Articles | Volume 24, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-567-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-567-2024
Research article
 | 
15 Feb 2024
Research article |  | 15 Feb 2024

Evaluating pySTEPS optical flow algorithms for convection nowcasting over the Maritime Continent using satellite data

Joseph Smith, Cathryn Birch, John Marsham, Simon Peatman, Massimo Bollasina, and George Pankiewicz

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Cited articles

Ali, A., Supriatna, S., and Sa'adah, U.: Radar-Based Stochastic Precipitation Nowcasting Using The Short-Term Ensemble Prediction System (STEPS) (Case Study: Pangkalan Bun Weather Radar), International Journal of Remote Sensing and Earth Sciences, 18, 91, https://doi.org/10.30536/j.ijreses.2021.v18.a3527, 2021. 
Ayzel, G., Scheffer, T., and Heistermann, M.: RainNet v1.0: a convolutional neural network for radar-based precipitation nowcasting, Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 2631–2644, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-2631-2020, 2020. 
Bessho, K., Date, K., Hayashi, M., Ikeda, A., Imai, T., Inoue, H., Kumagai, Y., Miyakawa, T., Murata, H., Ohno, T., Okuyama, A., Oyama, R., Sasaki, Y., Shimazu, Y., Shimoji, K., Sumida, Y., Suzuki, M., Taniguchi, H., Tsuchiyama, H., Uesawa, D., Yokota, H., and Yoshida, R.: An Introduction to Himawari-8/9 — Japan's New-Generation Geostationary Meteorological Satellites, J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn., 94, 151–183, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2016-009, 2016. 
Birch, C. E., Webster, S., Peatman, S. C., Parker, D. J., Matthews, A. J., Li, Y., and Hassim, M. E. E.: Scale Interactions between the MJO and the Western Maritime Continent, J. Climate, 29, 2471–2492, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0557.1, 2016. 
Bowler, N. E., Pierce, C. E., and Seed, A. W.: STEPS: A probabilistic precipitation forecasting scheme which merges an extrapolation nowcast with downscaled NWP, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 132, 2127–2155, https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.04.100, 2006. 
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Short summary
Nowcasting uses observations to make predictions of the atmosphere on short timescales and is particularly applicable to the Maritime Continent, where storms rapidly develop and cause natural disasters. This paper evaluates probabilistic and deterministic satellite nowcasting algorithms over the Maritime Continent. We show that the probabilistic approach is most skilful at small scales (~ 60 km), whereas the deterministic approach is most skilful at larger scales (~ 200 km).
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