hydrological, ecological, and social systems can be classified into four types and that the systems interact. We provide suggestions for further research and monitoring, modelling, and management.
Sheik Umar Jam-Jalloh, Jia Liu, Yicheng Wang, and Yuchen Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3155–3172, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3155-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3155-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our paper explores improving flood forecasting using advanced weather and hydrological models. By coupling the WRF model with WRF-Hydro and HEC-HMS, we achieved more accurate forecasts. WRF–WRF-Hydro excels for short, intense storms, while WRF–HEC-HMS is better for longer, evenly distributed storms. Our research shows how these models provide insights for adaptive atmospheric–hydrologic systems and aims to boost flood preparedness and response with more reliable, timely predictions.
Shahin Khosh Bin Ghomash, Patricio Yeste, Heiko Apel, and Viet Dung Nguyen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-77, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-77, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrodynamic models are vital for predicting floods, like those in Germany's Ahr region in July 2021. We refine an RIM2D model for the Ahr region, analyzing the impact of various factors using Monte Carlo simulations. Accurate parameter assignment is crucial, with channel roughness and resolution playing key roles. Coarser resolutions are suitable for flood extent predictions, aiding early warning systems. Our work provides guidelines for optimizing hydrodynamic models in the Ahr region.
Joshua Dorrington, Marta Wenta, Federico Grazzini, Linus Magnusson, Frederic Vitart, and Christian M. Grams
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2995–3012, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2995-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2995-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme rainfall is the leading weather-related source of damages in Europe, but it is still difficult to predict on long timescales. A recent example of this was the devastating floods in the Italian region of Emiglia Romagna in May 2023. We present perspectives based on large-scale dynamical information that allows us to better understand and predict such events.
Alison L. Kay, Nick Dunstone, Gillian Kay, Victoria A. Bell, and Jamie Hannaford
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2953–2970, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2953-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2953-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological hazards affect people and ecosystems, but extremes are not fully understood due to limited observations. A large climate ensemble and simple hydrological model are used to assess unprecedented but plausible floods and droughts. The chain gives extreme flows outside the observed range: summer 2022 ~ 28 % lower and autumn 2023 ~ 42 % higher. Spatial dependence and temporal persistence are analysed. Planning for such events could help water supply resilience and flood risk management.
Fenglin Xu, Yong Liu, Guoqing Zhang, Ping Zhao, R. Iestyn Woolway, Yani Zhu, Jianting Ju, Tao Zhou, Xue Wang, and Wenfeng Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-127, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-127, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Glacial lake outbursts have been widely studied, but large inland lake outbursts have received less attention. Recently, with the rapid expansion of inland lakes, signs of potential outbursts have increased. However, the processes, causes, and mechanisms are still not well understood. Here, the outburst processes were investigated using a combination of field surveys, remote sensing mapping, and hydrodynamic modelling. The causes and mechanisms that triggered the two events were investigated.
Viet Dung Nguyen, Jeroen Aerts, Max Tesselaar, Wouter Botzen, Heidi Kreibich, Lorenzo Alfieri, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2923–2937, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2923-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2923-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study explored how seasonal flood forecasts could enhance insurance premium accuracy. Insurers traditionally rely on historical data, yet climate fluctuations influence flood risk. We employed a method that predicts seasonal floods to adjust premiums accordingly. Our findings showed significant year-to-year variations in flood risk and premiums, underscoring the importance of adaptability. Despite limitations, this research aids insurers in preparing for evolving risks.
Shahin Khosh Bin Ghomash, Heiko Apel, and Daniel Caviedes-Voullième
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2857–2874, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2857-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2857-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Early warning is essential to minimise the impact of flash floods. We explore the use of highly detailed flood models to simulate the 2021 flood event in the lower Ahr valley (Germany). Using very high-resolution models resolving individual streets and buildings, we produce detailed, quantitative, and actionable information for early flood warning systems. Using state-of-the-art computational technology, these models can guarantee very fast forecasts which allow for sufficient time to respond.
Andrea Betterle and Peter Salamon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2817–2836, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2817-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2817-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study proposes a new framework, named FLEXTH, to estimate flood water depth and improve satellite-based flood monitoring using topographical data. FLEXTH is readily available as a computer code, offering a practical and scalable solution for estimating flood depth quickly and systematically over large areas. The methodology can reduce the impacts of floods and enhance emergency response efforts, particularly where resources are limited.
Francisco Javier Gomez, Keighobad Jafarzadegan, Hamed Moftakhari, and Hamid Moradkhani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2647–2665, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2647-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2647-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study utilizes the global copula Bayesian model averaging technique for accurate and reliable flood modeling, especially in coastal regions. By integrating multiple precipitation datasets within this framework, we can effectively address sources of error in each dataset, leading to the generation of probabilistic flood maps. The creation of these probabilistic maps is essential for disaster preparedness and mitigation in densely populated areas susceptible to extreme weather events.
Manuel Grenier, Mathieu Boudreault, David A. Carozza, Jérémie Boudreault, and Sébastien Raymond
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2577–2595, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2577-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2577-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Modelling floods at the street level for large countries like Canada and the United States is difficult and very costly. However, many applications do not necessarily require that level of detail. As a result, we present a flood modelling framework built with artificial intelligence for socioeconomic studies like trend and scenarios analyses. We find for example that an increase of 10 % in average precipitation yields an increase in displaced population of 18 % in Canada and 14 % in the US.
Helge Bormann, Jenny Kebschull, Lidia Gaslikova, and Ralf Weisse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2559–2576, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2559-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2559-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Inland flooding is threatening coastal lowlands. If rainfall and storm surges coincide, the risk of inland flooding increases. We examine how such compound events are influenced by climate change. Data analysis and model-based scenario analysis show that climate change induces an increasing frequency and intensity of compounding precipitation and storm tide events along the North Sea coast. Overload of inland drainage systems will also increase if no timely adaptation measures are taken.
Nazir Ahmed Bazai, Mehtab Alam, Peng Cui, Wang Hao, Adil Poshad Khan, Muhammad Waseem, Yao Shunyu, Muhammad Ramzan, Li Wanhong, and Tashfain Ahmed
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-95, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-95, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines the 2022 monsoon in the Swat River basin, Pakistan, where record rainfall exceeded averages by 7–8 %, causing catastrophic debris flows and floods. These events worsened challenges for low-income communities, resulting in extensive damage and financial instability. Field investigations, remote sensing, and simulations identified deforestation and steep topography as key factors. The study advocates for disaster mitigation, reforestation, and better land use planning.
Yanxia Shen, Zhenduo Zhu, Qi Zhou, and Chunbo Jiang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2315–2330, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2315-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2315-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present an improved Multigrid Dynamical Bidirectional Coupled hydrologic–hydrodynamic Model (IM-DBCM) with two major improvements: (1) automated non-uniform mesh generation based on the D-infinity algorithm was implemented to identify flood-prone areas where high-resolution inundation conditions are needed, and (2) ghost cells and bilinear interpolation were implemented to improve numerical accuracy in interpolating variables between the coarse and fine grids. The improved model was reliable.
Taylor Glen Johnson, Jorge Leandro, and Divine Kwaku Ahadzie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2285–2302, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2285-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2285-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Reliance on infrastructure creates vulnerabilities to disruptions caused by natural hazards. To assess the impacts of natural hazards on the performance of infrastructure, we present a framework for quantifying resilience and develop a model of recovery based upon an application of project scheduling under resource constraints. The resilience framework and recovery model were applied in a case study to assess the resilience of building infrastructure to flooding hazards in Accra, Ghana.
Arnau Amengual, Romu Romero, María Carmen Llasat, Alejandro Hermoso, and Montserrat Llasat-Botija
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2215–2242, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2215-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2215-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
On 22 October 2019, the Francolí River basin experienced a heavy precipitation event, resulting in a catastrophic flash flood. Few studies comprehensively address both the physical and human dimensions and their interrelations during extreme flash flooding. This research takes a step forward towards filling this gap in knowledge by examining the alignment among all these factors.
Paul Voit and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2147–2164, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2147-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2147-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To identify flash flood potential in Germany, we shifted the most extreme rainfall events from the last 22 years systematically across Germany and simulated the consequent runoff reaction. Our results show that almost all areas in Germany have not seen the worst-case scenario of flood peaks within the last 22 years. With a slight spatial change of historical rainfall events, flood peaks of a factor of 2 or more would be achieved for most areas. The results can aid disaster risk management.
Günter Blöschl, Andreas Buttinger-Kreuzhuber, Daniel Cornel, Julia Eisl, Michael Hofer, Markus Hollaus, Zsolt Horváth, Jürgen Komma, Artem Konev, Juraj Parajka, Norbert Pfeifer, Andreas Reithofer, José Salinas, Peter Valent, Roman Výleta, Jürgen Waser, Michael H. Wimmer, and Heinz Stiefelmeyer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2071–2091, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2071-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2071-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A methodology of regional flood hazard mapping is proposed, based on data in Austria, which combines automatic methods with manual interventions to maximise efficiency and to obtain estimation accuracy similar to that of local studies. Flood discharge records from 781 stations are used to estimate flood hazard patterns of a given return period at a resolution of 2 m over a total stream length of 38 000 km. The hazard maps are used for civil protection, risk awareness and insurance purposes.
Christoph Nathanael von Matt, Regula Muelchi, Lukas Gudmundsson, and Olivia Martius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1975–2001, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1975-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1975-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The simultaneous occurrence of meteorological (precipitation), agricultural (soil moisture), and hydrological (streamflow) drought can lead to augmented impacts. By analysing drought indices derived from the newest climate scenarios for Switzerland (CH2018, Hydro-CH2018), we show that with climate change the concurrence of all drought types will increase in all studied regions of Switzerland. Our results stress the benefits of and need for both mitigation and adaptation measures at early stages.
Melody Gwyneth Whitehead and Mark Stephen Bebbington
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1929–1935, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1929-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1929-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Precipitation-driven hazards including floods, landslides, and lahars can be catastrophic and difficult to forecast due to high uncertainty around future weather patterns. This work presents a stochastic weather model that produces statistically similar (realistic) rainfall over long time periods at minimal computational cost. These data provide much-needed inputs for hazard simulations to support long-term, time and spatially varying risk assessments.
Jan Sodoge, Christian Kuhlicke, Miguel D. Mahecha, and Mariana Madruga de Brito
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1757–1777, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1757-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1757-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We delved into the socio-economic impacts of the 2018–2022 drought in Germany. We derived a dataset covering the impacts of droughts in Germany between 2000 and 2022 on sectors such as agriculture and forestry based on newspaper articles. Notably, our study illustrated that the longer drought had a wider reach and more varied effects. We show that dealing with longer droughts requires different plans compared to shorter ones, and it is crucial to be ready for the challenges they bring.
Mario Di Bacco, Daniela Molinari, and Anna Rita Scorzini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1681–1696, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1681-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1681-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
INSYDE 2.0 is a tool for modelling flood damage to residential buildings. By incorporating ultra-detailed survey and desk-based data, it improves the reliability and informativeness of damage assessments while addressing input data uncertainties.
Théo St. Pierre Ostrander, Thomé Kraus, Bruno Mazzorana, Johannes Holzner, Andrea Andreoli, Francesco Comiti, and Bernhard Gems
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1607–1634, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1607-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1607-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Mountain river confluences are hazardous during localized flooding events. A physical model was used to determine the dominant controls over mountain confluences. Contrary to lowland confluences, in mountain regions, the channel discharges and (to a lesser degree) the tributary sediment concentration control morphological patterns. Applying conclusions drawn from lowland confluences could misrepresent depositional and erosional patterns and the related flood hazard at mountain river confluences.
Nils Poncet, Philippe Lucas-Picher, Yves Tramblay, Guillaume Thirel, Humberto Vergara, Jonathan Gourley, and Antoinette Alias
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1163–1183, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1163-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1163-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
High-resolution convection-permitting climate models (CPMs) are now available to better simulate rainstorm events leading to flash floods. In this study, two hydrological models are compared to simulate floods in a Mediterranean basin, showing a better ability of the CPM to reproduce flood peaks compared to coarser-resolution climate models. Future projections are also different, with a projected increase for the most severe floods and a potential decrease for the most frequent events.
Wilson C. H. Chan, Nigel W. Arnell, Geoff Darch, Katie Facer-Childs, Theodore G. Shepherd, and Maliko Tanguy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1065–1078, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1065-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The most recent drought in the UK was declared in summer 2022. We pooled a large sample of plausible winters from seasonal hindcasts and grouped them into four clusters based on their atmospheric circulation configurations. Drought storylines representative of what the drought could have looked like if winter 2022/23 resembled each winter circulation storyline were created to explore counterfactuals of how bad the 2022 drought could have been over winter 2022/23 and beyond.
Dino Collalti, Nekeisha Spencer, and Eric Strobl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 873–890, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-873-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-873-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The risk of extreme rainfall events causing floods is likely increasing with climate change. Flash floods, which follow immediately after extreme rainfall, are particularly difficult to forecast and assess. We develop a decision rule for flash flood classification with data on all incidents between 2001 and 2018 in Jamaica with the statistical copula method. This decision rule tells us for any rainfall event of a certain duration how intense it has to be to likely trigger a flash flood.
Ivan Vorobevskii, Thi Thanh Luong, and Rico Kronenberg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 681–697, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-681-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-681-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a new version of a framework which allows us to model water balance components at any site on a local scale. Compared with the first version, the second incorporates new datasets used to set up and force the model. In particular, we highlight the ability of the framework to provide seasonal forecasts. This gives potential stakeholders (farmers, foresters, policymakers, etc.) the possibility to forecast, for example, soil moisture drought and thus apply the necessary measures.
Laurence Hawker, Jeffrey Neal, James Savage, Thomas Kirkpatrick, Rachel Lord, Yanos Zylberberg, Andre Groeger, Truong Dang Thuy, Sean Fox, Felix Agyemang, and Pham Khanh Nam
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 539–566, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-539-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a global flood model built using a new terrain data set and evaluated in the Central Highlands of Vietnam.
Andrea Abbate, Leonardo Mancusi, Francesco Apadula, Antonella Frigerio, Monica Papini, and Laura Longoni
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 501–537, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-501-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-501-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
CRHyME (Climatic Rainfall Hydrogeological Modelling Experiment) is a new physically based and spatially distributed rainfall-runoff model. The main novelties consist of reproducing rainfall-induced geo-hydrological hazards such as shallow landslide, debris flow and watershed erosion through a multi-hazard approach. CRHyME was written in Python, works at a high spatial and temporal resolution, and is a tool suitable for quantifying extreme rainfall consequences at the basin scale.
Leanne Archer, Jeffrey Neal, Paul Bates, Emily Vosper, Dereka Carroll, Jeison Sosa, and Daniel Mitchell
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 375–396, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-375-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-375-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We model hurricane-rainfall-driven flooding to assess how the number of people exposed to flooding changes in Puerto Rico under the 1.5 and 2 °C Paris Agreement goals. Our analysis suggests 8 %–10 % of the population is currently exposed to flooding on average every 5 years, increasing by 2 %–15 % and 1 %–20 % at 1.5 and 2 °C. This has implications for adaptation to more extreme flooding in Puerto Rico and demonstrates that 1.5 °C climate change carries a significant increase in risk.
Cited articles
Agência Portuguesa do Ambiente: Plano De Gestão De Região Hidrográfica. Parte 2 – Caracterização E Diagnóstico. Região Hidrográfica Do Tejo e Ribeiras do Oeste (RH5), Agência Portuguesa do Ambiente, Ministério do Ambiente e da Transição Energética, Lisbon, Portugal, https://apambiente.pt/sites/default/files/_Agua/DRH/ParticipacaoPublica/PGRH/2016-2021/3_Fase/PGRH_2_RH5A_Parte2.pdf (last access: July 2023), 2016.
Alfieri, L., Burek, P., Feyen, L., and Forzieri, G.: Global warming increases the frequency of river floods in Europe, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2247–2260, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-2247-2015, 2015.
Alfieri, L., Bisselink, B., Dottori, F., Naumann, G., de Roo, A., Salamon, P., Wyser, K., and Feyen, L.: Global projections of river flood risk in a warmer world, Earths Future, 5, 171–182, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016EF000485, 2017.
Arnell, N. W. and Gosling, S. N.: The impacts of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale, Climatic Change, 134, 387–401, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1084-5, 2016.
Becek, K., Koppe, W., and Kutoğlu, Ş. H.: Evaluation of vertical accuracy of the WorldDEM™ using the runway method, Remote Sens.-UK, 8, 934, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs8110934, 2016.
Benito, G., Machado, M. J., and Pérez González, A.: Climate change and flood sensivity in Spain, in: Global continental Changes: the context of palaeohydrology, edited by: Brarndson, J., Brown, A. G., and Gregory, K. L., Geological Society Special Publication no. 115, 85–98, Geological Society, London, https://doi.org/10.1144/GSL.SP.1996.115.01.08, 1996.
Benito, G., Díez-Herrero, A., and de Villalta, M.: Magnitude and frequency of flooding in the Tagus Basin (Central Spain) over the last millennium, Climatic Change, 58, 171–192, 2003.
Bermúdez, M., Farfán, J. F., Willems, P., and Cea, L.: Assessing the Effects of Climate Change on Compound Flooding in Coastal River Areas, Water Resour. Res., 57, e2020WR029321, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR029321, 2021.
Beven, K.: Rainfall-Runoff Modelling: The Primer, 2nd edn., Wiley-Blackwell, Chichester, UK, ISBN 978-1-119-95101-8, 2012.
Bladé, E., Cea, L., Corestein, G., Escolano, E., Puertas, J., Vázquez-Cendón, E., Dolz, J., and Coll, A.: Iber – River modelling simulation tool [Iber: herramienta de simulación numérica del flujo en ríos], Rev. Int. Metod. Numer., 30, 1–10, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rimni.2012.07.004, 2014.
Bonasia, R. and Ceragene, M.: Hydraulic numerical simulations of La Sabana river floodplain, Mexico, as a tool for a flood terrain response analysis, Water, 13, 3516, https://doi.org/10.3390/w13243516, 2021.
Carrera-Hernandez, J. J.: Not all DEMs are equal: An evaluation of six globally available 30 m resolution DEMs with geodetic benchmarks and LiDAR in Mexico, Remote Sens. Environ., 261, 112474, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2021.112474, 2021.
Chang, L. C., Chang, F. J., and Hsu, H. C.: Real-time reservoir operation for flood control using artificial intelligent techniques, Int. J. Nonlin. Sci. Num., 11, 887–902, https://doi.org/10.1515/IJNSNS.2010.11.11.887, 2010.
Chou, F. N. F. and Wu, C. W.: Stage-wise optimizing operating rules for flood control in a multi-purpose reservoir, J. Hydrol., 521, 245–260, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.11.073, 2015.
CLC: European Union, Copernicus Land Monitoring Service 2000, European Environment Agency (EEA), https://land.copernicus.eu/ (last access: November 2023), 2000.
Courant, R., Friedrichs, K., and Lewy, H.: On the partial difference equations of mathematical physics, IBM J. Res. Dev., 11, 215–234, https://doi.org/10.1147/rd.112.0215, 1967.
Courty, L. G., Soriano-Monzalvo, J. C., and Pedrozo-Acuña, A.: Evaluation of open-access global digital elevation models (AW3D30, SRTM, and ASTER) for flood modelling purposes, J. Flood Risk Manag., 12, e12550, https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12550, 2019.
Cox, R. J., Shand, T. D., and Blacka, M. J.: Australian Rainfall and Runoff revision project 10: appropriate safety criteria for people, Water Research Laboratory, P10/S1/006, ISBN 978-085825-9454, 2010.
Dankers, R. and Feyen, L.: Climate change impact on flood hazard in Europe: An assessment based on high-resolution climate simulations, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 113, D19105, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD009719, 2008.
Diakakis, M.: Have flood mortality qualitative characteristics changed during the last decades? The case study of Greece, Environ. Hazards-UK, 15, 148–159, https://doi.org/10.1080/17477891.2016.1147412, 2016.
Escartín, C. M.: The Agreement between Spain and Portugal for the Sustainable Development of the Shared River Basins, in: International Conference of Basin Organizations, 4–6 November 2002, Madrid, Spain, 2022.
Fakhruddin, S. H. M., Kawasaki, A., and Babel, M. S.: Community responses to flood early warning system: Case study in Kaijuri Union, Bangladesh, Int. J. Disast. Risk Re., 14, 323–331, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2015.08.004, 2015.
Fernández-Nóvoa, D., deCastro, M., Des, M., Costoya, X., Mendes, R., and Gómez-Gesteira, M.: Characterization of Iberian turbid plumes by means of synoptic patterns obtained through MODIS imagery, J. Sea Res., 126, 12–25, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seares.2017.06.013, 2017.
Fernández-Nóvoa, D., García-Feal, O., González-Cao, J., de Gonzalo, C., Rodríguez-Suárez, J. A., Ruiz del Portal, C., and Gómez Gesteira, M.: MIDAS: A New Integrated Flood Early Warning System for the Miño River, Water, 12, 2319, https://doi.org/10.3390/w12092319, 2020.
Fraga, I., Cea, L., and Puertas, J.: MERLIN: a flood hazard forecasting system for coastal river reaches, Nat. Hazards, 100, 1171–1193, https://doi.org/10.3390/w12092319, 2020.
García-Feal, O., González-Cao, J., Gomez-Gesteira, M., Cea, L., Domínguez, J. M., and Formella, A.: An accelerated tool for flood modelling based on Iber, Water, 10, 1459, https://doi.org/10.3390/w10101459, 2018.
Garrote, J.: Free Global DEMs and Flood Modelling – A Comparison Analysis for the January 2015 Flooding Event in Mocuba City (Mozambique), Water, 14, 176, https://doi.org/10.3390/w14020176, 2022.
González-Cao, J., García-Feal, O., Fernández-Nóvoa, D., Domínguez-Alonso, J. M., and Gómez-Gesteira, M.: Towards an automatic early warning system of flood hazards based on precipitation forecast: the case of the Miño River (NW Spain), Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2583–2595, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2583-2019, 2019.
González-Cao, J., Fernández-Nóvoa, D., García-Feal, O., Figueira, J. R., Vaquero, J. M., Trigo, R. M., and Gómez-Gesteira, M.: Numerical reconstruction of historical extreme floods: The Guadiana event of 1876, J. Hydrol., 599, 126292, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126292, 2021.
González-Cao, J., Fernández-Nóvoa, D., García-Feal, O., Figueira, J. R., Vaquero, J. M., Trigo, R. M., and Gómez-Gesteira, M.: The Rivillas flood of 5–6 November 1997 (Badajoz, Spain) revisited: An approach based on Iber+ modelling, J. Hydrol., 610, 127883, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.127883, 2022.
Guth, P. L. and Geoffroy, T. M.: LiDAR point cloud and ICESat-2 evaluation of 1 s global digital elevation models: Copernicus wins, T. GIS, 25, 2245–2261, https://doi.org/10.1111/tgis.12825, 2021.
Hardesty, S., Shen, X., Nikolopoulos, E., and Anagnostou, E.: A numerical framework for evaluating flood inundation hazard under different dam operation scenarios – A case study in Naugatuck river, Water, 10, 1798, https://doi.org/10.3390/w10121798, 2018.
Hasebe, M. and Nagayama, Y.: Reservoir operation using the neural network and fuzzy systems for dam control and operation support, Adv. Eng. Softw., 33, 245–260, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0965-9978(02)00015-7, 2002.
Herrera, S., Cardoso, R. M., Soares, P. M. M., Espírio-Santo, F., Viterbo, P., and Gutiérrez, J. M.: Iberia01: Daily gridded (0.1∘ resolution) dataset of precipitation and temperatures over the Iberian Peninsula, DIGITAL.CSIC, https://doi.org/10.20350/digitalCSIC/8641, 2019.
Huizinga, J., De Moel, H., and Szewczyk, W.: Global flood depth-damage functions: Methodology and the database with guidelines, Joint Research Centre, JRC105688, (Seville site), https://doi.org/10.2760/16510, 2017.
Iber: General information, https://www.iberaula.es/54/iber-model/downloads (last access: November 2023), 2023.
IPCC: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Field, C. B., Barros, V., Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Dokken, D. J., Ebi, K. L., Mastrandrea, M. D., Mach, K. J., Plattner, G.-K., Allen, S. K., Tignor, M., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, 582 pp., ISBN 978-1-107-02506-6, 2012.
IPCC: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896, 2021.
Jaafar, H. H., Ahmad, F. A., and El Beyrouthy, M.: GCN250, new global gridded curve numbers for hydrologic modeling and design, Scientific Data, 6, 1–9, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-019-0155-x, 2019.
Jongman, B.: Effective adaptation to rising flood risk, Nat. Commun., 9, 1–3, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-04396-1, 2018.
Karlsson, J. M. and Arnberg, W.: Quality analysis of SRTM and HYDRO1K: a case study of flood inundation in Mozambique, Int. J. Remote Sens., 32, 267–285, https://doi.org/10.1080/01431160903464112, 2011.
Lee, S. Y., Hamlet, A. F., Fitzgerald, C. J., and Burges, S. J.: Optimized flood control in the Columbia River Basin for a global warming scenario, J. Water Res. Plan. Man., 135, 440–450, 2009.
Lei, X., Zhang, J., Wang, H., Wang, M., Khu, S. T., Li, Z., and Tan, Q.: Deriving mixed reservoir operating rules for flood control based on weighted non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II, J. Hydrol., 564, 967–983, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.07.075, 2018.
Lopes, C. L., Sousa, M. C., and Ribeiro, A.: Evaluation of future estuarine floods in a sea level rise context, Sci. Rep.-UK, 12, 8083, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-12122-7, 2022.
Lorenzo, M. N. and Alvarez, I.: Climate change patterns in precipitation over Spain using CORDEX projections for 2021–2050, Sci. Total Environ., 723, 138024, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138024, 2020.
Loureiro, J. M.: Rio Tejo. As Grandes Cheigas, 1800–2007, Tágides, ISBN 978-989-96162-0-2, 2007.
Mockus, V.: National engineering handbook, US Soil Conservation Service, Washington, DC, USA, 4, https://www.irrigationtoolbox.com/NEH/Part630Hydrology/neh630-ch21.pdf (last access: July 2023), 1964.
Modarres, R., Sarhadi, A., and Burn, D. H.: Changes of extreme drought and flood events in Iran, Global Planet. Change, 144, 67–81, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.07.008, 2016.
Mukherjee, S., Joshi, P. K., Mukherjee, S., Ghosh, A., Garg, R. D., and Mukhopadhyay, A.: Evaluation of vertical accuracy of open source Digital Elevation Model (DEM), Int. J. Appl. Earth Obs., 21, 205–217, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2012.09.004, 2013.
Muñoz, D. F., Abbaszadeh, P., Moftakhari, H., and Moradkhani, H.: Accounting for uncertainties in compound flood hazard assessment: The value of data assimilation, Coast. Eng., 171, 104057, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coastaleng.2021.104057, 2022.
Patel, D. P., Ramirez, J. A., Srivastava, P. K., Bray, M., and Han, D.: Assessment of flood inundation mapping of Surat city by coupled 1D/2D hydrodynamic modeling: a case application of the new HEC-RAS 5, Nat. Hazards, 89, 93–130, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-017-2956-6, 2017.
Pathan, A. I., Agnihotri, P. G., and Patel, D.: Integrated approach of AHP and TOPSIS (MCDM) techniques with GIS for dam site suitability mapping: a case study of Navsari City, Gujarat, India, Environ. Earth Sci., 81, 443, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-022-10568-6, 2022.
Peixoto, J. P. and Oort, A. H.: Physics of Climate, American Institute of Physics, New York, NY, 412–433, https://doi.org/10.1063/1.2809772, 1992.
Pereira, S., Ramos, A. M., Zêzere, J. L., Trigo, R. M., and Vaquero, J. M.: Spatial impact and triggering conditions of the exceptional hydro-geomorphological event of December 1909 in Iberia, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 371–390, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-371-2016, 2016.
Petrow, T. and Merz, B.: Trends in flood magnitude, frequency and seasonality in Germany in the period 1951–2002, J. Hydrol., 371, 129–141, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.03.024, 2009.
Prieto, C., Patel, D., and Han, D.: Preface: Advances in flood risk assessment and management, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1045–1048, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1045-2020, 2020.
Ramos, A. M., Trigo, R. M., and Liberato, M. L.: A ranking of high-resolution daily precipitation extreme events for the Iberian Peninsula, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 15, 328–334, https://doi.org/10.1002/asl2.507, 2014.
Ramos, A. M., Trigo, R. M., Liberato, M. L. R., and Tome, R.: Daily precipitation extreme events in the Iberian Peninsula and its association with Atmospheric Rivers, J. Hydrometeorol., 16, 579–597, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-14-0103.1, 2015.
Ramos, A. M., Trigo, R. M., and Liberato, M. L.: Ranking of multi-day extreme precipitation events over the Iberian Peninsula, Int. J. Climatol., 37, 607–620, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4726, 2017.
Ramos, A. M., Sousa, P. M., Dutra, E., and Trigo, R. M.: Predictive skill for atmospheric rivers in the western Iberian Peninsula, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 877–888, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-877-2020, 2020.
Ramos, C. and Reis, E.: As cheias no Sul de Portugal em diferentes tipos de bacias hidrográficas, Finisterra, 36, 61–82, 2001.
Rebelo, L., Ramos, A. M., Pereira, S., and Trigo, R. M.: Meteorological Driving Mechanisms and Human Impacts of the February 1979 Extreme Hydro-Geomorphological Event in Western Iberia, Water, 10, 454, https://doi.org/10.3390/w10040454, 2018.
Ridolfi, E., Di Francesco, S., Pandolfo, C., Berni, N., Biscarini, C., and Manciola, P.: Coping with extreme events: Effect of different reservoir operation strategies on flood inundation maps, Water, 11, 982, https://doi.org/10.3390/w11050982, 2019.
Rocha, C., Antunes, C., and Catita, C.: Coastal Vulnerability Assessment Due to Sea Level Rise: The Case Study of the Atlantic Coast of Mainland Portugal, Water, 12, 360, https://doi.org/10.3390/w12020360, 2020.
Salgueiro, A. R., Machado, M. J., Barriendos, M., García Perira, H., and Benito, G.: Flood magnitudes in the Tagus River (Iberian Peninsula) and its stochastic relationship with daily North Atlantic Oscillation since mid-19th Century, J. Hydrol., 502, 191–201, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.08.008, 2013.
Santillán, D., Cueto-Felqueroso, L., Sordo-Ward, A., and Garrote, L.: Influence of Erodible Beds on Shallow Water Hydrodynamics during Flood Events, Water, 12, 3340, https://doi.org/10.3390/w12123340, 2020.
Santos, M., Fragoso, M., and Santos, J. A.: Damaging flood severity assessment in Northern Portugal over more than 150 years (1865–2016), Nat. Hazards, 91, 983–1002, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-017-3166-y, 2018.
Shah, Z., Saraswat, A., Samal, D. R., and Patel, D.: A single interface for rainfall-runoff simulation and flood assessment-a case of new capability of HEC-RAS for flood assessment and management, Arab. J. Geosci., 15, 1526, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-022-10721-2, 2022.
Shrestha, B. B. and Kawasaki, A.: Quantitative assessment of flood risk with evaluation of the effectiveness of dam operation for flood control: A case of the Bago River Basin of Myanmar, Int. J. Disast. Risk Re., 50, 101707, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101707, 2020.
Szabó, G., Singh, S. K., and Szabó, S.: Slope angle and aspect as influencing factors on the accuracy of the SRTM and the ASTER GDEM databases, Phys. Chem. Earth Pt. A/B/C, 83, 137–145, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2015.06.003, 2015.
Taylor, K. E.: Summarizing multiple aspects of model performance in a single diagram, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 106, 7183–7192, https://doi.org/10.1029/2000JD900719, 2001.
Thompson, J. A., Bell, J. C., and Butler, C. A.: Digital elevation model resolution: effects on terrain attribute calculation and quantitative soil-landscape modeling, Geoderma, 100, 67–89, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0016-7061(00)00081-1, 2001.
Trigo, I. F.: Climatology and interannual variability of storm-tracks in the Euro-Atlantic sector: a comparison between ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses, Clim. Dynam., 26, 127–143, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-005-0065-9, 2006.
Trigo, R. M. and DaCamara, C. C.: Circulation weather types and their influence on the precipitation regime in Portugal, Int. J. Climatol., 20, 1559–1581, https://doi.org/10.1002/1097-0088(20001115)20:13<1559::AID-JOC555>3.0.CO;2-5, 2000.
Trigo, R. M., Varino, F., Ramos, A. M., Valente, M. A., Zêzere, J. L., Vaquero, J. M., Gouveia, C. M., and Russo, A.: The record precipitation and flood event in Iberia in December 1876: description and synoptic analysis, Front. Earth Sci., 2, 3, https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2014.00003, 2014.
Tsakiris, G.: Flood risk assessment: concepts, modelling, applications, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1361–1369, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1361-2014, 2014.
Valeriano, O. C. S., Koike, T., Yang, K., and Yang, D.: Optimal dam operation during flood season using a distributed hydrological model and a heuristic algorithm, J. Hydrol. Eng., 15, 580–586, 2010.
Vargas, I. C. C., Oliveira, S. B. F., Oliveira, A., and Charneca, N.: Análise da Vulnerabilidade de uma Praia Estuarina à Inundação: Aplicação à Restinga do Alfeite (Estuário do Tejo), Revista da Gestão Costeira Integrada, 8, 25–43, 2008.
Wang, D.: A new probability density function for spatial distribution of soil water storage capacity leads to the SCS curve number method, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 6567–6578, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-6567-2018, 2018.
Wang, W., Yang, X., and Yao, T.: Evaluation of ASTER GDEM and SRTM and their suitability in hydraulic modelling of a glacial lake outburst flood in southeast Tibet, Hydrol. Process., 26, 213–225, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.8127, 2012.
Wijayarathne, D. B. and Coulibaly, P.: Identification of hydrological models for operational flood forecasting in St. John's, Newfoundland, Canada, J. Hydrol. Regional Studies, 27, 100646, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2019.100646, 2020.
Yan, K., Di Baldassarre, G., and Solomatine, D. P.: Exploring the potential of SRTM topographic data for flood inundation modelling under uncertainty, J. Hydroinform., 15, 849–861, https://doi.org/10.2166/hydro.2013.137, 2013.
Zêzere, J. L., Pereira, S., Tavares, A. O., Bateira, C., Trigo, R. M., Quaresma, I., Santos, P. P., Santos, M., and Verde, J.: DISASTER: A GIS database on hydro-geomorphologic disasters in Portugal, Nat. Hazards, 72, 503–532, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-1018-y, 2014.
Zhang, K., Shalehy, M. H., Ezaz, G. T., Chakraborty, A., Mohib, K. M., and Liu, L.: An integrated flood risk assessment approach based on couple hydrological-hydraulic modeling and bottom-up hazard vulnerability analysis, Environ. Modell. Softw., 148, 105279, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2021.105279, 2022.
Zhang, P., Liu, R., Bao, Y., Wang, J., Yu, W., and Shen, Z.: Uncertainty of SWAT model at different DEM resolutions in a large mountainous watershed, Water Res., 53, 132–144, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2014.01.018, 2014.
Short summary
The present study focuses on an in-depth analysis of floods in the lower section of the Tagus River from a hydrodynamic perspective by means of the Iber+ numerical model and on the development of dam operating strategies to mitigate flood episodes using the exceptional floods of February 1979 as a benchmark. The results corroborate the model's capability to evaluate floods in the study area and confirm the effectiveness of the proposed strategies to reduce flood impact in the lower Tagus valley.
The present study focuses on an in-depth analysis of floods in the lower section of the Tagus...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint